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On-line version ISSN 1807-0191
MILLER, Warren E.. Ordem temporal e inferência causal. Opin. Publica [online]. 2001, vol.7, n.2, pp. 139-167. ISSN 1807-0191. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0104-62762001000200001.
Measures of change in pairs of attitudinal variables can provide important insights into the structure of the political belief systems of mass publics. Panel data reveal evidence of the greater centrality of some idea elements rather than others in the context of short-term dynamic constraint. Specification of the theoretically relevant voter attributes makes it possible to test for expected structural differences connecting policy related pre-dispositions and policy preferences; specification also makes it possible to test propositions involving the reciprocal effects of attitudes and emerging vote preferences. Some of the more helpful specifications disclose the extent to which population heterogeneity produces a blurred image of relationships when analysis is based on the total electorate rather than limited to voters or subsets of voters specified by theoretical criteria.
Keywords : belief systems; attitudinal variables; vote preferences; causal relation.