Revista de Economia Contemporânea
versão impressa ISSN 1415-9848
MENEZES, Wilson F. e DEDECCA, Cláudio S.. Estimation of unemployment duration in the metropolitan area of Salvador and São Paulo. Rev. econ. contemp. [online]. 2006, vol.10, n.1, pp. 35-60. ISSN 1415-9848. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S1415-98482006000100002.
This article analyzed the unemployment duration of the metropolitan areas of Salvador (RMS) and São Paulo (RMSP), in the period between 2000 and 2002. For that, it has been used a sample of 25,477 people in RMS and 28,285 people in RMSP, whose information were collected by the Employment and Unemployment Research (PED). The methodologial procedure intends to estimate the unemployment duration by the cross-section data and by cohort groups of unemployed people in the determined time. The goal is to verify the probability of changing from one cohort to another one, as sugested by Sider (1985), Corak and Heisz (1995b) and Baker, Corak and Heisz (1996). The complete duration has been calculated by three ways: backward condition, steady state condition and forward condition. The incidence and the stock of unemployed people have been estimated by gender, race, chief of family, young, ranges of ages and ranges of years of study. It has also been analyzed how the unemployment rate effects on the unemployment duration. The results showed an average duration in steady state of 9.4 months in RMS and 8.8 months in RMSP, in contrast with the incomplete duration of 22.3 months in RMS and 19.5 months in RMSP.
Palavras-chave : unemployment; unemployment duration; regional work markets.