Abstract
A forecast of nonepidemic morbidity due to acute respiratory infections were carry out by using time series analysis. The data consisted of the weekly reports of medical patient consultation from ambulatory facilities from the whole country. A version of regression model was fitted to the data. Using this approach, we were able to detect the starting data of the epidemic under routine surveillance conditions for various age groups. It will be necessary to improve the data reporting system in order to introduce these procedures at the local health center level, as well as on the provincial level.
ARI time series analysis; ARI endemicity forecasting
Forecast of acute respiratory infections: expected nonepidemic mobidity in Cuba
Armando Aguirre1
Edilberto Gonzalez1
Instituto Pedro Kouri, Division de Epidemiologia, La Habana, Cuba
A forecast of nonepidemic morbidity due to acute respiratory infections were carry out by using time series analysis. The data consisted of the weekly reports of medical patient consultation from ambulatory facilities from the whole country. A version of regression model was fitted to the data. Using this approach, we were able to detect the starting data of the epidemic under routine surveillance conditions for various age groups. It will be necessary to improve the data reporting system in order to introduce these procedures at the local health center level, as well as on the provincial level.
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Publication Dates
-
Publication in this collection
15 June 2009 -
Date of issue
Sept 1992