SciELO - Scientific Electronic Library Online

 
vol.21 número3Índice estadual de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação como contribuição à melhoria da capacidade de gerência públicaMerchants and councilors: intellectual divergences in early 17th century British economic thought índice de autoresíndice de materiabúsqueda de artículos
Home Pagelista alfabética de revistas  

Nova Economia

versión impresa ISSN 0103-6351

Resumen

SANTIAGO, Flaviane Souza; MATTOS, Rogério Silva de  y  PEROBELLI, Fernando Salgueiro. Um modelo integrado econométrico+insumo-produto para previsão de longo prazo da demanda de combustíveis no Brasil. Nova econ. [online]. 2011, vol.21, n.3, pp. 423-455. ISSN 0103-6351.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-63512011000300005.

The article presents an integrated econometric + input - output model for generating long-run forecasts of fuel demand in Brazil. The model is based on the integration, by means of a linking strategy, of a vector error correction model with a hybrid input-output model for the Brazilian economy and is capable of forecasting on a yearly basis consumption of four groups of fuels: gas, diesel, fuel oil, and alcohol. In model development, the econometric and the integrated models underwent predictive tests, with the latter being calibrated for optimum performance, using data for the years 2004 to 2007. The integrated model is then used to generate forecasts from 2008 to 2017. The forecasts are based on two alternative scenarios, one predicting a short, and the other a long, duration for the current world economic crisis. The results indicate that under both scenarios a substantial increase of fuel demand is to be expected in the next 10 years

Palabras llave : econometrics; input-output; integrated model; energy; fuel.

        · resumen en Portugués     · texto en Portugués     · pdf en Portugués