Forest Fire Hazard in the Serra do Brigadeiro State Park (MG)

Torres, Fillipe Tamiozzo Pereira; Lima, Gumercindo Souza

doi:10.1590/2179-8087.030417

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Original Article, Conservation of Nature • Floresta Ambient. 26 (2) • 2019 • https://doi.org/10.1590/2179-8087.030417 copy

Forest Fire Hazard in the Serra do Brigadeiro State Park (MG)

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

The objective of this study was to analyze the effectiveness of forest fire hazard indices for the Serra do Brigadeiro State Park region (MG). Although no weather station is present in this territory, the use of data obtained in the municipality of Viçosa (38 km distance) was effective to calculate the hazard. According to the results, the use of high and very high hazard classes to predict occurrences proved to be more efficient. The Telicyn, Nesterov, FMA and FMA+ indices showed better results when daily mean data was used while FWI responded better with daily maximum temperature and relative humidity at 3:00 p.m. The P-EVAP and FWI indices were the most efficient to predict fires in the study region.

Keywords:
fire; PESB; prediction

Index	Rain (mm)	Change in calculation
Telicyn	>2.5	Abandon the sum and start calculating the next day, or when the rains cease. On the day(s) of rain the index is equal to zero.
EVAP/P	< 1 1 to 15 >15	Does not enter in the calculation. Divide the EVAP/P before the rain of the day. When interrupting the calculation, start over the next day or when the rains cease. On the day of rain EVAP/P = 0.
Nesterov and P-EVAP	≤2.0 2.1 to 5.0 5.1 to 8.0 8.1 to 10.0 >10.0	None. Shoot down 25% on the value of G calculated on the eve and Add (d.t) of the day. Shoot down 50% in value of G calculated on the eve and add (d.t) of the day. Leave the previous sum and start new calculation, i.e. G = (d.t) of the day. Stop the calculation (G = 0), resuming the sum the next day or when the rains cease.
FMA and FMA⁺	≤2.4 2.5 to 4.9 5.0 to 9.9 10.0 to 12.9 >12.9	None. Shoot down 30% on FMA calculated on the eve and sum (100/H) of the day. Shoot down 60% on FMA calculated on the eve and add (100/H) of the day. Shoot down 80% on FMA calculated on the eve and add (100/H) of the day. Stop the calculation (FMA = 0), resuming the sum the next day or when the rains cease.

Predicted	Observed		Total predicted
Predicted	Fires	No fires	Total predicted
Fires	a	b	N2 = a + b
No fires	c	d	N4 = c + d
Total observed	N1 = a + c	N3 = b + d	N = a + b + c + d
Calculations of the contingency table
Predicted	Observed		Total predicted
Predicted	Fires	No fires	Total predicted
Fires	a / (a + c)	b / (b + d)
No fires	c / (a + c)	d / (b + d)
The variables for the realization of the calculations are: G – Number of hits in the forecast. G = a + d; p – Likely to have at least one event per day. p = N1 / N; q – Likely to exceed the limit value of the index. q = N2 / N; H – Expected number of hits. H = N * (1 – p) * (1 – q) + N * p * q; SS – Skill Score. SS = (G – H) / (N – H); PS – Percentage of success. PS = G / N.

Index	Null	Low	Average	High	Very high
Telicyn	< 2	2.1 to 3.5	3.6 to 5	5 to 15	> 15
EVAP/P	< 5	5 to 20	20.1 to 50	50.1 to 100	> 100
P-EVAP	> - 5	-5 to -30	-30.1 to -55	-55.1 to -125	<-125
Nesterov	≤ 300	301 to 500	501 to 1000	1001 to 4000	> 4000
FWI	0 to 1.9	2 to 4.9	5 to 8.9	9 to 16.9	> 17
FMA⁺	≤ 3	3.1 to 8	8.1 to 14	14.1 to 24	> 24
FMA	≤ 1	1.1 to 3	3.1 to 8	8.1 to 20	> 20

