Fatores determinantes e evolução da economia submersa no Brasil

Ribeiro, Roberto Name; Bugarin, Mirta Noemi Sataka

doi:10.1590/S0101-41612003000300002

Resumos

O presente estudo visa determinar os principais fatores econômicos que estimulam a atividade econômica submersa do Brasil e analisar a sua evolução durante o período 1994-1999. A metodologia consiste na utilização do modelo MIMIC, ou de múltiplas causas e múltiplos indicadores, desenvolvido por Joreskog e Goldberger (1975) e estimado mediante o LISREL de Joreskog e Sorbon (1993). Depreende-se da análise, primeiro, que a carga tributária, o grau de regulamentação da economia e a taxa de desemprego atuam como fortes fatores determinantes da atividade subterrânea no País e, segundo, que a evolução do índice da economia submersa, estimado pelo modelo, apresenta um nítido crescimento durante o período de análise.

economia submersa; índice da economia submersa; modelo múltiplas causas múltiplos indicadores

The present study aims to determine the main economic factors acting as the driving force of the Brazilian informal economic activity and analyze its evolution during the period 1994-1999. To this end, the MIMIC (multiple indexes multiple indirect causes) model developed by Joreskog e Goldberger (1975) is estimated using the Joreskog e Sorbon (1993)' s LISREL software. The econometric results suggest that, first, the tax burden, the degree of economic activity regulation as well as the unemployment rate are the strongest factors acting as the driving force behind the informal activity in the country and, second, that the informal economic activity index estimated by the model presents a clear increase along the considered period of study.

shadow economy; informal economic activity index; MIMIC models

Fatores determinantes e evolução da economia submersa no Brasil

Roberto Name Ribeiro^I; Mirta Noemi Sataka Bugarin^II

^IReceita Federal, Ministério da Fazenda

^IIDepartamento de Economia, Universidade de Brasília

RESUMO

O presente estudo visa determinar os principais fatores econômicos que estimulam a atividade econômica submersa do Brasil e analisar a sua evolução durante o período 1994-1999. A metodologia consiste na utilização do modelo MIMIC, ou de múltiplas causas e múltiplos indicadores, desenvolvido por Joreskog e Goldberger (1975) e estimado mediante o LISREL de Joreskog e Sorbon (1993). Depreende-se da análise, primeiro, que a carga tributária, o grau de regulamentação da economia e a taxa de desemprego atuam como fortes fatores determinantes da atividade subterrânea no País e, segundo, que a evolução do índice da economia submersa, estimado pelo modelo, apresenta um nítido crescimento durante o período de análise.

Palavras-chave: economia submersa, índice da economia submersa, modelo múltiplas causas múltiplos indicadores.

ABSTRACT

The present study aims to determine the main economic factors acting as the driving force of the Brazilian informal economic activity and analyze its evolution during the period 1994-1999. To this end, the MIMIC (multiple indexes multiple indirect causes) model developed by Joreskog e Goldberger (1975) is estimated using the Joreskog e Sorbon (1993)' s LISREL software. The econometric results suggest that, first, the tax burden, the degree of economic activity regulation as well as the unemployment rate are the strongest factors acting as the driving force behind the informal activity in the country and, second, that the informal economic activity index estimated by the model presents a clear increase along the considered period of study.

Key words: shadow economy, informal economic activity index, MIMIC models.

JEL Classification

O17

Texto completo disponível apenas em PDF.

Full text available only in PDF format.

