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A new Bayesian approach to the Toler model for evaluating the adaptability and stability of genotypes

Abstract

This study aimed to apply, in unprecedented depth, a Bayesian approach to the non-linear regression model developed by Toler for evaluating the stability and adaptability of genotypes. Twenty-five soybean cultivars were evaluated in twenty-one plots across the midwestern of Brazil. A complete block design was employed, with three replications. The evaluated variable was grain yield. The proposed methodology was implemented in the R program by means of the BRugs package. The methodology was capable of differentiating the effect of the environment on soybean cultivars in terms of yield in the different environments, allowing exploration of the response of each genotype to environmental variations. Cultivars 6266RSF, NS6990, GD19I435, GD19I439, GD19C443, RC0496 and IA18661 presented good stability and general adaptability, being the most recommended for future evaluations. The other cultivars presented specific adaptability and high responsiveness to unfavorable environments.

Keywords:
Glycine max; non-linear models; genotype-environment interaction; non-linear regression

INTRODUCTION

Plant breeding programs aim to obtain genotypes that are high-yielding, stable and adaptable to a wide range of cultivation environments. Identifying widely adaptable genotypes may be difficult due to genotype-environment interaction (G × E), defined as the differential response of genotypes to environmental variation. In addition, this interaction may inflate estimates of genetic variance, resulting in an overestimation of the expected genetic gains (Cochran 1954Cochran WG1954 The combination of estimates from different experiments. Biometrics 10:101-129, Duarte and Vencovsky 1999Duarte JB, Vencovsky R1999 Interação genótipos x ambientes: uma introdução à análise “AMMI”. Sociedade Brasileira de Genética, Ribeirão Preto, 60p).

Inconsistent genotype performance in different environments is one of the main challenges faced by breeders. The occurrence of the G × E interaction can be statistically detected by joint variance analysis using repeated trials in more than one environment. However, it is recommended to carry out a thorough study of genotype stability and adaptability in order to evaluate the G × E interaction effect in detail (Cochran 1954Cochran WG1954 The combination of estimates from different experiments. Biometrics 10:101-129, Duarte and Vencovsky 1999Duarte JB, Vencovsky R1999 Interação genótipos x ambientes: uma introdução à análise “AMMI”. Sociedade Brasileira de Genética, Ribeirão Preto, 60p).

Several methods for evaluating the G × E interaction have been developed over the years, involving simple linear regression models (Finlay and Wilkinson 1963Finlay KW, Wilkinson GN1963 The analysis of adaptation in a plant-breeding program. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 14:742-754, Eberhart and Russell 1966Eberhart AS, Russell WA1966 Stability parameters for comparing varieties. Crop Science 6:36-40), segmented regression (Verma et al. 1978Verma MM, Chahal GS, Murty BR1978 Limitation of conventional regression analysis: a proposed modification. Theorical and Applied Genetics 53:89-91, Cruz et al. 1989Cruz CD, Torres RAA, Vencovsky R1989 An alternative approach to the stability analysis proposed by Silva e Barreto. Revista Brasileira de Genética 12:567-580), and non-parametric analysis (Lin and Binns 1988Lin CS, Binns MR1988 A superiority measure of cultivar performance for cultivar x location data. Canadian Journal of Plant Science 68:193-198, Nascimento et al. 2010Nascimento M, Ferreira A, Ferrão RG, Campana ACM, Bhering LL, Cruz CD, Ferrão MAG, Fonseca AFA2010 Adaptabilidade e estabilidade via regressão não paramétrica em genótipos de café. Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira 45:41-48), as well as multivariate analysis methods such as GGE Biplot (Oliveira et al. 2016Oliveira LA, Silva CP, Nuvunga JJ, Silva AQ, Balestre M2016 Bayesian GGE biplot models applied to maize multi-environments trials. Genetics and Molecular Research 15:1-21), additive main effects and multiplicative interaction (AMMI) (Gauch 2006Gauch HG2006 Statistical analysis of yield trials by AMMI and GGE. Crop Science 46:1488-1500, Bernardo Júnior et al. 2018Bernardo Júnior LAY, Silva CP, Oliveira LA, Nuvunga JJ, Pires LPM, Von Pinho RG, Balestre M2018 AMMI Bayesian models to study stability and adaptability in maize. Agronomy Journal 110:1765-1776, Rosa et al. 2022Rosa JC, Scapim CA, Faria MV, Uhdre RS, Zaluski WL, Sagae VS2022 Maize topcrosses for yield performance by additive main effects and multiplicative interaction analysis. Ciência Rural 52:1-10), extended centroid and, recently, Bayesian models (Couto et al. 2015Couto MF, Nascimento M, Amaral AT, Silva FF, Viana AP, Vivas M2015 Eberhart and Russel Bayesian method in the selection of popcorn cultivars. Crop Science 55:571-577, Nascimento et al. 2020Nascimento M, Nascimento ACC, Silva FF, Teodoro PE, Azevedo CF, Oliveira TRA, Carvalho L2020 Bayesian segmented regression model for adaptability and stability evaluation of cotton genotypes. Euphytica 216:2, Oliveira et al. 2020Oliveira TRA, Carvalho HWL, Nascimento M, Costa EFN, Oliveira GHF, Gravina GA, Filho Filho, J LSC2020 Adaptability and stability evaluation of maize hybrids using Bayesian segmented regression models. Plos One 15:e0236571).

