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Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural

Print version ISSN 0103-2003


CRUZ JUNIOR, José César et al. O excesso de confiança dos produtores de milho no Brasil e o uso de contratos futuros. Rev. Econ. Sociol. Rural [online]. 2011, vol.49, n.2, pp.369-390. ISSN 0103-2003.

This paper aimed to identify signs of overconfidence among corn producers in the Southern and Central-Western regions in Brazil. Between October and November 2008, 90 farmers were chosen to answer questions regarding their knowledge of futures markets and price expectations. Most part of agents surveyed answered that they do not trade futures contracts because they do not have enough information. Results showed that respondents were miscalibrated when estimating directly-stated and the indirectly-stated expected prices. In addition, for most respondents, subjective variance for corn proves to be significantly less than the market variance, implying that producers perceive a risk that is lower than that of the market. Finally, the paper concludes that the overconfidence effect can partially explain the low use of futures markets by Brazilian corn producers to hedge their production.

Keywords : overconfidence; subjective probability; futures markets.

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