Construction duration predictive model based on factorial analysis and fuzzy logic

Modelo de predição da duração do prazo de obras com base na análise fatorial e lógica Fuzzy

Luiz Maurício Furtado Maués José Alberto Silva de Sá Carlos Tavares da Costa Junior Andrea Parise Kern André Augusto Azevedo Montenegro Duarte About the authors

Abstract

Setting the building construction duration for vertical residential works is made still in the study phase of economic and financial feasibility of the project and, in most cases, in an empirical way, increasing the uncertainties and the risks to fulfill the set deadline. However, there are computational intelligence tools that can contribute to reduce the degree of uncertainty. This study aimed to investigate the use of a hybrid system to estimate the deadline for vertical residential building works from design and production characteristics using factorial analysis and Fuzzy Systems. To this end, we used information of a database from the SEURB and in some buildings construction companies in Belém, a city located in the State of Pará, northern of Brazil. For the training and construction of the Fuzzy Forecast Model, data from 71 projects were used and 16 others residential buildings were used for its validation. The results showed a significant level of assertiveness, with 75% accuracy considering a range, whose upper and lower limits were calculated from MAPE and MASE. The model presented a prediction performance superior to other models already consecrated in the literature.

Keywords:
Fuzzy modeling systems; Fuzzy systems; Building construction; Deadline

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