Strong El Niño reduces fruit production of Brazil-nut trees in the eastern Amazon

PASTANA, Dayane Nathália Barbosa; MODENA, Érica de Souza; WADT, Lúcia Helena de Oliveira; NEVES, Ezaquiel de Souza; MARTORANO, Lucieta Guerreiro; LIRA-GUEDES, Ana Cláudia; SOUZA, Rafael Lucas Figueiredo de; COSTA, Felipe Felix; BATISTA, Anderson Pedro Bernardina; GUEDES, Marcelino Carneiro

doi:10.1590/1809-4392202003702

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Environmental Sciences • Acta Amaz. 51 (3) • Jul-Sep 2021 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1809-4392202003702 copy

Strong El Niño reduces fruit production of Brazil-nut trees in the eastern Amazon

Forte El Niño reduz a produção de frutos de castanheiras na Amazônia Oriental

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

ABSTRACT

The Brazil-nut tree (Bertholletia excelsa) is native to the Amazon rainforest, and its fruit production varies naturally with climatic conditions. Our aim was to evaluate the temporal variation in Brazil-nut production associated with climatic variables, including the strong El Niño of 2015/2016. The study was carried out in two 9-ha permanent plots in the northeastern Brazilian Amazon from 2007 to 2018: one in forest (12-year monitoring) and the other in savannah/forest transition (eight years). Overall, we monitored fruit production of 205 trees with diameter at breast height ≥ 50 cm. Annual fruit production was related to temporal series (2005-2018) of climatic data (the Oceanic Niño Index; and precipitation and air temperature from two local meteorological stations). Average fruit production per tree in 2017 was eight times lower than in 2015 and two times lower than the general average for both sites, and was significantly associated to the El Niño of 2015/2016, that increased average maximum monthly temperature and reduced the precipitation in the region, extending the dry season from three to six months. Years with higher and lower fruit production per tree coincided in both sites. Annual fruit production was significantly and negatively correlated with thermal anomalies that occurred in the third semester prior to harvest monitoring. Years with higher production were related with predominance of neutrality or the La Niña phenomenon at the global scale, and higher rainfall at the local scale. The relationship of fruit production with climate was independent of the local habitat.

KEYWORDS:
Bertholletia excelsa; climate variability; Oceanic Niño Index (ONI); productivity

Correlation period	ONI (°C)		T max (°C)		Precipitation (mm)
1 DJF	0.05	p = 0.820	0.41	p = 0.069	-0.47	p = 0.067
1 NDJ	0.09	p = 0.707	0.53	p = 0.015	-0.45	p = 0.078
1 OND	0.10	p = 0.664	0.11	p = 0.639	-0.21	p = 0.429
1 SON	0.09	p = 0.691	-0.18	p = 0.440	0.22	p = 0.406
1 ASO	0.11	p = 0.647	-0.27	p = 0.250	0.22	p = 0.422
1 JAS	0.10	p = 0.674	-0.32	p = 0.169	0.35	p = 0.178
1 acc	-	-	-	-	-0.25	p = 0.348
1 average	-	-	0.15	p = 0.525	0.62	p = 0.010
2 JJA	0.07	p = 0.772	-0.42	p = 0.063	0.64	p = 0.003
2 MJJ	0.04	p = 0.860	-0.52	p = 0.019	0.33	p = 0.210
2 AMJ	-0.14	p = 0.566	-0.49	p = 0.028	0.07	p = 0.795
2 MAM	-0.40	p = 0.084	-0.59	p = 0.006	0.25	p = 0.350
2 FMA	-0.57	p = 0.009	-0.68	p = 0.001	0.19	p = 0.484
2 JFM	-0.61	p = 0.004	-0.76	p < 0.001	0.46	p = 0.072
2 acc	-	-	-	-	0.13	p = 0.624
2 average	-	-	-0.64	p = 0.002	0.04	p = 0.888
3 DJF	-0.61	p = 0.005	-0.71	p < 0.001	0.04	p = 0.895
3 NDJ	-0.60	p = 0.006	-0.66	p = 0.002	-0.04	p = 0.874
3 OND	-0.58	p = 0.008	-0.64	p = 0.002	0.37	p = 0.161
3 SON	-0.58	p = 0.007	-0.71	p < 0.001	0.40	p = 0.128
3 ASO	-0.61	p = 0.004	-0.62	p = 0.004	0.18	p = 0.514
3 JAS	-0.62	p = 0.004	-0.59	p = 0.006	0.04	p = 0.870
3 acc	-	-	-	-	0.01	p = 0.974
3 average	-	-	-0.77	p < 0.001	0.36	p = 0.175
4 JJA	-0.64	p = 0.002	-0.29	p = 0.207	0.46	p = 0.073
4 MJJ	-0.56	p = 0.010	0.04	p = 0.855	0.18	p = 0.503
4 AMJ	-0.25	p = 0.282	0.26	p = 0.270	-0.23	p = 0.392
4 MAM	0.05	p = 0.818	0.30	p = 0.198	0.22	p = 0.412
4 FMA	0.26	p = 0.269	0.26	p = 0.262	-0.25	p = 0.348
4 JFM	0.31	p = 0.185	0.22	p = 0.351	0.46	p = 0.072
4 acc	-	-	-	-	0.18	p = 0.514
4 average	-	-	0.16	p = 0.491	0.22	p = 0.412

