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Economia e Sociedade

Print version ISSN 0104-0618On-line version ISSN 1982-3533

Abstract

BUSATO, Maria Isabel  and  POSSAS, Mario Luiz. External constriction and economic growth: an open multisectoral simulation model. Econ. soc. [online]. 2016, vol.25, n.2, pp.279-313. ISSN 0104-0618.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1982-3533.2016v25n2art1.

This paper discusses the dynamics of economic growth in developing economies using the Keynesian and Kaleckian effective demand principle as well as the balance of payments constrained demand-led growth models, conceived by ECLAC (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean) and developed by Thirlwall. To this effect, a computer simulation model was developed to capture the effects on the balance of payments and on economic growth rates under different growth patterns. The main conclusions drawn were: i) growth rates of an economy in which the dynamics are exclusively driven by internal conditions will, from a certain point, be constrained by the rise in external vulnerability; ii) if productive sectors are able to introduce innovative dynamics increasing the competitiveness of their products and therefore the export coefficients, economic growth will be driven by internal demand, postponing, although not precluding, the risk of foreign vulnerability.

Keywords : Principle of effective demand; Capitalist dynamics; Economic growth; Foreign constraint; Simulation models.

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