Exposure To Climate Risk: A Case Study For Coffee Farming In The Region Of Alta Mogiana, São Paulo

TORRES, GUILHERME A.L.; ZEZZO, LARISSA V.; JOSÉ, RAFAEL V. DE SÃO; GRECO, ROBERTO; COLTRI, PRISCILA P.

doi:10.1590/0001-3765202220211379

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ECOSYSTEMS • An. Acad. Bras. Ciênc. 94 (suppl 4) • 2022 • https://doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765202220211379 linkcopy

Exposure To Climate Risk: A Case Study For Coffee Farming In The Region Of Alta Mogiana, São Paulo

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

Studies around the world show an increase in global average temperatures, with a consequent increase in extreme events and changes in the distribution of precipitation, causing a decrease in agricultural production and changes in planting areas. This study analyzed the exposure to climate risk that the coffee crop in the region of Alta Mogiana/SP, Brazil has been presenting in the past thirty years (1991-2021). Time series of daily data of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation were used. By the statistical tests we observed a trend of increase in maximum temperatures daily of approximately 1.4°C and minimum daily of 0.8°C in the municipalities of the region and a trend towards a decrease in precipitation of 0.9 mm daily, indicating greater exposure of the coffee crop in the region to climate risk and increased vulnerability for the coffee producer. In view of these analyses, a literature review was carried out, suggesting agroforestry systems and mechanical irrigation as the most promising strategies to manage climate risk in coffee plantations. In addition, drought-resistant cultivars, training courses for farmers, increased rural insurance, and nutritional control of the plants can also be considered efficient options for climate exposure in coffee plantations from Alta Mogiana.

Key words
Agriculture; climate change; climate risk management; coffee tree; Mann-Kendall

Municipalities	Group	Kendall’s Tau	Interpretation	Temperature before the break year (°C)	Break year	Temperature after the break year (°C)
Altinópolis, Cajuru, and Santo Antônio da Alegria	1	0.111	Rejects H0 (there is a positive trend)	27.7	2013	29.0
Batatais, Nuporanga, and São José da Bela Vista	2	0.100	Rejects H0 (there is a positive trend)	28.5	2013	29.7
Buritizal, Jeriquara, and Ribeirão Corrente	3	0.107	Rejects H0 (there is a positive trend)	28.1	2013	29.3
Cristais Paulista	4	0.111	Rejects H0 (there is a positive trend)	26.9	2012	28.1
Franca, Itirapuã, Patrocínio Paulista, and Restinga	5	0.109	Rejects H0 (there is a positive trend)	27.4	2013	28.7
Pedregulho	6	0.106	Rejects H0 (there is a positive trend)	24.8	2012	26.2

Municipalities	Group	Kendall’s Tau	Interpretation	Temperature before the break year (°C)	Break year	Temperature after the break year (°C)
Altinópolis, Cajuru, and Santo Antônio da Alegria	1	0.061	Rejects H0 (there is a positive trend)	16.3	2012	17.0
Batatais, Nuporanga, and São José da Bela Vista	2	0.061	Rejects H0 (there is a positive trend)	17.2	2012	17.9
Buritizal, Jeriquara, and Ribeirão Corrente	3	0.062	Rejects H0 (there is a positive trend)	17.2	2012	18.0
Cristais Paulista	4	0.062	Rejects H0 (thereis a positive trend)	16.3	2012	17.0
Franca, Itirapuã, Patrocínio Paulista, and Restinga	5	0.063	Rejects H0 (there is a positive trend)	16.5	2012	17.3
Pedregulho	6	0.039	Rejects H0 (there is a positive trend)	14.1	2012	14.7

Municipalities	Group	Kendall’s Tau	Interpretation	Precipitation before the break year (mm)	Break year	Precipitation after the break year (mm)
Altinópolis, Cajuru, and Santo Antônio da Alegria	1	$-$ 0.048	Rejects H0 (there is a negative trend)	4.1	2005	3.3
Batatais, Nuporanga, and São José da Bela Vista	2	$-$ 0.043	Rejects H0 (there is a negative trend)	4.2	2007	3.3
Buritizal, Jeriquara, and Ribeirão Corrente	3	$-$ 0.045	Rejects H0 (there is a negative trend)	4.3	2007	3.5
Cristais Paulista	4	$-$ 0.058	Rejects H0 (there is a negative trend)	4.3	2007	3.5
Franca, Itirapuã, Patrocínio Paulista, and Restinga	5	$-$ 0.053	Rejects H0 (there is a negative trend)	4.2	2007	3.4
Pedregulho	6	$-$ 0.080	Rejects H0 (there is a negative trend)	4.4	2004	3.6

Authors and year	Country where the study was carried out	Main topic addressed	Main conclusions
Hernandes et al. 2004	Brazil	Analysis of solar radiation indices in an agroforestry system	Agroforestry systems can provide thermal comfort to coffee plantations, in addition to increasing production and fruit size.
Sasaki et al. 2013	Brazil	Efficiency of electrostatic spraying on coffee plantations.	Savings in the use of agrochemicals by electrostatic spraying (37% efficiency) can provide a financial margin for investing in climate risk management initiatives.
Gonçalves et al. 2021	Brazil	Carbon sequestration in agroforestry systems	Agroforestry systems have a high potential for carbon sequestration, also contributing to climate change mitigation.
Lopes et al. 2021	Brazil	Smart irrigation	Feasibility of the project on Smart Irrigation of coffee plantations using smartphones for monitoring, contributing to water control in the plantation.
Tavares et al. 2018	Brazil	Consequences of climate change for coffee growing in Brazil	Use of heat and drought-resistant cultivars combined with innovative agricultural practices can minimize the impacts of climate change.
De Leijster et al. 2021	Colombia	Ecosystem services	Agroforestry systems are great enablers of long-term ecosystem services, contributing to environmental preservation.
Koh et al. 2020	Brazil	Climate risk for coffee production in Brazil	Diversification of production/income of the property and expansion of rural climate insurance, protecting the coffee producer from extreme weather events.
Ramírez-Builes & Küsters 2021	Colombia	Plant nutritional control	Nutrition with calcium and potassium showed an increase in plant nutrition. The plant presented greater resilience to biotic (pests) and abiotic (environment/climate) factors.
Tran et al. 2021	Vietnam	Efficiency of irrigation systems	Irrigation systems are more efficient when accompanied by public policies for rural credit and labor qualification. The technique is promising for locations with changes in the standard precipitation distribution.
Varona & Zayas 2016	Cuba	Analysis of the best cost-benefit in coffee irrigation	Irrigation of 52% of the area every 5 days presented the best cost-benefit. The efficient use of water contributes to lower production costs, making room for investments in climate risk management initiatives.
López-Sampson et al. 2020	Nicaragua	Effects of shading on coffee plantation	Agroforestry systems have shown significant benefits to coffee plantations, such as protection from high temperatures that can be a consequence of heat waves.
George et al. 2009	Australia	Results of applying a course focused on climate education for farmers.	The application of courses aimed at climate education for farmers increases their understanding of the subject.
Lin 2006	Mexico	Analysis of indicators of agroforestry systems against climatic events	Agroforestry systems have great potential to reduce the impacts of extreme temperatures on coffee plantations.

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