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Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural

Print version ISSN 0103-2003

Abstract

PIRES, Marcel Viana  and  CUNHA, Dênis Antônio da. Climate change and adaptive strategies in Brazil: the economic effects of genetic breeding. Rev. Econ. Sociol. Rural [online]. 2014, vol.52, n.4, pp.627-642. ISSN 0103-2003.  https://doi.org/10.1590/S0103-20032014000400001.

Plant breeding through the development of seeds resistant to water stress or high temperature is an important adaptive strategy to cope climate change. In this way, by providing an analysis of adaptation to climate change using genetic breeding on Brazilian farms, this work aims to investigate how climate change will affect the adoption of genetic breeding and profitability of farmers. Temperature and rainfall projections for 2010-2099 time periods were used, considering different climate scenarios (A1B and A2), according to the 4th Assessment Report of IPCC (2007). A Treatment Effects model outlines the analytical framework in this study. Our results indicate the probability of adopting transgenic seeds will grow from 74% in the current period to 86% in 2020, 83% in 2050, and 81% in 2080. Farmers adopting this adaptation strategy will have higher profits. Land value tends to be higher in both climate scenarios in counties with cultivated areas using transgenic seeds. Farmers adopting this adaptation measure will be less exposed to adverse effects of climate change. We conclude that it is necessary to invest in adaptation strategies so that Brazil can overcome adverse effects of global climate change.

Keywords : Climate change; adaptation; breeding; seeds; drought; heat.

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