With the same goal of better describing genotypic response to the environment, Toler and Burrows (1998Toler JE, Burrows Burrows1998 Genotypic performance over environmental arrays: A non-linear grouping protocol. Applied Statistics 25:131-143) presented a non-linear regression model that allows joint estimation of parameters reflecting adaptation and stability (β 1i , β 2i , R2) and the environmental index (µ j ). This model improves on methods that employ simple linear regression, as it allows classification of genotypes into different groups according to their response patterns. However, as it is based on frequentist principles, this model also has limitations, as responses are only in one dimension and hard to interpret when there is no linearity (Hamawaki et al. 2015Hamawaki RL, Toshiyuki HO, Nogueira APO, Hamawaki CDL, Barbosa LDA2015 Adaptability and stability analysis of soybean genotypes using toler and centroid methods. American Journal of Plant Sciences 6:1509-1518, Jarquín et al. 2017Jarquín D, Silva CL, Gaynor RC, Poland J, Fritz A, Howard R, Battenfield S, Crossa J2017 Increasing genomic-enabled prediction accuracy by modeling genotype environment interactions in Kansas wheat. Plant Gene 10:1-15). Bi-segmented multiple regression models, as described by Cruz et al. (1989Cruz CD, Torres RAA, Vencovsky R1989 An alternative approach to the stability analysis proposed by Silva e Barreto. Revista Brasileira de Genética 12:567-580), allow the performance of each genotype to be represented by a single curve constituted by two straight segments. However, such models also have limitations regarding the estimation of the parameters and the precision of estimates.

Unlike frequentist methods, the Bayesian approach naturally allows the incorporation of additional information into the model via the a priori probability distribution (Couto et al. 2015Couto MF, Nascimento M, Amaral AT, Silva FF, Viana AP, Vivas M2015 Eberhart and Russel Bayesian method in the selection of popcorn cultivars. Crop Science 55:571-577, Nascimento et al. 2020Nascimento M, Nascimento ACC, Silva FF, Teodoro PE, Azevedo CF, Oliveira TRA, Carvalho L2020 Bayesian segmented regression model for adaptability and stability evaluation of cotton genotypes. Euphytica 216:2), which expresses one’s assumptions about previously observed data before certain evidence is taken into consideration. Based on these premises and seeking to fill a gap in the world literature, this study aimed to, in unprecedented depth, apply the Bayesian approach to the Toler method in order to evaluate the stability and adaptability of soybean genotypes.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The trials were carried out during the 2019/2020 crop season in 21 plots in various areas of midwestern Brazil (Goiás, Mato Grosso, and Maranhão states) (Table 1). Twenty-five soybean cultivars were evaluated: 6266RSF, 68I68RSF, NEO680, 68I69RSF, NS6990, GD19I435, GD19I439, GD19I434, GD19I438, GD19C443, RC0495, RC0496, RC6842, RC7904, RC0348, RC0349, SBC200381, RC5278, RC0377, CI8591, I10883, I17087, SBI200135, IA18617 and IA18661. A complete block design was employed with three replications. The experimental unit was represented by four rows 5.0 m long and spaced 0.45 m apart. The useful parcel area for grain yield evaluation was 4.0 m2; the two central rows were evaluated, discarding 0.25 m at each end. Culture was carried out according to recommendations for soybean cultivation in this region (Seixas et al. 2020Seixas CDS, Neumaier N, Balbinot Junior AA, Krzyzanowski FC, Leite RMVBC2020 Tecnologias de produção de soja. Embrapa Soja, Londrina, 347p).

