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versão impressa ISSN 0103-4014versão On-line ISSN 1806-9592

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SOUZA, Amaury de  e  LAMOUNIER, Bolívar. The future of democracy: political-institutional scenarios until 2022. Estud. av. [online]. 2006, vol.20, n.56, pp.43-60. ISSN 0103-4014.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-40142006000100005.

THIS article reports the results of a political scenario-building exercise carried out by the Institute of Advanced Studies within the framework of a larger project sponsored by the federal government. The authors first draw a positive scenario, characterized by political stability, improvement of the party system and of the legislative machinery, and better social policies. Next they turn to two negative scenarios, under which the above-mentioned goals seem unlikely to be reached. The positive scenario is unlikely to come about without substantial political reforms. An effort is therefore made to analyze reform proposals debated in the country over the last two decades, with special reference to those aiming to strengthen the party system, improve Executive versus Legislative relations and increase accountability in the political system as a whole.

Palavras-chave : Democracy; Political & institutional scenarios; Delphi Method; Political reform; Public policies; Republican equilibrium; Conflictual fragmentation; Tutelary democracy; Electoral system; Party system; Government system.

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