(Recebido em agosto de 2001. Aceito para publicação em abril de 2003).

e-mail: robertonr@receita.fazenda.gov.br

e-mail: mirta@unb.br

ADAM, M.; GINSBURGH, V. The effects of irregular markets on macroeconomic policy: some estimates for Belgium. European Economic Revenue, v. 29, p. 1, p. 15-33, 1985.
AIGNER, D. J.; SCHNEIDER, F.; GOSH, D. Me and my shadow: estimating the size of the ridden economy from time series data. In: BARNETT et alii (ed.), Dynamic theory and econometrics Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988, p. 297-334.
ASEA, P. K. The informal sector: baby or bath water? Carnegie-Rochester Conf. Series Public Policy 45, p. 163-71, 1996.
Bajada, C. Estimates of the underground economy in Australia. The Economic Record, v. 75, n. 231, p. 369-384, 1999.
BUCHANAN, J; FAITH, R. Secession and the limits of taxation: toward a theory of internal exit. The American Economic Review, v. 77, issue 5, p. 1023-1031, 1987.
BRAUN, J.; LOAYZA, N. V. Taxation, public services, and the informal sector in a model of endogenous growth. Policy Research Working Paper The World Bank, 1994.
CACCIAMALI, M. C. Setor informal urbano e formas de participação São Paulo: IPE/USP, 1983, Séries Ensaios Econômicos n. 20.
_______. Mudanças estruturais no produto e emprego no Brasil: 1950-1980. FEA/USP, 1988. Mimeografado.
_______. As economias informal e submersa: conceitos e distribuição de renda. In: CAMARGO, J. M.; GIAMBIAGI, F. (orgs.), Distribuição de renda no Brasil. São Paulo: Editora Paz e Terra, 1991.
CARNEIRO, F. G. The changing informal labour market in Brazil: cyclicality versus excessive intervention. LABOUR. Review of Labour Economics and Industrial Relations, v. 11, n. 1, p. 01-22, 1997.
DE SOTO, H. The other path (El otro sendero. Translated by June Abbott) NY: Harper and Row, 1989.
FEIGE, E. L. How big is the irregular economy ? Challenge, The Magazine of Economic Affairs, v. 22, n. 5, p. 5-13, 1979.
_______. The underground economy and the currency enigma. Supplement to Public Finance, Finances Publiques, 49, p. 119-36, 1994.
FICHTENBAUM, R. The productivity slowdown and the underground economy. Quarterly Journal of Business Economy, v. 28, n. 3, p. 78-90, 1989.
FREY, B. S. Not just for money. An economic theory of personal motivation. Cheltenham: Elgar Publications, 1997.
FREY, B. S.; HANNELORE, W. Estimating the shadow economy: A `naive' approach. Oxford Economy Papers, 35, p. 23-44, 1983.
FRIEDMAN, E.; SIMON, J.; KAUFMANN, D.; ZOIDO-LOBATÓN, P. Dodging the grabbling hand: the determinants of unofficial activity in 69 countries. World Bank Discussion Paper, 1999.
GATICA, J. Evolución e alternativas de medición de la estrutura ocupacional brasilera: 1979-1980. Brasília: MTb/SES, 1989. Mimeografado.
GILES, D. E. A. Modelling the hidden economy and the tax gap in New Zealand. Economy Dept. Working Paper, U. Victoria, Canada, 1999.
GUTMANN, P. M. Statistical illusions, mistaken policies. Challenge The Magazine of Economic Affairs, v. 22, n. 5, p. 14-17, 1979.
HART, K. Informal income opportunities and urban employment in Ghana ILO, unpublished, 1971.
HUNT, J. Has work-sharing worked in Germany? Quarterly Journal of Economics, v. 89, n. 1, p. 117-48, 1999.
IBGE - Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Economia informal urbana 1997 V. 1 Brasil e Grandes Regiões. Rio de Janeiro, 1999.