Table 1
Geographic characteristics of the 21 environments evaluated in the Midwest region of Brazil

The grain yield data for each trial were subjected to standard individual variance analyses. Next, joint variance analysis was performed, for which the presence of heterogeneity between residual variances was evaluated using the Hartley test. When heterogeneity was detected, the degrees of freedom of the average error and interaction were adjusted according to the method described by Cochran (1954Cochran WG1954 The combination of estimates from different experiments. Biometrics 10:101-129). The significance of the F test was interpreted only after these adjustments. In the presence of significant G × E interaction, analyses of stability and adaptability were carried out using the method described by Toler and Burrows (1998Toler JE, Burrows Burrows1998 Genotypic performance over environmental arrays: A non-linear grouping protocol. Applied Statistics 25:131-143) via the Bayesian approach proposed by Nascimento et al. (2020Nascimento M, Nascimento ACC, Silva FF, Teodoro PE, Azevedo CF, Oliveira TRA, Carvalho L2020 Bayesian segmented regression model for adaptability and stability evaluation of cotton genotypes. Euphytica 216:2), such that:

Yij = αi + [Zjβ1i + 1 - Zjβ2i]μj + eij [1]

where:

Yij is the average response of genotype i in environment j (i= 1, 2, …, 25; j= 1, 2, …, 21);

αi reflects the response of genotype i in the environment of average yield (μ j = 0);

β1i and β2i reflect the sensitivity of the response of genotype i in environments with yields lower (μ j < 0) and higher (μ j > 0) than average, respectively;

μj reflects environmental quality, that is, the effect of environment j;

eij is the average experimental error;

Zj is a dummy indicator variable, with Zj = 1 when μ j < 0 and Zj = 0 when μ j > 0.

The environmental quality parameter μ j for this analysis was interpreted in the same way as the environmental index (I j ) of Eberhart and Russell (1966Eberhart AS, Russell WA1966 Stability parameters for comparing varieties. Crop Science 6:36-40). The analysis was conducted according to the Bayesian approach adapted by Couto et al. (2015Couto MF, Nascimento M, Amaral AT, Silva FF, Viana AP, Vivas M2015 Eberhart and Russel Bayesian method in the selection of popcorn cultivars. Crop Science 55:571-577) and Nascimento et al. (2020Nascimento M, Nascimento ACC, Silva FF, Teodoro PE, Azevedo CF, Oliveira TRA, Carvalho L2020 Bayesian segmented regression model for adaptability and stability evaluation of cotton genotypes. Euphytica 216:2). It must be pointed out that in linear regression models, environmental quality (the independent variable, I j ) is estimated separately before estimating the regression coefficients (b), whereas in Toler and Burrows (1998Toler JE, Burrows Burrows1998 Genotypic performance over environmental arrays: A non-linear grouping protocol. Applied Statistics 25:131-143), μ j is estimated simultaneously with the other regression parameters (favorable environment, μ j > 0; unfavorable environment, μ j < 0); the difference is that the use of μ j (j= 1, 2, 3, …, 21) allows different genotype response patterns to be distinguished, even with a narrow genetic base, in addition to distinguishing the non-linear regression model from the linear one and facilitating hypothesis testing for the parameters being evaluated.

