STOCHASTIC MODEL OF THE BRAZILIAN GPS NETWORK COORDINATES TIME SERIES

Modelo Estocástico das Series de Coordenadas GPS da Rede Brasileira de Monitoramento Continuo

Abstract

It is well known that daily estimates of GPS coordinates are highly temporally correlated and that the knowledge and understanding of this correlation allows to establish more realistic uncertainties of the parameters estimated from the data. Despite this, there are currently no studies related to the analysis and calculation of the noise sources in geodetic time series in Brazil. In this context, this paper focuses on the investigation of the stochastic properties of a total of 486 coordinates time series from 159 GPS stations belonging to the Brazilian Network for Continuous Monitoring of GNSS (RBMC) using the maximum likelihood estimation approach. To reliably describe the GPS time series, we evaluate 4 possible stochastic models as models of each time series: 3 models with integer spectral indices (white noise, flicker plus white noise and random-walk plus white noise model) and 1 with fractional spectral index (fractional power-law plus white noise). By comparing the calculated noise content values for each model, it is possible to demonstrate a stepwise increase of the noise content, being the combination of a fractional power-law process and white noise process, the model with smaller values and the combination of random walk process with white noise process, the model with greater values. The analysis of the spatial distribution of the noise values of the processes allow demonstrate that the GPS sites with the highest accumulated noise values, coincide with sites located in coastal zones and river basins and that their stochastic properties can be aliased by the occurrence of different physical signals typical of this type of zones, as the case of the hydrological loading effect.

Keywords
Time series analysis; Stochastic model; Power-Law noise model