SciELO - Scientific Electronic Library Online

 
vol.13 issue1Novo indicador coincidente para a atividade industrial brasileiraDiferenças de eficiência entre ensino público e privado no Brasil author indexsubject indexarticles search
Home Pagealphabetic serial listing  

Economia Aplicada

Print version ISSN 1413-8050

Abstract

FERREIRA, Roberto Tatiwa. Ciclos econômicos na taxa de crescimento do ICMS. Econ. Apl. [online]. 2009, vol.13, n.1, pp. 29-44. ISSN 1413-8050.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S1413-80502009000100002.

The main objective of this work is to investigate if there are and what are the principal features in the business cycle of ad valorem tax's growth rate. To do that, Markov-switching and threshold models were used to estimate and analyze the business cycle in the monthly growth rate of Ceará's ad-valorem tax and to forecast. The results show that there are three regimes in the business cycle on the variable under analysis, and the growth rate of tourism and industrial activity may be used as threshold variables, which gives information about Ceará's ad-valorem tax business cycle and its future values.

Keywords : ad valorem tax; business cycle; forecasting; threshold; Markov-switching.

        · abstract in Portuguese     · text in Portuguese     · pdf in Portuguese