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Opinião Pública

Print version ISSN 0104-6276On-line version ISSN 1807-0191


SOUZA, Cíntia Pinheiro Ribeiro de. Competition, campaign spending and electoral fragmentation effects on voter turnout and valid votes in Brazilian local elections in 2012. Opin. Publica [online]. 2019, vol.25, n.2, pp.312-342.  Epub Sep 16, 2019. ISSN 1807-0191.

This article investigates factors associated with the levels of voter turnout, in particular, contextual political variables. The argument is that with the weakening of enduring constraints, such as sociodemographic and sociopsychological, we must consider the short-term effect of the conjuncture on electoral participation. The study of this effect is still incipient in Brazil and Latin America. The initial expectation was that competition, campaign spending, and fragmentation were positively associated with aggregate voter turnout. This hypothesis was tested using multivariate linear models in the mayoral elections of 2012. The results confirm this hypothesis in relation to competition and campaign expenditures, with even more force on valid votes compared to attendance itself. However, the results point to a negative effect of fragmentation.

Keywords : voter turnout; electoral competition; campaign spending; electoral fragmentation; Brazil.

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