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Revista Brasileira de Epidemiologia

versão impressa ISSN 1415-790Xversão On-line ISSN 1980-5497

Resumo

MALTA, Deborah Carvalho et al. Probability of premature death for chronic non-communicable diseases, Brazil and Regions, projections to 2025. Rev. bras. epidemiol. [online]. 2019, vol.22, e190030.  Epub 01-Abr-2019. ISSN 1415-790X.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1980-549720190030.

Objective:

Objective: To analyze the mortality trends for Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases (NCDs) in the period 2000-2013 and its probability of death until 2025.

Method:

time series analysis of mortality from cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes and chronic respiratory disease, with correction for ill-defined causes and underreporting of deaths and calculation of probability of death.

Results:

There was an average decline of 2.5% per year in all four major NCDs in Brazil. There was a decline in all regions and federal units. The reduced likelihood of death by 30% in 2000 to 26.1% in 2013 and expected decline to 20.5% in 2025.

Conclusion:

From the trend of reduction is expected to reach Brazil reducing overall goal 25% by 2025.

Palavras-chave : Chronic disease. Neoplasm. Diabetes mellitus. Respiratory tract diseases. Mortality; premature. Time series studies.

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