Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agrícola e Ambiental
versión impresa ISSN 1415-4366
OLIVEIRA, Robson A. et al. Yield estimate of sugarcane in main producing regions of Minas Gerais using the AEZ method. Rev. bras. eng. agríc. ambient. [online]. 2012, vol.16, n.5, pp. 549-557. ISSN 1415-4366. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S1415-43662012000500011.
ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to parameterize, calibrate and test the Agroecological Zone (AEZ) method for estimating the yield of sugarcane in the major producing areas of sugarcane in the State of Minas Gerais. Meteorological data from the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia and the Agência Nacional de Águas, as well as productivity data from Programa de Melhoramento Genético da Cana-de-Açúcar were used. The AEZ method showed good agreement, R2 = 0.89, RMSE = 8.4 t ha-1; MAE = 6.7 t ha-1, MBE = 5.9 t ha-1 and Willmott's coefficient (d) = 0.95. For validation, a series of crop productivity data from the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística from 1989/90 to 2007/08 was used for the Triângulo Mineiro region. A systematic error with a tendency to overestimate the productivity of about 37 t ha-1 was found. After correcting the tendency of overestimating, the AEZ method showed satisfactory agreement (R2 = 0.55, RMSE = 4.9 t ha-1; MAE = 4.0 t ha-1, MBE = 0.0 t ha-1 and d = 0.80). Therefore, the model has revealed to be an important tool for estimating the yield of sugarcane in a large scale in the state, which could be useful to plan the expansion of optimal activity in the region.
Palabras clave : water balance; climate; agrometeorological model; agroecological zone.