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Floresta e Ambiente

Print version ISSN 1415-0980On-line version ISSN 2179-8087

Abstract

OLIVEIRA, Aylson Costa et al. Economic Risk Analysis of Two Systems of Charcoal Production. Floresta Ambient. [online]. 2017, vol.24, e20160265.  Epub Apr 27, 2017. ISSN 1415-0980.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/2179-8087.026516.

This study aimed to analyze the economic viability of charcoal production in kilns-furnace system and “rabo-quente” kilns, as well as the investment risk simulation. The economic analysis was performed by determining the following indicators: Net Present Value (NPV), Equivalent Annual Value (EAV) and Benefit - Cost Reason (B/C). The risk analysis was performed by the Monte Carlo method. Economic indicators were viable. Kilns-furnace system evidenced to be more viable economically. Risk analysis indicated that there is probability to economical unviability of evaluated systems, 0.9% and 27.3% for kilns-furnace system and “rabo-quente” kilns, respectively. Inclusion of risk analysis in economic analysis of charcoal production projects results in greater security to infer on economic indicators.

Keywords : kilns; net present value; Monte Carlo simulation.

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