ID	DBH (cm)	STATUS	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Forest plot
1	50.00	P	3	24	29	0	16	11	1	22	46	8	7	5
2	52.55	P	0	0	0	217	124	266	27	50	26	37	22	17
3	52.87	P	0	7	18	0	28	14	12	28	55	54	3	46
4	58.28	P	0	3	9	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0	0
5	68.47	P	9	34	34	0	7	12	34	16	0	0	6	54
6	71.66	P	98	97	107	33	34	199	4	100	85	26	26	174
7	74.52	P	248	190	200	134	144	209	93	0	211	132	174	127
8	75.80	P	107	189	200	66	140	140	70	100	177	101	31	80
9	76.43	P	132	14	14	0	0	35	5	50	37	52	8	50
10	81.21	P	0	37	40	71	52	66	38	50	57	71	22	41
11	81.53	P	146	138	157	152	75	129	80	150	184	144	89	198
12	81.53	P	50	54	56	98	79	81	93	75	145	137	33	105
13	81.85	P	133	46	60	0	59	159	41	200	171	115	15	114
14	81.85	P	36	4	19	5	0	0	7	0	7	0	2	0
15	83.12	P	156	130	196	68	120	307	28	200	156	88	65	153
16	85.99	P	107	134	137	150	83	170	115	100	233	134	89	166
17	88.85	P	0	52	52	49	30	35	41	25	109	103	41	110
18	91.40	P	0	41	46	7	5	43	7	18	35	12	10	19
19	94.27	P	5	1	9	7	19	27	9	0	20	24	2	3
20	94.90	P	0	115	134	122	220	0	142	0	158	227	56	360
21	95.54	P	72	38	41	63	0	38	14	9	188	25	35	94
22	95.54	P	27	20	27	18	22	53	67	0	11	43	1	14
23	97.13	P	0	17	22	0	33	71	39	75	70	49	9	26
24	97.13	P	115	74	96	68	80	201	84	150	277	53	42	137
25	97.77	P	171	156	175	205	186	112	49	200	315	88	80	175
26	98.73	P	347	229	236	59	155	234	38	250	223	111	64	230
27	98.73	P	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	39	28	0	0
28	98.73	P	155	121	146	124	50	172	43	75	149	59	53	115
29	99.36	P	0	146	161	58	0	112	31	200	559	33	48	93
30	99.68	P	8	109	110	47	74	70	34	150	104	58	4	31
31	101.91	P	174	90	126	71	64	238	28	150	142	92	50	210
32	101.91	P	97	105	117	48	27	141	4	150	229	56	27	111
33	103.50	P	0	0	0	0	46	0	18	0	0	0	16	0
34	104.46	P	41	45	53	14	0	14	5	50	106	12	2	46
35	105.10	P	200	63	63	247	128	156	69	200	150	113	65	46
36	105.73	P	0	115	134	121	127	0	115	0	134	187	95	20
37	107.64	P	160	68	81	153	192	201	96	225	192	140	60	161
38	109.87	P	46	41	43	31	0	45	98	50	53	53	26	79
39	110.51	P	106	88	88	50	31	112	80	100	160	52	64	164
40	111.46	P	49	30	61	41	33	103	28	50	68	48	10	39
41	112.10	P	56	25	47	39	0	6	32	50	22	44	34	0
42	112.10	P	133	112	119	74	34	265	13	150	136	44	41	117
43	114.65	P	13	22	22	30	12	20	61	2	37	25	11	16
44	121.02	P	402	51	68	48	71	105	35	2	190	62	24	87
45	124.52	P	51	131	158	58	128	330	18	6	7	97	78	43
46	125.16	P	619	478	516	162	241	681	142	400	506	285	271	375
47	136.31	P	137	106	114	73	64	71	24	100	200	41	13	97
