Predictive power of indicators to the perception of food and nutritional insecurity in the Bolsa Família Program

Poder preditivo de indicadores à percepção de insegurança alimentar e nutricional no Programa Bolsa Família

Abstract:

The objective was to analyze the predictive power of indicators of the perception of food and nutritional insecurity comparing beneficiary and non - beneficiary families of the Bolsa Família Program, through a cross - sectional study with 150 families. Demographic, socioeconomic, food insecurity (Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale), nutritional status (Body Mass Index) and household consumption patterns were collected. The correlation between the demographic, socioeconomic, nutritional status and level of food insecurity were tested using the Pearson correlation coefficient; the association with Chi-square and ANOVA tests; and the prevalence ratio and 95% confidence intervals with Poisson Regression model. The predictive power of indicators of food insecurity was evaluated with the ROC curve. Patterns of food consumption, demographic and health characteristics were not significantly correlated with food insecurity. In the analyzes with the ROC curve, among the beneficiary families, the income derived only from the Bolsa Família and the Renda Cidadã Program with the Bolsa Família presented a better predictive power of food insecurity, covering the curve by 70%, followed by the difference between the income from wages and rent and gas (70%). The proportions of the total income of families spent on rent and gas had low predictive power (67%). Income components, mainly rent and gas spending, showed a better performance in the prediction of food insecurity among beneficiaries of Bolsa Família, and could be a complementary quantitative indicator to the Brazilian Scale of Food Insecurity.

Keywords:
Food and nutrition security; Social policy; Family income; ROC curve