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Ciência Rural

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Abstract

SAVIAN, Taciana Villela; MUNIZ, Joel Augusto; SAFADI, Thelma  and  SILVA, Fabyano Fonseca e. Bayesian analisys for ruminal degradability models. Cienc. Rural [online]. 2009, vol.39, n.7, pp. 2169-2177. ISSN 0103-8478.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0103-84782009000700033.

The bayesian methodology was used to estimate the parameters of ORSKOV & MCDONALD (1979) and MCDONALD (1981) models. A study was conducted by using both simulated and real data percentage of coastcross grass (Cynodon dactylon x Cynodon nlemfuensis) fiber degradation with neutral detergent fiber degradation over the time. The posterior marginal samples distributions for the parameters were obtained by Gibbs Sampler and Metropolis-Hastings algorithms. The bayesian approach, evaluated and verified by the simulation studied, has proved to be efficient and the parameter estimated were quite close to the parametric values. The parameters estimated for both models using bayesian approach from real data were fairly consistent with the values reported in the literature. The Orskov and McDonald model was more plausible than the description degradation data made by the McDonald model.

Keywords : nonlinear model; in situ degradability; MCMC methods; bayesian inference.

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