48	136.31	P	219	190	190	156	192	131	12	150	331	223	78	120
49	136.94	P	26	4	9	1	4	58	5	0	53	17	3	9
50	137.26	P	164	94	102	13	232	287	161	150	300	148	53	30
51	138.54	P	148	86	122	173	115	215	100	200	152	107	86	146
52	138.54	P	212	141	193	454	154	334	240	200	349	191	78	98
53	140.13	P	198	187	221	217	141	266	71	150	295	140	35	137
54	140.13	P	48	57	58	30	12	72	53	50	54	82	36	28
55	140.76	P	0	79	220	211	40	285	182	200	315	297	88	123
56	140.76	P	169	138	154	237	147	104	250	100	176	172	68	50
57	142.36	P	33	23	45	17	7	61	13	20	55	21	4	19
58	143.31	P	0	7	20	114	100	306	42	250	323	127	11	253
59	144.90	P	48	35	37	28	27	55	49	50	66	69	19	33
60	146.18	P	151	75	77	53	14	193	9	22	197	50	23	31
61	146.82	P	20	45	53	202	33	102	70	50	155	40	19	61
62	152.87	P	202	25	83	237	110	243	113	200	161	79	41	75
63	152.87	P	282	79	179	162	194	267	84	250	113	229	96	60
64	161.15	P	295	268	270	173	171	285	36	250	165	176	12	152
65	162.10	P	135	90	110	143	157	298	126	100	265	62	99	128
66	165.61	P	122	112	116	95	110	94	30	150	34	201	16	118
67	165.61	P	181	213	226	113	20	193	69	100	316	55	20	174
68	165.92	P	112	14	138	37	87	193	16	16	66	24	26	39
69	166.24	P	363	110	316	110	192	204	24	100	489	74	19	15
70	172.61	P	211	172	210	47	81	278	42	150	286	103	38	199
71	175.16	P	98	47	48	103	105	257	24	50	193	46	6	48
72	177.39	P	0	0	0	0	0	0	149	0	417	181	28	116
73	178.34	P	1027	788	879	191	292	935	61	950	600	148	124	661
74	183.44	P	96	17	54	19	22	60	28	14	66	12	6	23
75	202.55	P	293	142	331	263	207	483	44	250	0	129	76	158
76	226.75	P	213	224	225	458	153	300	190	250	376	264	79	83
77	247.13	P	83	10	17	200	22	89	23	0	18	0	2	0
78	280.25	P	210	295	295	358	114	321	47	150	296	111	79	74
Forest/savannah-transition plot
1	51.57	P	-	-	-	67	71	-	45	237	155	143	0	204
2	55.70	P	-	-	-	0	0	-	4	31	31	4	0	2
3	57.30	P	-	-	-	0	0	-	10	0	5	25	0	70
4	62.07	P	-	-	-	0	9	-	4	13	15	36	0	30
5	63.03	P	-	-	-	2	12	-	7	12	79	26	0	24
6	63.66	P	-	-	-	21	8	-	54	21	125	33	1	107
7	64.62	P	-	-	-	32	16	-	4	55	74	28	2	16
8	65.89	P	-	-	-	12	28	-	26	45	170	19	0	41
9	66.84	P	-	-	-	149	183	-	98	301	321	182	1	46
10	67.48	P	-	-	-	73	75	-	70	103	216	138	0	223
11	68.12	P	-	-	-	16	38	-	4	67	23	88	0	1
12	71.62	P	-	-	-	0	17	-	0	6	27	8	0	17
13	72.57	P	-	-	-	0	0	-	8	9	32	10	0	0
14	76.39	P	-	-	-	110	132	-	183	321	254	190	11	394
15	76.39	P	-	-	-	15	0	-	6	0	78	2	0	71
16	77.03	P	-	-	-	11	0	-	19	31	96	31	0	153
17	78.94	NP	-	-	-	0	0	-	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	79.58	P	-	-	-	19	23	-	56	97	85	27	16	243
19	81.81	P	-	-	-	0	0	-	0	8	55	7	0	0
