Assessment of invasive potential of Homalodisca coagulata in western North America and south America

Peterson, A. Townsend; Scachetti-Pereira, Ricardo; Kluza, Daniel A.

doi:10.1590/S1676-06032003000100006

Abstracts

The potential of Homalodisca coagulata to invade South America is a question of economic importance, given its potential impact as a disease vector for several crops. We developed ecological niche models for the species on its native geographic distribution in the southeastern United States; we tested the predictivity of the models both on the native distributional area and via projections to California, where the species has long been present as an invasive species. In both cases, tests indicated high statistical significance of predictions. Projection of models to South America indicated little possibility of invasion of southeastern Brazil, where citrus diseases were of concern. However, all models agree in predict-ing great risk of establishment in the wine-growing regions of northern Argentina and extreme southern Brazil; great precaution is thus to be recommended when any movements of bio-materials are made from infected areas to this region.

ecological niche modeling; invasive species; Xylella fastidiosa; vector

A possibilidade de invasão da América do Sul por Homalodisca coagulata é uma questão de relevância econômica, dado o potencial de seu impacto como um vetor para agentes fitopatológicos. Foram desenvolvidos modelos de nicho ecológico para a espécie na sua área de distribuição geográfica nativa, no sudeste dos Estados Unidos. A capacidade de previsão dos modelos foi testada tanto na área de distribuição nativa quanto em projeções no estado da Califórnia, onde a espécie tem estado presente por muito tempo como uma espécie invasora. Em ambos os casos, os testes indicaram alta significância estatística para as previsões. Projeções dos mesmos modelos para a América do Sul indicaram poucas chances de invasão ao sudeste do Brasil, local em que doenças em culturas de cítricos são preocupantes. Entretanto, todos os modelos são concordantes ao prever alto risco de estabelecimento da espécie na região onde se encontram as vinícolas do norte da Argentina e no extremo sul do Brasil. Recomenda-se então grande precaução no transporte de material biológico de áreas infectadas para a área em questão.

modelagem de nicho ecológico; espécies invasoras; Xylella fastidiosa; vetor

ARTICLE

Assessment of invasive potential of Homalodisca coagulata in western North America and south America

A. Townsend Peterson^I; Ricardo Scachetti-Pereira^II; Daniel A. Kluza^III

^I Natural History Museum, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas 66044 USA. E-mail town@ku.edu

^II Centro de Referência em Informação Ambiental, Av. Romeu Tórtima, 388, Barão Geraldo, 13084-520 Campinas SP, Brazil. E-mail ricardo@cria.org.br

^IIINatural History Museum, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas 66044 USA. E-mail E-mail dakluza@ku.edu

ABSTRACT

The potential of Homalodisca coagulata to invade South America is a question of economic importance, given its potential impact as a disease vector for several crops. We developed ecological niche models for the species on its native geographic distribution in the southeastern United States; we tested the predictivity of the models both on the native distributional area and via projections to California, where the species has long been present as an invasive species. In both cases, tests indicated high statistical significance of predictions. Projection of models to South America indicated little possibility of invasion of southeastern Brazil, where citrus diseases were of concern. However, all models agree in predict-ing great risk of establishment in the wine-growing regions of northern Argentina and extreme southern Brazil; great precaution is thus to be recommended when any movements of bio-materials are made from infected areas to this region.

Keywords: ecological niche modeling, invasive species, Xylella fastidiosa, vector.

RESUMO

A possibilidade de invasão da América do Sul por Homalodisca coagulata é uma questão de relevância econômica, dado o potencial de seu impacto como um vetor para agentes fitopatológicos. Foram desenvolvidos modelos de nicho ecológico para a espécie na sua área de distribuição geográfica nativa, no sudeste dos Estados Unidos. A capacidade de previsão dos modelos foi testada tanto na área de distribuição nativa quanto em projeções no estado da Califórnia, onde a espécie tem estado presente por muito tempo como uma espécie invasora. Em ambos os casos, os testes indicaram alta significância estatística para as previsões. Projeções dos mesmos modelos para a América do Sul indicaram poucas chances de invasão ao sudeste do Brasil, local em que doenças em culturas de cítricos são preocupantes. Entretanto, todos os modelos são concordantes ao prever alto risco de estabelecimento da espécie na região onde se encontram as vinícolas do norte da Argentina e no extremo sul do Brasil. Recomenda-se então grande precaução no transporte de material biológico de áreas infectadas para a área em questão.

Palavras-chave: modelagem de nicho ecológico, espécies invasoras, Xylella fastidiosa, vetor.

Full text available only in PDF format.

Texto completo disponível apenas em PDF.

