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Opinião Pública

versão impressa ISSN 0104-6276

Resumo

TERRON, Sonia Luiza  e  SOARES, Gláucio Ary Dillon. As bases eleitorais de Lula e do PT: do distanciamento ao divórcio. Opin. Publica [online]. 2010, vol.16, n.2, pp. 310-337. ISSN 0104-6276.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0104-62762010000200002.

The debate about the distancing between Lula and the Workers Party (PT) gained acceptance in the 2006 election, when the popularity of Lula and his government did not extend to the PT, as expected. For the first time the party did not improve performance in the voting for the Chamber of Deputies regarding the previous election. We analyzed the electoral bases of Lula and the PT in the last four elections for president and federal deputies (1994-2006), and we prove the distancing between them. We studied the spatial distribution of votes at the municipal level with maps, statistics and spatial regression. We identified the detachment of the candidate's and party's electoral territories every election, and the regressions measured the growing spatial-temporal independence of the votings: the coefficient fell from 0.85 in 1994 to 0.15 in 2006. There was a process of geossocial distancing in the period 1994 to 2002, and a "divorce" between the electoral bases in 2006 when the territories seemed to be nearly unrelated to each other.

Palavras-chave : electoral territory; voting; political behavior; spatial analysis; electoral geography.

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