20	82.76	P	-	-	-	77	15	-	36	148	69	87	0	231
21	83.72	P	-	-	-	17	0	-	4	57	156	70	30	37
22	84.03	P	-	-	-	9	0	-	0	0	48	19	4	0
23	85.94	P	-	-	-	57	15	-	17	26	161	19	0	2
24	86.58	P	-	-	-	19	6	-	62	88	45	19	2	150
25	86.58	P	-	-	-	0	39	-	13	60	43	4	0	7
26	87.85	P	-	-	-	14	0	-	22	69	72	78	2	287
27	89.13	P	-	-	-	70	37	-	109	99	15	107	1	15
28	92.31	P	-	-	-	3	3	-	20	48	56	48	0	172
29	92.31	P	-	-	-	45	121	-	47	140	94	154	7	227
30	93.58	NP	-	-	-	0	0	-	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	93.90	P	-	-	-	46	77	-	0	96	260	32	3	136
32	97.40	P	-	-	-	50	45	-	19	53	27	27	1	69
33	97.72	P	-	-	-	62	55	-	133	79	160	137	11	201
34	98.68	P	-	-	-	54	86	-	107	137	207	27	5	138
35	98.68	P	-	-	-	21	42	-	14	27	45	62	2	207
36	102.81	P	-	-	-	14	14	-	3	3	19	8	0	39
37	104.09	P	-	-	-	0	0	-	0	0	9	0	0	4
38	104.09	P	-	-	-	43	2	-	105	52	57	17	1	5
39	105.04	P	-	-	-	218	64	-	194	158	145	327	1	568
40	105.68	P	-	-	-	54	39	-	8	44	71	31	2	93
41	106.00	P	-	-	-	106	13	-	32	114	18	95	0	160
42	106.63	P	-	-	-	1	0	-	4	27	16	36	1	25
43	107.59	P	-	-	-	2	6	-	1	10	72	5	0	0
44	110.13	P	-	-	-	62	24	-	0	40	55	13	0	50
45	111.41	P	-	-	-	14	21	-	0	50	30	79	0	0
46	111.41	P	-	-	-	139	5	-	26	246	130	286	10	1
47	112.68	P	-	-	-	23	31	-	78	11	92	76	0	23
48	113.00	P	-	-	-	5	3	-	7	0	63	7	3	40
49	113.64	P	-	-	-	39	300	-	260	543	294	285	0	361
50	113.95	P	-	-	-	11	39	-	18	43	130	14	0	175
51	114.59	P	-	-	-	4	10	-	60	10	28	28	1	0
52	114.59	P	-	-	-	65	4	-	172	6	6	43	1	191
53	114.91	P	-	-	-	64	102	-	39	171	186	56	1	174
54	116.18	P	-	-	-	0	2	-	0	10	63	35	0	0
55	116.18	P	-	-	-	13	0	-	81	13	26	7	0	5
56	117.14	P	-	-	-	15	86	-	72	145	218	146	5	128
57	118.41	P	-	-	-	148	70	-	174	273	93	305	0	0
58	119.05	P	-	-	-	89	9	-	4	109	64	247	0	2
59	119.05	P	-	-	-	25	99	-	149	166	87	55	0	196
60	120.32	P	-	-	-	17	33	-	38	30	66	75	1	154
61	121.59	P	-	-	-	0	4	-	4	6	39	11	0	0
62	121.91	P	-	-	-	84	33	-	32	91	70	28	0	197
63	122.55	P	-	-	-	0	21	-	12	4	96	32	0	28
64	124.14	P	-	-	-	36	2	-	22	51	2	56	1	2
65	124.14	P	-	-	-	45	1	-	0	19	41	71	1	0
66	124.14	P	-	-	-	4	25	-	1	64	108	43	0	30
67	124.78	P	-	-	-	0	0	-	0	0	0	0	0	7
68	124.78	P	-	-	-	79	195	-	87	123	268	98	5	294
69	125.10	P	-	-	-	84	30	-	6	32	175	125	0	347
70	126.37	P	-	-	-	156	328	-	193	548	185	694	0	471
71	126.69	P	-	-	-	7	60	-	38	27	30	21	2	66
72	127.32	P	-	-	-	11	4	-	0	39	87	10	0	89
73	127.32	P	-	-	-	9	1	-	4	6	13	0	0	1
74	127.32	P	-	-	-	24	0	-	49	171	90	97	0	0
75	128.28	P	-	-	-	1	60	-	30	33	69	13	2	48
76	128.92	P	-	-	-	18	50	-	9	12	63	15	0	30
77	131.14	P	-	-	-	27	4	-	9	55	42	26	2	75
