Analysis of economic and financial viability and risk evaluation of a wind project with Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

The world is experiencing a deep climate change caused by the predatory activity of man, due to the long time economic activities practiced without concerns on the environmental impacts. However, nowadays there is the necessity to expand the current economy without compromising the necessary resources for the survival of the future generations. The intensive use of alternative energy configures a contribution to this new development path. In another perspective, the main technical analysis of economic and financial feasibility is widely known; however, the application of techniques that consider the risk is not so usual. Thus, this current work addresses whether it is possible to identify the economic feasibility of a potential wind power generation plant in different Brazilian locations considering the risk of applying Monte Carlo simulation and Beta distribution techniques. In order to answer this question tests were performed in four different locations in Brazil, utilizing the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) method with the mentioned techniques to consider the risk in investment analysis. The results showed the sensitivity of the wind project to the financing costs, regardless the region studied.

Keywords:
Wind power; Economic and financial viability; Internal Rate of Return