The potential of Homalodisca coagulata to invade South America is a question of economic importance, given its potential impact as a disease vector for several crops. We developed ecological niche models for the species on its native geographic distribution in the southeastern United States; we tested the predictivity of the models both on the native distributional area and via projections to California, where the species has long been present as an invasive species. In both cases, tests indicated high statistical significance of predictions. Projection of models to South America indicated little possibility of invasion of southeastern Brazil, where citrus diseases were of concern. However, all models agree in predict-ing great risk of establishment in the wine-growing regions of northern Argentina and extreme southern Brazil; great precaution is thus to be recommended when any movements of bio-materials are made from infected areas to this region.
ecological niche modeling; invasive species; Xylella fastidiosa; vector