Equation (1), which describes the behaviour of a given genotype, can be reduced to Yij = αi + βiμj + eij , when β 1i =β 2i =β common. To determine whether this equation could be represented by a mono-segmented model (single straight regression line) or required a bi-segmented model, hypothesis testing was performed, with the null hypothesis H0 being that β 1i =β 2i . Bi-segmented models can produce a convex, linear or concave response pattern (Figure 1). Toler and Burrows (1998Toler JE, Burrows Burrows1998 Genotypic performance over environmental arrays: A non-linear grouping protocol. Applied Statistics 25:131-143) describes five categories of genotype response patterns based on hypothesis testing, as follows:

A: H0 (β 1 =β 2) is rejected and β 1 < 1 <β 2 is accepted.

B: H0 (β 1 =β 2) is not rejected and H0 (β= 1) is rejected with β common>1.

C: H0 (β 1 =β 2) is not rejected and H0 (β common = 1) is not rejected.

D: H0 (β 1 =β 2) is not rejected and H0 (β= 1) is rejected, with β common < 1.

E: H0 (β 1 =β 2) is rejected and β 1 > 1 >β 2 is accepted.

Figure 1
Graphic example of a doubly desirable (A), doubly undesirable (B) and average (C) response in the Toler model.

In practical terms, A represents a ‘doubly desirable’ response (good performance in both favorable and unfavorable environments) with a convex response pattern; B represents a desirable response only in favorable environments, with a simple linear pattern; C represents a simple linear pattern with no deviation from the average response, D represents a desirable response only in unfavorable environments, with a simple linear pattern; and E represents a doubly undesirable response with a concave pattern. In other words, a convex or doubly desirable response pattern is observed when the genotype has low responsiveness to unfavorable environments (μ j < 0) and starts to respond satisfactorily when conditions become favorable (μ j > 0), whereas a concave or doubly undesirable response pattern is observed when the genotype is highly responsive to unfavorable environments and only slightly responsive to more favorable environments. For each stability analysis, the genetic cultivars were assigned to groups A to E according to the criteria described above.

For the Bayesian analysis, non-informative a priori distributions were assumed for parameters β 0, β 1, β 2 and σ2 di (stability), following Nascimento et al. (2020Nascimento M, Nascimento ACC, Silva FF, Teodoro PE, Azevedo CF, Oliveira TRA, Carvalho L2020 Bayesian segmented regression model for adaptability and stability evaluation of cotton genotypes. Euphytica 216:2). For the parameter β common, the model adopted by Couto et al. (2015Couto MF, Nascimento M, Amaral AT, Silva FF, Viana AP, Vivas M2015 Eberhart and Russel Bayesian method in the selection of popcorn cultivars. Crop Science 55:571-577) was followed. The proposed methodology was implemented in the R program (R Development Core Team 2022R Development Core Team2022 R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for statistical computing, Vienna. Available at <Available at https://www.R-project.org />. Accessed on March 15, 2022.
https://www.R-project.org...
), and samples of the independent a posteriori conditional distribution were obtained using the BRugs function in OpenBUGS (an open-source Bayesian analysis program), which binds OpenBUGS to R by means of MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) procedures, considering 550,000 interactions via the Gibbs sampler. A burn-in (initial burning) of 50,000 iterations was adopted, as well as a skip of 10 iterations to eliminate potential self-correlations. The convergence of the chains was verified by means of Gebeke (1992Geweke J1992 Evaluating the accuracy of sampling-based approaches to the calculation of posterior moments. In Bernardo LM, Berger J, Dawid AP and Smith AFM (eds) Bayesian statistics. Oxford University Press, Oxford, p. 169-193)’s and Raftery and Lewis’s diagnostics using the coda package in R (Plummer et al. 2006Plummer M, Best N, Cowles K, Vines K2006 Coda: Convergence diagnosis and output analysis for mcmc. R News 6:7-11).