Recebido em 19/12/2003

Revisado em 14/03/2003

Publicado em 26/03/2003

¹
ANDERSON, R. P., GOMEZ, M. & PETERSON, A. T. 2002a. Geographical distributions of spiny pocket mice in South America: Insights from predictive models. Glo-bal Ecol. and Biogeogr., v. 11, p. 131-141.
²
ANDERSON, R. P., LAVERDE, M. & PETERSON, A. T. 2002b. Using niche-based GIS modeling to test geographic predictions of competitive exclusion and com-petitive release in South American pocket mice. Oikos, v. 93, p. 3-16.
³
ANDERSON, R. P., LEW, D. & PETERSON, A. T. 2003. Evaluating predictive models of species distribu-tions: criteria for selecting optimal models. Ecol. Model., v. 162, p. 211 232.
⁴
GODOWN, M. E. & PETERSON, A. T. 2000. Pre-liminary distributional analysis of U.S. endangered bird species. Biodivers. Conserv., v. 9, p. 1313-1322.
⁵
GRINNELL, J. 1917. Field tests of theories con-cerning distributional control. Am. Natur., v. 51, p. 115-128.
⁶
PETERSON, A. T. 2001. Predicting species geo-graphic distributions based on ecological niche model-ing. Condor, v. 103, p. 599-605.
⁷
PETERSON, A. T., BALL, L. G. & COHOON, K. C. 2002a. Predicting distributions of tropical birds. Ibis, v. 144, p. e27-e32.
⁸
PETERSON, A. T. & COHOON, K. C. 1999. Sensi-tivity of distributional prediction algorithms to geo-graphic data completeness. Ecol. Model., v. 117, p. 159-164.
⁹
PETERSON, A. T., EGBERT, S. L., SANCHEZ-CORDERO, V. & PRICE, K. P. 2000. Geographic analysis of conservation priorities using distributional modelling and complementarity: Endemic birds and mammals in Veracruz, Mexico. Biol. Conserv., v. 93, p. 85-94.
¹⁰
PETERSON, A. T., ORTEGA-HUERTA, M. A., BARTLEY, J., SANCHEZ-CORDERO, V., SOBERON, J., BUDDEMEIER, R. H. & STOCKWELL, D. R. B. 2002b. Future projections for Mexican faunas under global cli-mate change scenarios. Nature, v. 416, p. 626-629.
¹¹
PETERSON, A. T., SANCHEZ-CORDERO, V., SOBERON, J., BARTLEY, J., BUDDEMEIER, R. H. & NAVARRO-SIGUENZA, A. G. 2001. Effects of global cli-mate change on geographic distributions of Mexican Cracidae. Ecol. Model., v. 144, p. 21-30.
¹²
PETERSON, A. T., SCACHETTI-PEREIRA, R. & HARGROVE, W. W. Potential distribution of Asian longhorned beetles (Anoplophora glabripennis) in North America. J. Econ. Entomol., v. p. Submitted.
¹³
PETERSON, A. T., SOBERON, J. & SANCHEZ-CORDERO, V. 1999. Conservatism of ecological niches in evolutionary time. Science, v. 285, p. 1265-1267.
¹⁴
PETERSON, A. T., STOCKWELL, D. R. B. & KLUZA, D. A. 2002c. Distributional prediction based on ecological niche modeling of primary occurrence data. In: J. M. Scott (Ed.) Predicting species occurrences: Is-sues of scale and accuracy. Washington, D.C.: Island Press.
¹⁵
PETERSON, A. T. & VIEGLAIS, D. A. 2001. Pre-dicting species invasions using ecological niche model-ing. BioScience, v. 51, p. 363-371.
¹⁶
STOCKWELL, D. R. B. 1999. Genetic algorithms II. In: A. H. Fielding (Ed.) Machine learning methods for ecological applications. Boston: Kluwer Academic Pub-lishers. p. 123-144.
¹⁷
STOCKWELL, D. R. B. & NOBLE, I. R. 1992. In-duction of sets of rules from animal distribution data: A robust and informative method of analysis. Math. Comput. Simulat, v. 33, p. 385-390.
¹⁸
STOCKWELL, D. R. B. & PETERS, D. P. 1999. The GARP modelling system: Problems and solutions to au-tomated spatial prediction. Int. J. Geo. Inf. Syst., v. 13, p. 143-158.
¹⁹
STOCKWELL, D. R. B. & PETERSON, A. T. 2002a. Controlling bias in biodiversity data. In: J. M. Scott (Ed.) Predicting species occurrences: Issues of scale and ac-curacy. Washington, D.C.: Island Press.
²⁰
STOCKWELL, D. R. B. & PETERSON, A. T. 2002b. Effects of sample size on accuracy of species distribu-tion models. Ecol. Model, v. 148, p. 1-13.

Publication Dates

Publication in this collection
11 June 2013
Date of issue
2003

History

Accepted
26 Mar 2003
Reviewed
14 Mar 2003
Received
19 Dec 2003

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

[1] ¹
ANDERSON, R. P., GOMEZ, M. & PETERSON, A. T. 2002a. Geographical distributions of spiny pocket mice in South America: Insights from predictive models. Glo-bal Ecol. and Biogeogr., v. 11, p. 131-141.