Month	Wind	Evaporation (mm)	Rain (mm)	T (°C)	UR (%)	(%) fires^* * We used only data from the ROIs.	(%) Burned area*
Jan	1.21	72.26	232.05	22.69	79.28	5.88	0.90
Feb	1.41	79.04	90.18	22.99	76.67	5.88	2.25
Mar	0.81	66.83	190.26	22.33	82.03	0.00	0.00
Apr	0.85	57.76	65.84	20.74	82.70	0.00	0.00
May	0.88	58.15	32.60	17.88	82.44	0.00	0.00
Jun	0.88	53.35	16.04	16.71	83.00	0.00	0.00
Jul	0.92	67.46	6.84	16.56	80.04	0.00	0.00
Aug	1.02	90.74	5.74	17.63	73.06	41.18	11.68
Sep	1.48	107.33	47.41	19.51	68.13	32.35	71.45
Oct	1.40	99.91	92.36	21.10	72.68	8.82	12.97
Nov	1.37	74.06	209.04	21.47	78.47	5.88	0.75
Dec	1.23	71.98	322.95	22.62	80.38	0.00	0.00
r nº	0.35	0.75	-0.33	-0.22	-0.82	-	-
r area	0.51	0.75	-0.24	-0.10	-0.81	-	-

INDEX	Null		Low		Average		High		Very high
INDEX	Days	Fires	Days	Fires	Days	Fires	Days	Fires	Days	Fires
EVAP/P	27.79%	0.63%	21.63%	3.14%	19.13%	17.61%	17.21%	38.36%	14.24%	40.25%
Telicyn^* * Using daily average data of wind speed, temperature and relative humidity.	45.35%	3.14%	10.13%	5.66%	5.92%	6.92%	22.25%	61.01%	16.36%	23.27%
P-EVAP	29.43%	1.26%	26.25%	5.66%	11.81%	8.18%	19.47%	35.85%	13.04%	49.06%
FWI^ Using the maximum daily temperature, relative humidity at 3:00 p.m. and daily average wind speed.	26.18%	0.63%	12.39%	0.63%	14.85%	1.26%	25.56%	10.06%	21.01%	87.42%
FMA+*	20.94%	0.63%	16.87%	1.89%	11.29%	4.40%	10.44%	3.77%	40.45%	89.31%
FMA*	14.54%	0.63%	15.26%	1.26%	18.04%	4.40%	18.62%	16.98%	33.54%	76.73%
Nesterov*	32.92%	1.26%	8.49%	1.26%	14.20%	5.03%	35.35%	47.80%	9.03%	44.65%

Rank	Index	SS	PS
1º	P-EVAP T2^* * Using daily average data of wind speed, temperature and relative humidity;	0.554087	77.70%
2º	FWI T2^ Using the maximum daily temperature, relative humidity at 3:00 p.m. and daily average wind speed.	0.538361	76.92%
3º	P-EVAP T1*	0.515689	75.78%
4º	Nesterov T2*	0.508314	75.42%
5º	EVAP/P T2*	0.498795	74.94%
6º	Telicyn T1*	0.493564	74.68%
7º	Telicyn T2*	0.483013	74.15%
8º	EVAP/P T1*	0.482713	74.14%
9º	FMA+ T2*	0.446199	72.31%
10º	FMA T2*	0.439459	71.97%
11º	Nesterov T1*	0.411325	70.57%
12º	FWI T1**	0.394588	69.73%
13º	FMA+ T1*	0.373323	68.67%
14º	FMA T1*	0.295283	64.76%

Instituto de Florestas da Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro Rodovia BR 465 Km 7, CEP 23897-000, Tel.: (21) 2682 0558 | (21) 3787-4033 - Seropédica - RJ - Brazil
E-mail: floram@ufrrj.br

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[1] Fillipe Tamiozzo Pereira TorresDepartmento de Engenharia Florestal, Universidade Federal de Viçosa – UFV, Avenida P. H. Rolfs, s/n, Campus UFV, CEP 36570-000, Viçosa, MG, Brasil e-mail: torresftp2@gmail.com