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ORIGINAL ARTICLE • Epidemiol. Serv. Saúde 25 (3) • Jul-Sep 2016 • https://doi.org/10.5123/S1679-49742016000300003   copy

Spatial and temporal analysis of Aids cases in Brazil, 1996-2011: increased risk areas over time* * Manuscript based on Artur Iuri Alves de Sousa's Master's thesis, defended at the Postgraduate Program in Tropical Medicine of Tropical Medicine Center of the University of Brasilia, on 2004. The main author had a scholarship of the Master Social Demand Program from the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel - the CAPES Foundation/Ministry of Education (code: 53001010015P0).

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

OBJECTIVE:

to identify areas with greater risk of AIDS transmission in Brazil.

METHODS:

this is an ecological study involving georeference of AIDS cases incidence, prevalence and density in Brazilian municipalities using the Kernel method for the periods 1996-1999, 2000-2003, 2004-2007 and 2008-2011.

RESULTS:

633,512 AIDS cases were reported between 1996-2011; between 2008-2011, there was increased risk of AIDS transmission in Recife-João Pessoa region, the emergence of areas with average density in the regions of Belém, São Luís, Maceió, Aracaju and Salvador, and a decline in the intensity of risk in São Paulo, Campinas and Ribeirão Preto; prevalence rates were most concentrated in the Southeast, South and Midwest regions of the country.

CONCLUSION:

overall, AIDS incidence in Brazil showed successive increases in the periods analyzed; case prevalence indicates spatial clusters, with high concentrations in the Southeast, South and Midwest regions.

Key words:
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome; Risk; Indicators; Spatial Analysis; Ecological Studies

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