1 delay in deployment of meteorological instruments... awareness of the importance |
Management |
+13 +53 +40 |
2 limited financial resources for equipment and infrastructure for AM... available resources |
+1 |
3 low priority by senior management in the AM activities... awareness of the importance |
+37 +2 +4 -7 |
4 specific and ongoing training deficient in AM... awareness of the importance |
+52 -7 |
5 deficient development of long-term infrastructure plan... awareness by senior management |
+13 +1 +2 |
6 maturation of the importance of AM... low weather risk perception |
-63 -59 |
7 risk perception increased after the VLS accident... low perception of Brazilian decision-makers |
+9 +6 -1 |
8 low valuation of the space program... sufficient financial resources |
+35 +27 +2 +3 +5 |
9 reliability of equipment/data of AM are important... low weather risk perception |
-1 |
10 deficient observation instruments for AM... instruments installed and fully operational |
Infrastructure |
+13 |
11 NWP inadequate for the mission launch... regional models and short-term WF |
+13 |
12 deficient software of AM (Weather Systems Integration)... software available and operational |
+47 +13 |
13 insufficient general infrastructure for AM... center suitable for all launching operations |
+44 |
14 poor communication data... dedicated link to weather data |
+13 +11 |
15 deficient reception of satellite image... own system available |
+10 |
16 poor lightning and electrical field detection system... financial resources available |
+10 |
17 lack of an observation backup system... multiple observation systems |
+10 |
18 WF >24h is not used... high skill level |
Operational |
+28 +26 |
19 limited staff with experience in AM... periodic and continuous launch |
+26 |
20 poor training of new staff... replacement staff and continuous training |
+24 |
21 Brazilian rockets are susceptible to weather conditions... rockets with a high protection |
+30 +31 +23 +29 |
22 poor operational team in launching centers... periodic and continuous launch |
+24 +25 +19 |
23 AM is subject to flight safety team... implementation of WF at different stages of the mission |
-31 |
24 lack of a systemic view of the launch missions... interactions identified and teams prepared |
+28 +23 |
25 low weather risk perception... continuous launches and developed operational culture |
+24 +18 +28 |
26 WF in launch missions have a high uncertainty... highly qualified personnel and operational equipment |
+71 +60 |
27 lack of interaction between BSP organizations... periodical and continuous launches |
+24 |
28 high rate of “false” launch... WF changed the chronology |
+32 +26 |
29 AM information is relevant at different stages of the mission... low interaction with other sectors |
-41 +31 |
30 accuracy of AM is an important safety factor... activities with low weather risk |
+67 -26 |
31 WF is important throughout the mission chronology... rocket more resistant to environmental conditions |
+30 |
32 lack of confidence in WF lead time > 2h... high accuracy rate (> 85%) |
+18 +46 +26 |
33 hard work during mission launch... no need to move outside staff |
Staff |
+39 |
34 few forecasters with experience in AM... ongoing training and interaction with more experienced staff |
+36 |
35 high staff turnover in the BSP organizations... adequate career progression and challenging conditions |
+27 +37 |
36 few forecasters and technical teams... adequate operating staff |
+38 +39 +33 |
37 difficulty in keeping meteorologists and technical staff in the launch center... good infrastructure for housing |
+34 +36 |
38 need to move technical staff for missions launch... local staff available |
+39 |
39 difficulty in conducting research in AM... local and permanent staff available |
+42 |
40 decision making is complex at points of “no return”... risks identified and established procedures |
Process |
+46 +60 |
41 little use of AM information before launch... identified needs |
+46 |
42 low interactions between R&D and operation... identified needs |
+57 +58 +43 +62 |
43 nonexistent research in space weather and launching rockets... demands and risks identified |
+62 |
44 risk of loss of the payload in the ocean due to environmental conditions... impacts identified and oceanographic observation in real time |
+60 |
45 little understanding of probabilistic WF... decision-makers’ preferences identified |
+56 |
46 decision using the WF is only for rocket launch (< 2h)... impacts identified at all stages of the mission |
+67 +48 +60 |
47 lack of a weather decision support system... system designed in accordance with Brazilian demands |
+61 +53 +66 +55 +48 |
48 WF is not a tool for making early decisions (avoiding rework)... decision-makers’ preferences identified |
+40 +54 |
49 probabilistic WF is not used by decision-makers... identified preferences |
+48 +40 +54 +46 |
50 wind forecast is not used in calculating the trajectory of rockets... NWP adequate and integrated |
+44 +51 |
51 WF is not classified by type of mission/rockets... demands and impacts identified |
+41 +54 +61 |
52 poor interaction between AM and other sectors... well-established procedures and hierarchy |
+45 +57 +42 |
53 WF format is not suitable... procedures established for each type of mission/rocket |
+44 +64 +50 +51 |
54 decision making using AM is personal... established procedures for objective decision |
+71 +44 +40 +60 |
55 external pressure to launch the rockets... established procedures |
+60 |
56 few operating procedures related to AM... identified demands |
+49 +64 +53 +66 +47 +50 +63 +61 |
57 poor identification of limiting environmental criteria... impacts identified and procedures available |
+56 |
58 little research on the gas dispersion launches (rocket exhaust clouds)... high interaction between R&D and operation |
+62 |
59 lack of management knowledge in AM... updated procedures and continuous training |
+66 +65 +56 |
60 high risk in decision making using WF... mitigation actions developed |
+71 |
61 AM operation is not standardized in all missions... established procedures |
+55 |
62 few studies on weather risk analysis... impacts and risks identified |
+56 +44 |
63 quality of WF is not evaluated... procedures available |
+59 |
64 lack of established procedures with scenario planning... impacts for each scenario identified and procedures established |
+71 +48 +60 +41 +55 +40 +46 |
65 Brazilian standards based on international standards... appropriate standards for Brazilian characteristics |
+47 |
66 format of WF dependent upon meteorologist... established procedures |
+53 |
67 probabilistic WF is more suitable for the decision-maker... preferences unidentified |
-60 -40 |
68 environmental impact is a concern in commercial launch missions... disinterest in the international market |
Strategic |
+69 |
69 rocket and launch center cannot present problems/delays for commercial missions... interest only in R&D missions |
+73 -70 |
70 AM is important only at launch... AM should be a provider of information at various stages of the mission |
+71 |
71 WF is not an effective tool for changing the mission chronology ... identified weather risk and procedures established throughout the launch mission |
Head (strategic objective) |
72 maturation of the importance of ‘customer’... lack of experience with external payload organizations BSP |
+74 +69 +68 |
73 international experience valued AM... low weather risks perception from Brazilian decision-makers |
+70 |
74 quality certification is important for commercial missions... disinterest in the international market |
+73 |