To estimate the genetic parameters, their means and standard deviations were obtained a posteriori. These parameters were considered significant if their respective 95% credibility intervals did not contain a value of zero; that is, if the lower and upper limits of β 1 and β 2 exhibited a transition in value between positive and negative when β 1 =β 2 was rejected, or if β common was greater than 1 when β 1 =β 2 was not rejected.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

There were significant differences among genotypes, environments and G × E interactions (Table 2). Due to these differences in environmental influence, it was difficult to recommend cultivars suitable for the whole region of study, and a thorough analysis of interaction effects was necessary (Duarte and Vencovsky 1999Duarte JB, Vencovsky R1999 Interação genótipos x ambientes: uma introdução à análise “AMMI”. Sociedade Brasileira de Genética, Ribeirão Preto, 60p, Morais et al. 2008Morais LK, Moura MF, Vencovsky R, Pinheiro JB2008 Adaptabilidade e estabilidade fenotípica em soja avaliada pelo método de Toler. Bragantia 67:275-284). The coefficient of variation (CV) for grain yield (kg ha-1) was 14.20 (Table 2), indicating experimental control, and thus, it is suitable according to those reported in the literature (Morais et al. 2008, Hamawaki et al. 2015Hamawaki RL, Toshiyuki HO, Nogueira APO, Hamawaki CDL, Barbosa LDA2015 Adaptability and stability analysis of soybean genotypes using toler and centroid methods. American Journal of Plant Sciences 6:1509-1518, Matei et al. 2017Matei G, Benin G, Woyann LG, Dalló SC, Milioli Milioli, AS AS, Zdziarski AD2017 Agronomic performance of modern soybean cultivars in multi-environment trials. Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira 52:500-511, Nascimento et al. 2020Nascimento M, Nascimento ACC, Silva FF, Teodoro PE, Azevedo CF, Oliveira TRA, Carvalho L2020 Bayesian segmented regression model for adaptability and stability evaluation of cotton genotypes. Euphytica 216:2).

Table 2
Joint analysis of variance of soya yield (kg ha-1) of 25 soybean cultivars evaluated in 21 environments in the Midwest region of Brazil

The Bom Jesus, Luziânia, Mineiros, Montividiu 2, Morrinhos, Nova Ponte, Planalto Verde, and Turvelândia plots had the the most negative environmental index estimates and the lowest yields compared to the general average for each genotype, with the environment in Morrinhos being the most unfavorable with the lowest yield (2061.20 kg ha-1), making it the least recommended area for the evaluated cultivars (Table 3). In the Araguari, Jataí 1, Jataí 2, Montividiu 1, Paranaú 1, Paranaú 2, Rio Verde 1, Rio Verde 2, Rio Verde 3, Santa Helena, São Miguel, Serranópolis, and Uberlândia plots, the environmental index estimates were positive and yields were high compared to the genotype averages, with São Miguel being the best with a yield of 5262.21 kg ha-1. Thus, the difference between the plots with the highest and lowest yields was 3201.20 kg ha-1 (Table 3), indicating a high discrepancy in environmental favorability among the plots, which reaffirms the need for more thorough studies of the G × E interaction (Duarte and Vencovsky 1999Duarte JB, Vencovsky R1999 Interação genótipos x ambientes: uma introdução à análise “AMMI”. Sociedade Brasileira de Genética, Ribeirão Preto, 60p, Ferreira et al. 2006Ferreira DF, Demétri CGB, Manly BFJ, Machado AA, Vencovsky R2006 Statistical models in agriculture: biometrical methods for evaluating phenotypic stability in plant breeding. Cerne 12:373-388, Morais et al. 2008Morais LK, Moura MF, Vencovsky R, Pinheiro JB2008 Adaptabilidade e estabilidade fenotípica em soja avaliada pelo método de Toler. Bragantia 67:275-284).