JATOBÁ, J. Urban poverty, labor markets and regional development: the case of Brazil. Artigo apresentado no Brazilian Meeting on Labor Market and Income Distribution. Rio de Janeiro, 1987. Mimeografado.
JOHNSON, S.; KAUFMANN, D.; ZOIDO-LOBATÓN, P. Corruption, public finances and the unofficial economy. World Bank Discussion Paper, 1998.
JORESKOG, K.; GOLDBERGER, A. S. Estimation of a model with multiple indicators and multiple causes of a single latent variable. Journal of The American Statistical Association, v. 70, n. 351, p. 631-39, 1975.
JORESKOG, K.; SORBOM, D. LISREL 8.3: structural equation modeling with the SIMPLIS command language, scientific software international. Chicago, 1993.
LEMIEUX, T., FORTIN, B.; FRÉCHETTE, P. The effect of taxes on labor supply in the underground economy. American Economic Review, v. 84, n. 1, p. 231-54, 1994.
LIMA, B. M. Criptoeconomia ou economia subterrânea: uma investigação preliminar no Brasil. Estudos Especiais, n. 5, IBRE/FGV, 1985.
LOAYZA, N. A. Labor regulations and the informal economy. Policy Research Working Paper, The World Bank, 1994.
_______. The economics of the informal sector: a simple model and some empirical evidence from Latin America. Policy Research Working Paper, The World Bank, 1997.
MARCOUILLER, D; YOUNG, L. The black hole of graft: the predatory state and the informal economy. The American Economic Review, v. 85, issue 3, p. 630-646, 1995.
MIRUS, R.; SMITH, R. S. Canada's underground economy: measurement and implications. In: LIPPERT, Owen; WALKER, Michael (eds.), The underground economy: global evidence of its size and impact. Vancouver: Fraser Institute, 1997.
O' HIGGINS, M. The relationship between the formal and hidden economies: an exploratory analysis for four countries. In: GAERTNER, W.; WENIG, A. nome da olbra. 1985.
OIT. Employment, income and equality: a strategy for increasing productive employment in Kenya. Genebra, 1972
RAMOS, C. A.; CARNEIRO, F. G. A trajetória do emprego: 1987-1988. MTb, 1989. Mimeografado.
SCHNEIDER, F. Estimating the size of the Danish shadow economy using the currency demand approach: an attempt. Scandinavian Journal of Economy, v. 88, n. 4, p. 643-68, 1986.
_______. Can the shadow economy be reduced through major tax reforms? An empirical investigation for Austria. Supplement to Public Finance/Finances Publiques, 49, p. 137-52, 1994.
SCHNEIDER, F.; ENSTE, D. H. Shadow economies: size, causes, and consequences. Journal of Economic Literature, 38, p. 77-114, 2000.
SCHNEIDER, F.; NECK, R. The development of the shadow economy under changing tax systems and structures", Finanzarchiv N. F., v. 50, n. 3, p. 344-69, 1993.
SHEPHERD, G.; HOLDEN, P. An assessment of the private sector in Brazil Washington, DC: World Bank, 1993. Mimeografado.
SMITH, P. Assessing the size of the underground economy: the Canadian statistical perspectives. Canadian Economic. Observer, Cat. No. 11-010, 3.16-33 to 3.18, 1994.
STREIT, M. E. The shadow economy: a challenge to the welfare state? Ordo Year-book, 35, p. 109-19, 1984.
TANZI, V. The underground economy in the United States: annual estimates, 1930-1980. IMF Staff Papers, v. 30, n. 2, p. 283-305, 1983.
TANZI, V.; SHOME, P. A primer on tax eEvasion. IMF Staff Papers, v. 40, n. 4, p. 807-28, 1993.
TEDDS, L. M.; GILES, D. E. A. Modeling the underground economies in Canada and New Zealand: a comparative analysis. Econometrics Working Paper, EWP0003 ISSN 1485-6441, 2000.

