Relationship Between Extreme Rainfall Occurrences and Galactic Cosmic Rays over Natal/RN, Brazil: A Case Study

Abstract

The increase in Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) flux intensity induces the Condensation Nuclei (CN) production, which intensifies rainfall occurrences. Then, the objective of this study was to analyze the rainfall distribution in the NEB and the impact of GCR flux on extreme rainfall events occurred in July 1998 in Natal/RN, Brazil. We used historical rainfall, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and GCR flux data for Natal/RN. We used R software for statistical analysis. The results indicate that the GCR flux is important for intensifying extremes rainfall occurrences. This fact is observed when analyzing the relationship between rainfall greater than 10 mm and GCR flux above 6,390 counts/min. Pearson correlation coefficient between rainfall and GCR flux was 0.94 (p-value = 0.0005) and SST was -0.76 (p-value = 0.0263), both statistically significant. The rate between GCR flux and rainfall was +2.87 mm/count/min, while the rate between SST and rainfall was -7.91 mm/°C. The variance proportion explained by regression was 94.41%, with relative importance degree corresponding to 62.0% for GCR flux and 32.4% for SST, respectively. The results show that GCR flux had a greater contribution to extreme rainfall occurrence in the metropolitan region of Natal/RN and it is important in climatological studies.

Key words
Modeling; climatic extreme; flood; storm