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vol.27 número4MODELAGEM NÃO LINEAR DA RELAÇÃO HIPSOMÉTRICA E DO CRESCIMENTO DAS ÁRVORES DOMINANTES E CODOMINANTES DE Eucalyptus sp.CHAPAS AGLOMERADAS CONFECCIONADAS COM UREIA-FORMALDEÍDO SOB ADIÇÃO DE TANINO EM PÓ índice de autoresíndice de assuntospesquisa de artigos
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Ciência Florestal

versão impressa ISSN 0103-9954versão On-line ISSN 1980-5098

Resumo

GONCALVES, Juliana Carneiro; OLIVEIRA, Antônio Donizette de; CARVALHO, Samuel de Pádua Chaves e  e  GOMIDE, Lucas Rezende. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ROTATION FOREST OF EUCALYPTUS STANDS USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION. Ciênc. Florest. [online]. 2017, vol.27, n.4, pp.1339-1347. ISSN 0103-9954.  http://dx.doi.org/10.5902/1980509830215.

The objective of this study was to determine the economic cycle rotation of eucalyptus plantations in three productivity sites over hazardous conditions. The data used on this study, released by the company Fibria Celulose. Besides the timber production data, it was also given the company cash flow. It was from an even- aged stand and a monoclonal stand both of Eucalyptus urograndis. For the risk analysis, the study used Monte Carlo method, having as a result of the simulation the Net Present Value for Infinite Series, using as an input variable and/or source of uncertainty, the probability distributions of the land and wood prices, the costs of harvesting and transportation activities, the interest rate and also the timber production. The simulation consisted in carrying out 10,000 interactions, where it was obtained the necessary information for the development of the next analysis. As a conclusion the optimal rotation for cutting was 6, 8 and 11 years on the good sites (I), regular sites(II) and poor sites(III) respectively, being consistent with the biological laws of growth. Another conclusion is that even under the same management conditions, more productive sites generate greater economic returns and therefore lower risk in adverse economic scenarios.

Palavras-chave : forest economics; Monte Carlo simulation; Eucalyptus..

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