Predicting survival function and identifying associated factors in patients with renal insufficiency in the metropolitan area of Maringá, Paraná State, Brazil

A predição da função de sobrevivência e identificação de fatores associados em pacientes renais crônicos na área metropolitana de Maringá, Paraná, Brasil

Prediciendo la esperanza de vida e identificando factores asociados en pacientes con insuficiencia renal en el área metropolitana de Maringá, Estado de Paraná, Brasil

Renal insufficiency is a serious medical and public health problem worldwide. Recently, although many surveys have been developed to identify factors related to the lifetime of patients with renal insufficiency, controversial results from several studies suggest that researches should be conducted by region. Thus, in this study we aim to predict and identify factors associated with the lifetime of patients with chronic renal failure (CRF) in the metropolitan area of Maringá, Paraná State, Brazil, based on the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) framework. Data used in this study were collected from the Maringá Kidney Institute and comprehends 177 patients (classified with CRF and mostly being treated under the Brazilian Unified National Health System) enrolled in a hemodialysis program from 1978 up to 2010. By using this approach, we concluded that in other regions, gender, kidney transplant indicator, antibodies to hepatitis B and antibodies to hepatitis C are significant factors that affect the expected lifetime.

Survival Analysis; Renal Insufficiency; Kidney Diseases