Datas de Publicação

Publicação nesta coleção
13 Out 2009
Data do Fascículo
Set 2003

Histórico

Aceito
Abr 2003
Recebido
Ago 2001

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

[1] ADAM, M.; GINSBURGH, V. The effects of irregular markets on macroeconomic policy: some estimates for Belgium. European Economic Revenue, v. 29, p. 1, p. 15-33, 1985.

[2] AIGNER, D. J.; SCHNEIDER, F.; GOSH, D. Me and my shadow: estimating the size of the ridden economy from time series data. In: BARNETT et alii (ed.), Dynamic theory and econometrics Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988, p. 297-334.

[3] ASEA, P. K. The informal sector: baby or bath water? Carnegie-Rochester Conf. Series Public Policy 45, p. 163-71, 1996.

[4] Bajada, C. Estimates of the underground economy in Australia. The Economic Record, v. 75, n. 231, p. 369-384, 1999.

[5] BUCHANAN, J; FAITH, R. Secession and the limits of taxation: toward a theory of internal exit. The American Economic Review, v. 77, issue 5, p. 1023-1031, 1987.

[6] BRAUN, J.; LOAYZA, N. V. Taxation, public services, and the informal sector in a model of endogenous growth. Policy Research Working Paper The World Bank, 1994.

[7] CACCIAMALI, M. C. Setor informal urbano e formas de participação São Paulo: IPE/USP, 1983, Séries Ensaios Econômicos n. 20.

[8] _______. Mudanças estruturais no produto e emprego no Brasil: 1950-1980. FEA/USP, 1988. Mimeografado.

[9] _______. As economias informal e submersa: conceitos e distribuição de renda. In: CAMARGO, J. M.; GIAMBIAGI, F. (orgs.), Distribuição de renda no Brasil. São Paulo: Editora Paz e Terra, 1991.

[10] CARNEIRO, F. G. The changing informal labour market in Brazil: cyclicality versus excessive intervention. LABOUR. Review of Labour Economics and Industrial Relations, v. 11, n. 1, p. 01-22, 1997.

[11] DE SOTO, H. The other path (El otro sendero. Translated by June Abbott) NY: Harper and Row, 1989.

[12] FEIGE, E. L. How big is the irregular economy ? Challenge, The Magazine of Economic Affairs, v. 22, n. 5, p. 5-13, 1979.

[13] _______. The underground economy and the currency enigma. Supplement to Public Finance, Finances Publiques, 49, p. 119-36, 1994.

[14] FICHTENBAUM, R. The productivity slowdown and the underground economy. Quarterly Journal of Business Economy, v. 28, n. 3, p. 78-90, 1989.

[15] FREY, B. S. Not just for money. An economic theory of personal motivation. Cheltenham: Elgar Publications, 1997.

[16] FREY, B. S.; HANNELORE, W. Estimating the shadow economy: A `naive' approach. Oxford Economy Papers, 35, p. 23-44, 1983.

[17] FRIEDMAN, E.; SIMON, J.; KAUFMANN, D.; ZOIDO-LOBATÓN, P. Dodging the grabbling hand: the determinants of unofficial activity in 69 countries. World Bank Discussion Paper, 1999.

[18] GATICA, J. Evolución e alternativas de medición de la estrutura ocupacional brasilera: 1979-1980. Brasília: MTb/SES, 1989. Mimeografado.

[19] GILES, D. E. A. Modelling the hidden economy and the tax gap in New Zealand. Economy Dept. Working Paper, U. Victoria, Canada, 1999.

[20] GUTMANN, P. M. Statistical illusions, mistaken policies. Challenge The Magazine of Economic Affairs, v. 22, n. 5, p. 14-17, 1979.

[21] HART, K. Informal income opportunities and urban employment in Ghana ILO, unpublished, 1971.

[22] HUNT, J. Has work-sharing worked in Germany? Quarterly Journal of Economics, v. 89, n. 1, p. 117-48, 1999.

[23] IBGE - Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Economia informal urbana 1997 V. 1 Brasil e Grandes Regiões. Rio de Janeiro, 1999.

[24] JATOBÁ, J. Urban poverty, labor markets and regional development: the case of Brazil. Artigo apresentado no Brazilian Meeting on Labor Market and Income Distribution. Rio de Janeiro, 1987. Mimeografado.