Table 3
Average results for grain yield (kg ha-1) in soybeans and environmental quality indexes (μ j ) estimated by the Toler (1990)’s method, in cultivar competition tests, in 21 environments in the Midwest region of Brazil

Convergence in all generated chains was verified. Parameters of adaptability and stability were estimated and are presented in Table 4. Most of the evaluated genotypes presented differential responses before the environments were classified as favorable and unfavorable (β 1β 2), except for cultivars 6266RSF, NS6990, GD19I435, GD19I439, GD19C443, RC0496, and IA18661, as H0 (β 1=β 2) was not rejected in their case.

Table 4
Estimates for the mean a posteriori and credibility intervals (95% LB-UP) for the stability and adaptability parameters

None of the genotypes in the present study could be classified in Toler’s group A, as they were not highly responsive to favorable environments. Genotypes can be classified in group A if they are highly responsive to favorable environments but do not lose their potential in unfavorable environments; these can be considered the ideal genotypes in terms of adaptability. In general, these genotypes are demanding and require high environmental quality to express their full genetic production potential (Toler and Burrows 1998Toler JE, Burrows Burrows1998 Genotypic performance over environmental arrays: A non-linear grouping protocol. Applied Statistics 25:131-143). Rosse and Vencovsky (2000Rosse LN, Vencovsky R2000 Modelo de regressão não linear aplicado ao estudo da estabilidade fenotípica de genótipos de feijão no Estado de São Paulo. Bragantia 59:99-107) clarified that, in order to reach this potential, it is necessary to use advanced technologies to ensure good conditions (good fertilization, high hybrid availability, adequate handling and a favorable environment) because, under adverse conditions with μ j < 0, such genotypes produce relatively low yields. Genotypes such as these would not be the most recommended for environments where few technological resources are available.

Likewise, none of the genotypes in this study could be classified in groups B and D, as their response was not stable in different environments. Genotypes classified in group B present a linear response pattern before environmental favorability is determined, but their β common value is above 1.0, indicating greater inclination of the line towards favorable environments. Such genotypes can be considered more stable in environmental response, as they tend to exhibit phenotypic plasticity, that is, a degree of change in individual traits in different environments (Bradshaw 1965Bradshaw AD1965 Evolutionary significance of phenotypic plasticity. Advances in Genetics 13:115-153). Genotypes classified in group D also present a linear response before environmental favorability is determined, but β common is lower than 1.0, indicating greater inclination of the line towards unfavorable environments. It is important to point out that because the environmental favorability index (μ j ) highlights the divergences and contrasts among test locations, test locations as distinct as possible should be selected in order to maximize data regarding the adaptability and response stability of the genotypes being studied, thus enabling the best recommendations to be made (Cochran 1954Cochran WG1954 The combination of estimates from different experiments. Biometrics 10:101-129, Bradshaw 1965, Ferreira et al. 2006Ferreira DF, Demétri CGB, Manly BFJ, Machado AA, Vencovsky R2006 Statistical models in agriculture: biometrical methods for evaluating phenotypic stability in plant breeding. Cerne 12:373-388).

