Mortality prediction of laying hens due to heat waves

Riquena, Rodrigo da Silva; Pereira, Danilo Florentino; Vale, Marcos Martinez do; Salgado, Douglas D'Alessandro

doi:10.5935/1806-6690.20190003

Acessibilidade / Reportar erro

Brasil

Revista Ciência Agronômica

Español English

Brasil

Español English

sumário « anterior atual seguinte »

Sumário

Agricultural Engineering • Rev. Ciênc. Agron. 50 (1) • Jan-Mar 2019 • https://doi.org/10.5935/1806-6690.20190003 copy

Mortality prediction of laying hens due to heat waves¹ 1 Parte da Dissertação de Mestrado do primeiro autor apresentada na Universidade Estadual Paulista

Previsão de mortalidade de galinhas poedeiras em função de ondas de calor

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

Mortality in the production of laying hens is a concern for producers and constitutes a considerable economic loss. Some climatic events, such as heat waves, are directly related to the mortality increasing. The aim of this study was to relate the occurrence of heat waves with laying hens mortality, considering the effect of two different kinds of shed used in egg production. Daily mortality data were obtained from two aviaries located in the city of Bastos-SP for the period of October 2014 to January 2016. The data about the climate were gotten from two meteorological stations located in the cities of Tupã-SP and Rancharia-SP, Brazil, from 2010 to 2015. The heat waves were classified in the climatic database using different definitions recommended in the literature (FRICH et al., 2002FRICH, P. et al. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Research, v. 19, n. 3, p. 193-212, 2002.; INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA, 2016INTERAVES. Produção e Comercialização de Poedeiras Comerciais. Programação de produção Hisex White. Cascavel, PR, 2016.; ROSSATO; SARTORI; MISSIO, 2003ROSSATO, P. S.; SARTORI, M. G. B.; MISSIO, L. R.. As ondas de calor na região central do RS entre os meses de maio a outubro. Simpósio Brasileiro de Geografia Física Aplicada, v. 10, 2003. TEBALDI et al., 2006TEBALDI, C. et al. Going to the extremes. Climatic Change, v. 79, n. 3, p. 185-211, 2006.). Mortality and climate data were related in a single database and were classified into normal and high mortality by data mining using the J48 algorithm. It was possible to associate the occurrences of heat wave and the increase of mortality of laying hens. The classification tree generated identified accurately 71% of occurrences of high mortality and 95% of all mortality data. The classification tree allowed to relate the increase in laying mortality in function of heat waves and allows a prediction of when there will be a bigger chance of high mortality.

Key words:
Data mining; Poultry farming; Climate changes; Animal husbandry

Characteristic	Aviary B1^* * The denomination of the aviary is the same one used by the farm	Aviary G2^* * The denomination of the aviary is the same one used by the farm
Width	4 m	3 m
Length	130 m	130 m
High Ceiling	3.5 m	2 m
Tile type	Ceramic clay of French type, painted with white thermal ink.	Clay ceramic of French type without painting.
Cage Type	Vertical system, with three floors of cages on both sides. Polyethylene sides and wire front.	Pyramidal system two-story pyramidal batteries and cages on both sides with a central hallway.
Direction	East-West	East-West
Ridge	Does not have	Does not have
Headliner	Does not have	Does not have
Curtain	Does not have	Does not have
Plastic covering	Both sides with 70% north-south faces.	Does not have
Raised Floor	Does not have	Does not have
Walls	Masonry on the East-West sides.	Does not have
Cage Dimensions	60 cm of wide, 63 cm of deep and 50 cm of height.	60 cm of wide, 53 cm of deep and 45 cm of height.
Birds per Cage	11 Birds	10 Birds
Cage Density	343.64cm²/bird/cage.	318 cm²/bird/cage.
Total birds housed	12,100	5,309

Reference	Description	Criterion
HWDI - (Heat Wave Duration Index)	5 consecutive days and maximum temperature> 5 ºC than the average daily maximum value of the period.	C1
THI - (Temperature and Humidity Index)	THI> to 81 for at least 3 consecutive days.	C2
INMET - National classification	Maximum temperature ≥ 32 ºC and 5 ºC above the average in parts of that area for at least 2 days.	C3
Rossato, Sartori and Missio (2003)ROSSATO, P. S.; SARTORI, M. G. B.; MISSIO, L. R.. As ondas de calor na região central do RS entre os meses de maio a outubro. Simpósio Brasileiro de Geografia Física Aplicada, v. 10, 2003.	Minimum temperature > 22º and maximum ≥ 32º for at least 3 consecutive days.	C4

Attribute	Type	Attribute	Type
Mortality Classifier	0	Maximum wind speed	3
Month of the experiment	1	Range of RH	3
Age, days	1	Temperature Range	3
Age, weeks	1	Average THI (SANTOS et al., 2014SANTOS, G. et al. Estudo bioclimático das regiões litorânea, agreste e semiárida do estado de Sergipe para a avicultura de corte e postura. Ciência Rural, v. 44, n. 1, p. 123-128, 2014.)	3
Average temperature	2	Maximum THI (SANTOS et al., 2014SANTOS, G. et al. Estudo bioclimático das regiões litorânea, agreste e semiárida do estado de Sergipe para a avicultura de corte e postura. Ciência Rural, v. 44, n. 1, p. 123-128, 2014.)	3
Maximum absolut temperature	2	Minimum THI (SANTOS et al., 2014SANTOS, G. et al. Estudo bioclimático das regiões litorânea, agreste e semiárida do estado de Sergipe para a avicultura de corte e postura. Ciência Rural, v. 44, n. 1, p. 123-128, 2014.)	3
Maximum relative humidity	2	Aviary type	4
Minimum relative humidity	2
Minimum wind speed	2

Criterion	Area under the ROC curve	Positive Predictive (%)	Sensitivity	1 - Specificity
C1	0.737	79.850	0.750	0.417
C2	0.641	25.700	0.538	0.428
C3	0.757	87.620	0.758	0.404
C4	0.745	81.790	0.769	0.423

Heat wave	Number of days of duration	Observed Mortality (%)
Heat wave	Number of days of duration	B1	G2
1	6	0.2767	1.2106
2	7	0.4039	3.1232
3	13	1.4531	1.9155
4	7	0.6896	0.5957
5	3	0.3132	0.7328
6	3	0.0025	0.0033
Average	6.5	0.0804	0.1943
Standard deviation	3.7	0.5064	1.1137

Model	Total Precision	NM Precision	HM Precision	Kappa
ModMASO	95.5%	98.0%	71.4%	0.7237

Universidade Federal do Ceará Av. Mister Hull, 2977 - Bloco 487, Campus do Pici, 60356-000 - Fortaleza - CE - Brasil, Tel.: (55 85) 3366-9702 / 3366-9732, Fax: (55 85) 3366-9417 - Fortaleza - CE - Brazil
E-mail: ccarev@ufc.br

Acompanhe os números deste periódico no seu leitor de RSS

[1] *Author for correspondence

Brasil

Brasil

Mortality prediction of laying hens due to heat waves1 1 Parte da Dissertação de Mestrado do primeiro autor apresentada na Universidade Estadual Paulista

Previsão de mortalidade de galinhas poedeiras em função de ondas de calor

ABSTRACT

Mortality prediction of laying hens due to heat waves¹ 1 Parte da Dissertação de Mestrado do primeiro autor apresentada na Universidade Estadual Paulista