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Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz

Print version ISSN 0074-0276On-line version ISSN 1678-8060

Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz vol.88 no.2 Rio de Janeiro Apr./June 1993

http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0074-02761993000200009 

A model for intra-familial distribution of an infectious disease (Chagas' disease)

M. F. Feitosa1 

H. Krieger2 

Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Departamento de Genética, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil

Universidade de São Paulo, Instituto de Ciências Biomédicas, Departamento de Parasitologia, São Paulo, Brasil

ABSTRACT

A probabilistic model for intra-familial distribution of infectous disease is proposed and applied to the prevalence of positive serology for Trypanosoma cruzi infection in Northeastern Brazilian sample. This double with one tail excess model fits satisfactorily to the data and its interpretation says that around 51% of these 982 families are free of infection risk; among those that are at risk, 3% have a high risk (0.66), probably due to high domestic infestation of the vector bug; while 97% show a small risk (0.11), probably due to accidental, non-domestic transmission.

Key words: intra-familial distribution; infectious disease; Chagas' disease; double binomial

 

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