Framing effects on foreign policy: experimental evidence from emerging countries and the Argentine-Brazilian rivalry

Mouron, Fernando; Urdinez, Francisco; Onuki, Janina

doi:10.1590/1807-01912016221195

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Article • Opin. Pública 22 (1) • Apr 2016 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1807-01912016221195 copy

Framing effects on foreign policy: experimental evidence from emerging countries and the Argentine-Brazilian rivalry¹ 1 This article was previously presented at the ISA-Flacso Joint General Conference (2014), the IX Summit of the Brazilian Political Science Association (2014), and the 2014 Gesis Summer School in Survey Methodology. The authors would like to thank Lorena Barberia, Aldana Romano, and Fiorella Wernicke for their comments, suggestions, and research assistance.

Efeitos de enquadramento em política externa: evidência empírica de países emergentes e a rivalidade argentino-brasileira

Efectos de encuadramiento en política externa: Evidencia de países emergentes y la rivalidadargentino-brasilera

Les effets de cadrage sur la politique étrangère: La preuve expérimentale des pays émergents et la rivalité argentino-brésilienne

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

Civil society plays an increasingly important role in the formulation of foreign policy in emerging countries. This article investigates whether public opinion is sensitive to framing effects regarding foreign policy. Data from a survey experiment with a sample of 1,530 students at the Universidad de Buenos Aires and the Universidad Nacional de Avellaneda, we find that participants are sensitive to framing effects on foreign affairs. The interviewees changed their preferences when stimulated by information regarding Brazilian economic growth and military expenditure in comparison with Argentina. In turn, this effect was more pronounced among a) people who tend to stay less informed regarding foreign affairs and b) individuals who are more nationalistic.

framing effects; survey experiment; foreign policy; Argentina; Brazil

	Observations	Visited Brazil (%)	Family members	Monthly family income (AR$)	Average age	Born in Buenos Aires (%)
UBA	893	55	4,15	18000	23,8	82
UNDAV	623	28	4,23	12500	25,5	91

Strategy	Frequency	Percentage
Align	1141	77,7
Counterbalance	329	22,3

Country	Percentage
USA	92.3
China	73.4
Russia	33.4
Japan	32.7
Brazil	24.7
UK	21.6
Other	6.4
Argentina	6.4
France	4.6
India	4.4

Country	Percentage
China	68.3
USA	60.9
Brazil	51.3
Japan	31.2
Russia	26.8
India	19.7
Argentina	16.2
UK	11.4
Other	11.0
France	3.2

	Frequency	Percentage
No	523	35
Yes	973	65

		Argentina should counterbalance Brazil
Treatment	Control	Absolute	Relative
Average	0.18	0.22	0.26**
Observations	476	524	470

	Degree of nationalism		Political ideology		Degree of information		Supports kirchners
	Nationalist	Non-nationalist	Left	Right	Very informed	Little informed	No	Yes
Absolute treatment	0.252	0.121	0.176	0.206	0.203	0.172	0.14	0.271
	(1.83)	(0.86)	(1.63)	(0.88)	(1.57)	(1.13)	(1.11)	(1.74)
Relative treatment	0.272*	0.275	0.257*	0.26	0.134	0.467**	0.249	0.277
	(1.99)	(1.88)	(2.32)	(1.12)	(1.04)	(2.98)	(1.92)	(1.78)
Controls	Si	Si	Si	Si	Si	Si	Si	Si
Observations	650	632	1039	243	761	521	753	529

Centro de Estudos de Opinião Pública da Universidade Estadual de Campinas Cidade Universitária 'Zeferino Vaz", CESOP, Rua Cora Coralina, 100. Prédio dos Centros e Núcleos (IFCH-Unicamp), CEP: 13083-896 Campinas - São Paulo - Brasil, Tel.: (55 19) 3521-7093 - Campinas - SP - Brazil
E-mail: rop@unicamp.br

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[TFN1] Source: Elaborated by the authors.