[2] ²
ANDERSON, R. P., LAVERDE, M. & PETERSON, A. T. 2002b. Using niche-based GIS modeling to test geographic predictions of competitive exclusion and com-petitive release in South American pocket mice. Oikos, v. 93, p. 3-16.

[3] ³
ANDERSON, R. P., LEW, D. & PETERSON, A. T. 2003. Evaluating predictive models of species distribu-tions: criteria for selecting optimal models. Ecol. Model., v. 162, p. 211 232.

[4] ⁴
GODOWN, M. E. & PETERSON, A. T. 2000. Pre-liminary distributional analysis of U.S. endangered bird species. Biodivers. Conserv., v. 9, p. 1313-1322.

[5] ⁵
GRINNELL, J. 1917. Field tests of theories con-cerning distributional control. Am. Natur., v. 51, p. 115-128.

[6] ⁶
PETERSON, A. T. 2001. Predicting species geo-graphic distributions based on ecological niche model-ing. Condor, v. 103, p. 599-605.

[7] ⁷
PETERSON, A. T., BALL, L. G. & COHOON, K. C. 2002a. Predicting distributions of tropical birds. Ibis, v. 144, p. e27-e32.

[8] ⁸
PETERSON, A. T. & COHOON, K. C. 1999. Sensi-tivity of distributional prediction algorithms to geo-graphic data completeness. Ecol. Model., v. 117, p. 159-164.

[9] ⁹
PETERSON, A. T., EGBERT, S. L., SANCHEZ-CORDERO, V. & PRICE, K. P. 2000. Geographic analysis of conservation priorities using distributional modelling and complementarity: Endemic birds and mammals in Veracruz, Mexico. Biol. Conserv., v. 93, p. 85-94.

[10] ¹⁰
PETERSON, A. T., ORTEGA-HUERTA, M. A., BARTLEY, J., SANCHEZ-CORDERO, V., SOBERON, J., BUDDEMEIER, R. H. & STOCKWELL, D. R. B. 2002b. Future projections for Mexican faunas under global cli-mate change scenarios. Nature, v. 416, p. 626-629.

[11] ¹¹
PETERSON, A. T., SANCHEZ-CORDERO, V., SOBERON, J., BARTLEY, J., BUDDEMEIER, R. H. & NAVARRO-SIGUENZA, A. G. 2001. Effects of global cli-mate change on geographic distributions of Mexican Cracidae. Ecol. Model., v. 144, p. 21-30.

[12] ¹²
PETERSON, A. T., SCACHETTI-PEREIRA, R. & HARGROVE, W. W. Potential distribution of Asian longhorned beetles (Anoplophora glabripennis) in North America. J. Econ. Entomol., v. p. Submitted.

[13] ¹³
PETERSON, A. T., SOBERON, J. & SANCHEZ-CORDERO, V. 1999. Conservatism of ecological niches in evolutionary time. Science, v. 285, p. 1265-1267.

[14] ¹⁴
PETERSON, A. T., STOCKWELL, D. R. B. & KLUZA, D. A. 2002c. Distributional prediction based on ecological niche modeling of primary occurrence data. In: J. M. Scott (Ed.) Predicting species occurrences: Is-sues of scale and accuracy. Washington, D.C.: Island Press.

[15] ¹⁵
PETERSON, A. T. & VIEGLAIS, D. A. 2001. Pre-dicting species invasions using ecological niche model-ing. BioScience, v. 51, p. 363-371.

[16] ¹⁶
STOCKWELL, D. R. B. 1999. Genetic algorithms II. In: A. H. Fielding (Ed.) Machine learning methods for ecological applications. Boston: Kluwer Academic Pub-lishers. p. 123-144.

[17] ¹⁷
STOCKWELL, D. R. B. & NOBLE, I. R. 1992. In-duction of sets of rules from animal distribution data: A robust and informative method of analysis. Math. Comput. Simulat, v. 33, p. 385-390.

[18] ¹⁸
STOCKWELL, D. R. B. & PETERS, D. P. 1999. The GARP modelling system: Problems and solutions to au-tomated spatial prediction. Int. J. Geo. Inf. Syst., v. 13, p. 143-158.

[19] ¹⁹
STOCKWELL, D. R. B. & PETERSON, A. T. 2002a. Controlling bias in biodiversity data. In: J. M. Scott (Ed.) Predicting species occurrences: Issues of scale and ac-curacy. Washington, D.C.: Island Press.

[20] ²⁰
STOCKWELL, D. R. B. & PETERSON, A. T. 2002b. Effects of sample size on accuracy of species distribu-tion models. Ecol. Model, v. 148, p. 1-13.