[25] JOHNSON, S.; KAUFMANN, D.; ZOIDO-LOBATÓN, P. Corruption, public finances and the unofficial economy. World Bank Discussion Paper, 1998.

[26] JORESKOG, K.; GOLDBERGER, A. S. Estimation of a model with multiple indicators and multiple causes of a single latent variable. Journal of The American Statistical Association, v. 70, n. 351, p. 631-39, 1975.

[27] JORESKOG, K.; SORBOM, D. LISREL 8.3: structural equation modeling with the SIMPLIS command language, scientific software international. Chicago, 1993.

[28] LEMIEUX, T., FORTIN, B.; FRÉCHETTE, P. The effect of taxes on labor supply in the underground economy. American Economic Review, v. 84, n. 1, p. 231-54, 1994.

[29] LIMA, B. M. Criptoeconomia ou economia subterrânea: uma investigação preliminar no Brasil. Estudos Especiais, n. 5, IBRE/FGV, 1985.

[30] LOAYZA, N. A. Labor regulations and the informal economy. Policy Research Working Paper, The World Bank, 1994.

[31] _______. The economics of the informal sector: a simple model and some empirical evidence from Latin America. Policy Research Working Paper, The World Bank, 1997.

[32] MARCOUILLER, D; YOUNG, L. The black hole of graft: the predatory state and the informal economy. The American Economic Review, v. 85, issue 3, p. 630-646, 1995.

[33] MIRUS, R.; SMITH, R. S. Canada's underground economy: measurement and implications. In: LIPPERT, Owen; WALKER, Michael (eds.), The underground economy: global evidence of its size and impact. Vancouver: Fraser Institute, 1997.

[34] O' HIGGINS, M. The relationship between the formal and hidden economies: an exploratory analysis for four countries. In: GAERTNER, W.; WENIG, A. nome da olbra. 1985.

[35] OIT. Employment, income and equality: a strategy for increasing productive employment in Kenya. Genebra, 1972

[36] RAMOS, C. A.; CARNEIRO, F. G. A trajetória do emprego: 1987-1988. MTb, 1989. Mimeografado.

[37] SCHNEIDER, F. Estimating the size of the Danish shadow economy using the currency demand approach: an attempt. Scandinavian Journal of Economy, v. 88, n. 4, p. 643-68, 1986.

[38] _______. Can the shadow economy be reduced through major tax reforms? An empirical investigation for Austria. Supplement to Public Finance/Finances Publiques, 49, p. 137-52, 1994.

[39] SCHNEIDER, F.; ENSTE, D. H. Shadow economies: size, causes, and consequences. Journal of Economic Literature, 38, p. 77-114, 2000.

[40] SCHNEIDER, F.; NECK, R. The development of the shadow economy under changing tax systems and structures", Finanzarchiv N. F., v. 50, n. 3, p. 344-69, 1993.

[41] SHEPHERD, G.; HOLDEN, P. An assessment of the private sector in Brazil Washington, DC: World Bank, 1993. Mimeografado.

[42] SMITH, P. Assessing the size of the underground economy: the Canadian statistical perspectives. Canadian Economic. Observer, Cat. No. 11-010, 3.16-33 to 3.18, 1994.

[43] STREIT, M. E. The shadow economy: a challenge to the welfare state? Ordo Year-book, 35, p. 109-19, 1984.

[44] TANZI, V. The underground economy in the United States: annual estimates, 1930-1980. IMF Staff Papers, v. 30, n. 2, p. 283-305, 1983.

[45] TANZI, V.; SHOME, P. A primer on tax eEvasion. IMF Staff Papers, v. 40, n. 4, p. 807-28, 1993.

[46] TEDDS, L. M.; GILES, D. E. A. Modeling the underground economies in Canada and New Zealand: a comparative analysis. Econometrics Working Paper, EWP0003 ISSN 1485-6441, 2000.