In the present study, cultivars 6266RSF, NS6990, GD19I435, GD19I439, GD19C443, RC0496 and IA18661 were classified in Toler’s group C, with β i values that did not statistically differ from 1.0; that is, their performance followed the environmental average. According to Rosse and Vencovsky (2000Rosse LN, Vencovsky R2000 Modelo de regressão não linear aplicado ao estudo da estabilidade fenotípica de genótipos de feijão no Estado de São Paulo. Bragantia 59:99-107), this pattern indicates good adjustment of the model to the dataset, which means high predictability. Other authors (Prado et al. 2001Prado EE, Hiromoto DM, Godinho VPC2001 Adaptabilidade e estabilidade de cultivares de soja em cinco épocas de plantio no cerrado de Rondônia. Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira Brasília 36:625-635, Pacheco et al. 2003Pacheco RM, Duart JB, Assunção MS, Nunes Junior J, Chaves AAP2003 Zoneamento e adaptação produtiva de genótipos de soja de ciclo médio de maturação para Goiás. Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira Brasília 33:23-27, Pacheco et al. 2005Pacheco RM, Duarte JB, Vencovsky R, Pinheiro JB, Oliveira AB2005 Use of supplementary genotypes in AMMI analysis. Theoretical Applied Genetics 110:812-818, Cotes et al. 2006Cotes JM, Crossa J, Sanches A, Cornelius PL2006 A Bayesian approach for assessing the stability of genotypes. Crop Science 46:2654-2665, Couto et al. 2015Couto MF, Nascimento M, Amaral AT, Silva FF, Viana AP, Vivas M2015 Eberhart and Russel Bayesian method in the selection of popcorn cultivars. Crop Science 55:571-577) also verified this, reporting that genotypes in this group consistently yield within the expected average and show little variability even when cultivated in distinct environments, exhibiting high phenotypic stability and overall adaptability. Among the aforementioned genotypes, cultivar GD19I439 was found to have the highest expected average yield (4298.82 kg ha-1). In this study, most of the genotypes that presented pattern C also presented high stability, with σ 2 di values that were not significant (Couto et al. 2015, Nascimento et al. 2020Nascimento M, Nascimento ACC, Silva FF, Teodoro PE, Azevedo CF, Oliveira TRA, Carvalho L2020 Bayesian segmented regression model for adaptability and stability evaluation of cotton genotypes. Euphytica 216:2), particularly cultivars 6266RSF, GD19I435, GD19C443, RC0496 and IA18661.

Cultivars NEO680, 68I69RSF, GD19I438, RC0495, RC0348, RC0349, SBC200381, RC5278, I10883, I17087 and SBI200135, even though they presented good stability in terms of σ 2 di, proved to be extremely responsive to unfavorable environments; thus, they were classified under Toler’s group E, with a doubly undesirable concave response pattern. A concave response pattern indicates a genotype with greater than desirable sensitivity in unfavorable environments and little response to environmental improvement under favorable conditions (Toler and Burrows 1998). These genotypes may be recommended for areas with limited technological access and suboptimal planting conditions, as they yield well in low-technology environments (Morais et al. 2008Morais LK, Moura MF, Vencovsky R, Pinheiro JB2008 Adaptabilidade e estabilidade fenotípica em soja avaliada pelo método de Toler. Bragantia 67:275-284, Peluzio et al. 2010Peluzio JM, Afferri FS, Monteiro FJF, Melo AV, Pimenta RS2010 Adaptability and stability of soybean cultivars under conditions of varzeas, in Tocantins State Brazil. Ciência Agronômica 41:427-434). However, cultivars NEO680, 68I69RSF, GD19I438, SBC200381 and SBI200135, despite presenting high expected average yields, cannot be recommended because of inconsistencies in their performance before accounting for environmental variations. All the other genotypes not previously mentioned in this section were also classified in group E, did not present good stability, and are not recommended for future evaluations.

CONCLUSIONS

The methodology described in this study was capable of differentiating the effect of the environment on soybean cultivars in terms of yield, allowing us to explore the response of each cultivar to environmental variations. Cultivars 6266RSF, NS6990, GD19I435, GD19I439, GD19C443, RC0496 and IA18661 presented good stability and overall adaptability, and are the most recommended for future evaluations. The other cultivars presented specific adaptability and high responsiveness to unfavorable environments; the higher-yielding of these may be recommended for future evaluations in low-technology environments.

AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIALS

The data generated and/or analyzed during the present study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS

All authors contributed to study design, preparation of materials, data collection, data analysis and writing of the manuscript.

