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Ensaio: Avaliação e Políticas Públicas em Educação

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SOARES, Tufi Machado; FERRAO, Maria Eugénia  and  MARQUES, Cláudio de Albuquerque. Analysis of the Urban 'ProJovem' evasion: an approach through the Multilevel Logistic Regression Model. Ensaio: aval.pol.públ.Educ. [online]. 2011, vol.19, n.73, pp.841-860. ISSN 0104-4036.

Despite the great achievements recorded in Brazilian Education in recent decades, the Brazilian system still has structured characteristics that hamper its socioeconomic development: the high rates of retention and school evasion. As a result, the educational level of the working age population is low. Under the responsibility of the Presidency of the Republic, the Urban ProJovem was designed: its primary goal is to promote the social inclusion of 18-29-year-old Brazilians who, even literate, have not completed Primary School. Although the Program attracted the interest of many young people, the withdrawal and evasion were still very high. This study aims to identify the main groups of higher incidence of evasion, with the aim to implement measures to reduce it. Thus, using a multilevel logistic approach, the following characteristics are taken into consideration: sex, age, race, color, last grade attended, levels of knowledge in Math and Portuguese at the entrance to the Program, socioeconomic level and the metropolitan area. The results suggest that the groups with higher incidence of evasion were defined by gender, sex, age and region.

Keywords : ProJovem; Evaluation; Perfomance indicators; Evasion; Social inclusion; Public policy; Evasion; Inclusion; IRT Model; Logistic Multilevel Model.

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