78	131.14	P	-	-	-	42	21	-	6	40	63	130	0	156
79	132.10	P	-	-	-	41	11	-	256	28	67	20	13	92
80	132.10	P	-	-	-	68	134	-	115	236	110	76	7	117
81	132.73	P	-	-	-	9	5	-	26	16	56	2	0	7
82	133.69	P	-	-	-	23	21	-	28	8	22	4	0	12
83	135.28	P	-	-	-	3	0	-	7	6	33	14	0	6
84	135.92	P	-	-	-	0	41	-	0	32	128	21	5	121
85	136.87	P	-	-	-	16	2	-	2	6	6	54	0	9
86	137.83	P	-	-	-	134	54	-	157	176	345	79	13	350
87	138.15	P	-	-	-	35	77	-	4	40	293	14	0	25
88	138.46	P	-	-	-	17	26	-	1	39	102	27	0	122
89	140.06	P	-	-	-	131	62	-	185	154	302	337	0	360
90	140.06	P	-	-	-	6	6	-	13	26	70	35	0	45
91	140.37	P	-	-	-	19	10	-	0	11	88	10	0	82
92	143.24	P	-	-	-	24	11	-	7	17	79	63	0	0
93	143.24	P	-	-	-	23	0	-	2	11	20	1	0	18
94	143.24	P	-	-	-	7	38	-	22	26	80	32	0	57
95	143.88	P	-	-	-	10	47	-	24	74	119	53	8	134
96	148.01	P	-	-	-	4	15	-	45	60	221	27	0	112
97	148.01	P	-	-	-	27	10	-	26	31	210	12	0	65
98	149.61	P	-	-	-	24	13	-	28	77	91	46	1	86
99	149.61	P	-	-	-	0	0	-	0	8	13	15	0	0
100	149.61	P	-	-	-	10	3	-	19	27	85	68	0	41
101	151.20	P	-	-	-	10	11	-	45	46	78	4	0	29
102	152.79	P	-	-	-	28	3	-	9	19	0	60	0	16
103	152.79	P	-	-	-	18	0	-	12	6	174	37	1	145
104	154.38	P	-	-	-	97	33	-	56	57	84	127	0	36
105	154.38	P	-	-	-	18	10	-	1	44	30	27	0	13
106	154.38	P	-	-	-	183	186	-	159	262	235	183	116	315
107	155.33	P	-	-	-	24	6	-	129	19	50	26	0	129
108	155.97	P	-	-	-	2	20	-	22	23	82	15	0	59
109	159.15	P	-	-	-	7	0	-	0	0	0	0	0	0
110	159.15	P	-	-	-	53	8	-	33	13	22	32	0	41
111	159.15	P	-	-	-	22	21	-	14	22	56	50	4	42
112	159.15	P	-	-	-	0	0	-	0	0	24	15	0	44
113	161.06	P	-	-	-	0	2	-	21	3	62	6	0	3
114	163.61	P	-	-	-	52	114	-	129	13	124	263	1	178
115	164.25	P	-	-	-	49	61	-	8	67	94	20	0	67
116	167.75	P	-	-	-	35	0	-	0	0	33	88	2	0
117	169.34	P	-	-	-	30	81	-	7	118	238	81	0	208
118	170.61	P	-	-	-	49	31	-	7	40	65	40	2	121
119	171.89	P	-	-	-	8	6	-	6	93	9	80	0	0
120	171.89	P	-	-	-	131	36	-	18	49	125	47	1	42
121	175.07	P	-	-	-	7	7	-	2	14	96	6	0	2
122	181.44	P	-	-	-	18	14	-	15	12	56	32	0	68
123	183.98	P	-	-	-	5	2	-	28	41	9	32	0	17
124	189.39	P	-	-	-	9	26	-	8	0	34	7	0	14
125	203.72	P	-	-	-	11	66	-	6	67	31	88	0	242
126	211.68	P	-	-	-	6	5	-	4	13	82	8	0	177
127	222.82	P	-	-	-	16	18	-	30	33	92	42	0	48

Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia Av. André Araujo, 2936 Aleixo, 69060-001 Manaus AM Brasil, Tel.: +55 92 3643-3030, Fax: +55 92 643-3223 - Manaus - AM - Brazil
E-mail: acta@inpa.gov.br

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[1] ^*Corresponding author: dayanepastanaa@gmail.com