REFERENCES

  • Bernardo Júnior LAY, Silva CP, Oliveira LA, Nuvunga JJ, Pires LPM, Von Pinho RG, Balestre M2018 AMMI Bayesian models to study stability and adaptability in maize. Agronomy Journal 110:1765-1776
  • Bradshaw AD1965 Evolutionary significance of phenotypic plasticity. Advances in Genetics 13:115-153
  • Cochran WG1954 The combination of estimates from different experiments. Biometrics 10:101-129
  • Cotes JM, Crossa J, Sanches A, Cornelius PL2006 A Bayesian approach for assessing the stability of genotypes. Crop Science 46:2654-2665
  • Couto MF, Nascimento M, Amaral AT, Silva FF, Viana AP, Vivas M2015 Eberhart and Russel Bayesian method in the selection of popcorn cultivars. Crop Science 55:571-577
  • Cruz CD, Torres RAA, Vencovsky R1989 An alternative approach to the stability analysis proposed by Silva e Barreto. Revista Brasileira de Genética 12:567-580
  • Duarte JB, Vencovsky R1999 Interação genótipos x ambientes: uma introdução à análise “AMMI”. Sociedade Brasileira de Genética, Ribeirão Preto, 60p
  • Eberhart AS, Russell WA1966 Stability parameters for comparing varieties. Crop Science 6:36-40
  • Ferreira DF, Demétri CGB, Manly BFJ, Machado AA, Vencovsky R2006 Statistical models in agriculture: biometrical methods for evaluating phenotypic stability in plant breeding. Cerne 12:373-388
  • Finlay KW, Wilkinson GN1963 The analysis of adaptation in a plant-breeding program. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 14:742-754
  • Gauch HG2006 Statistical analysis of yield trials by AMMI and GGE. Crop Science 46:1488-1500
  • Geweke J1992 Evaluating the accuracy of sampling-based approaches to the calculation of posterior moments. In Bernardo LM, Berger J, Dawid AP and Smith AFM (eds) Bayesian statistics. Oxford University Press, Oxford, p. 169-193
  • Hamawaki RL, Toshiyuki HO, Nogueira APO, Hamawaki CDL, Barbosa LDA2015 Adaptability and stability analysis of soybean genotypes using toler and centroid methods. American Journal of Plant Sciences 6:1509-1518
  • Jarquín D, Silva CL, Gaynor RC, Poland J, Fritz A, Howard R, Battenfield S, Crossa J2017 Increasing genomic-enabled prediction accuracy by modeling genotype environment interactions in Kansas wheat. Plant Gene 10:1-15
  • Lin CS, Binns MR1988 A superiority measure of cultivar performance for cultivar x location data. Canadian Journal of Plant Science 68:193-198
  • Matei G, Benin G, Woyann LG, Dalló SC, Milioli Milioli, AS AS, Zdziarski AD2017 Agronomic performance of modern soybean cultivars in multi-environment trials. Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira 52:500-511
  • Morais LK, Moura MF, Vencovsky R, Pinheiro JB2008 Adaptabilidade e estabilidade fenotípica em soja avaliada pelo método de Toler. Bragantia 67:275-284
  • Nascimento M, Ferreira A, Ferrão RG, Campana ACM, Bhering LL, Cruz CD, Ferrão MAG, Fonseca AFA2010 Adaptabilidade e estabilidade via regressão não paramétrica em genótipos de café. Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira 45:41-48
  • Nascimento M, Nascimento ACC, Silva FF, Teodoro PE, Azevedo CF, Oliveira TRA, Carvalho L2020 Bayesian segmented regression model for adaptability and stability evaluation of cotton genotypes. Euphytica 216:2
  • Oliveira LA, Silva CP, Nuvunga JJ, Silva AQ, Balestre M2016 Bayesian GGE biplot models applied to maize multi-environments trials. Genetics and Molecular Research 15:1-21
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Publication Dates

  • Publication in this collection
    29 May 2023
  • Date of issue
    2023

History

  • Received
    19 Nov 2022
  • Accepted
    07 Mar 2023
  • Published
    23 Mar 2023
Crop Breeding and Applied Biotechnology Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Departamento de Fitotecnia, 36570-000 Viçosa - Minas Gerais/Brasil, Tel.: (55 31)3899-2611, Fax: (55 31)3899-2611 - Viçosa - MG - Brazil
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