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Economia e Sociedade

versão impressa ISSN 0104-0618

Resumo

POSSAS, Mario Luiz  e  DWECK, Esther. Economic growth in a micro-macrodynamic simulation model. Econ. soc. [online]. 2011, vol.20, n.1, pp.01-31. ISSN 0104-0618.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0104-06182011000100001.

This paper discusses macrodynamic properties concerning of economic growth trend and its determinants, including microeconomic factors that can be explored within the simulation model proposed. The model tries to integrate the effective demand-based macrodynamics with structural and sectoral features that may generate emergent properties, focusing on the link between macroeconomic paths and technological progress. The simulation results presented in the paper give an idea of the trend path behavior generated by the model and its determinants. The main result is an irregular long run growth trend essentially determined by the autonomous components of the aggregate demand - investment, consumption, public expenditures and net exports -, as in the tradition of growth models based on dynamic properties of effective demand, and not by some kind of supply shocks as in mainstream models. A special feature of the model is that most of these final demand components are partially or totally endogenized in the model. This allows to test each of these components is separately, pointing out the decisive influence of its share on the total GDP to the final the latter's trend trajectory.

Palavras-chave : Multisectoral growth models; Simulation models; Demand-led economic growth.

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