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Economia e Sociedade

versão impressa ISSN 0104-0618

Resumo

ROCHA, Marcos Aurélio Andrade  e  OREIRO, José Luis. Capital accumulation, foreign savings and macroeconomic performance of emerging countries. Econ. soc. [online]. 2011, vol.20, n.1, pp.33-52. ISSN 0104-0618.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0104-06182011000100002.

This paper aims to present a non-linear dynamic model to evaluate the relationship between external savings and "excessive" external borrowings in emerging countries, resulted from large current account deficits. For this intent, it is present a post-Keynesian model in which (i) an increase in the external borrowings as gross domestic product share generates an less than proportional increase in the investment rate, since part of external financing is used to acquire non-reproducible assets (buildings and equities), (ii) the country-risk premium of a country is endogenous, increasing proportionally to the external borrowing as GDP share. Specifically, on theoretical dimension, the paper intends to isolate the economic mechanisms by which the external savings, through external borrowings as vehicle, has as low profit rate equilibrium and low rate of return to capital, and hence macroeconomic stagnation. To test the effects of external savings and borrowing in the terms of the formal model, it is estimated a dynamic panel which evaluates if external savings has an effective negative impact over income per capita path of emerging countries.

Palavras-chave : Foreign savings; Capital accumulation; Business-cycles; External debt; External competitiveness.

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