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Opinião Pública

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Abstract

BEZERRA, Heloisa Dias  and  MUNDIM, Pedro Santos. Qual foi o papel das variáveis midiáticas na eleição presidencial de 2010?. Opin. Publica [online]. 2011, vol.17, n.2, pp. 452-476. ISSN 0104-6276.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0104-62762011000200007.

In this article we present the results of a preliminary study about the effects of media variables on the voting decision process at the 2010 presidential election. The results from logistic multinomial models estimated with ESEB 2010's data suggest that two of the five variable used here - debates and political awareness - influenced the voters' decision in favor of Serra and against Dilma respectively in the first and second rounds. At the same time two other variables presented counterintuitive results: a greater exposition to traditional press and to the program Brasil Urgente increased the probability on part of the electorate to defect or to cast blank and spoiled votes instead of voting on Dilma. Even though this is an initial analysis, the results are closer to the visions that defend a more active role for the media during the elections than with those visions that call for the media's irrelevance.

Keywords : Mass Media; Media Effects; Voting; Presidential Elections of 2010; CSES-ESEB 2010.

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