Estudo sôbre as temperaturas médias em Campinas

Resumo

This paper deals with the study by orthogonal polynomials of trends in the mean annual and mean monthly temperatures (in degrees Centigrade) in Campinas (State of São Paulo, Brasil), from 1890 up to 1956. Only 4 months were studied (January, April, July and October) taken as typical of their respective season. For the annual averages both linear and quadratic components were significant, the regression equation being y = 19.95 - 0.0219 x + 0.00057 x², where y is the temperature (in degrees Centigrade) and x is the number of years after 1889. Thus 1890 corresponds to x = 1, 1891, to x = 2, etc. The equation shows a minimum for the year 1908, with a calculated mean y = 19.74. The expected means by the regression equation are given below. Anual temperature means for Campinas (SP, Brasil) calculated by the regression equation Year Annual mean (Degrees Centigrade) 1890 19.93 1900 10.78 1908 19.74 (minimum) 1010 19.75 1920 19.82 1930 20.01 1940 20.32 1950 20.74 1956 21.05 The mean for 67 years was 20.08°C with standard error of the mean 0.08°G. For January the regression equation was y = 23.08 - 0.0661 x + 0.00122 x², with a minimum of 22.19°C for 1916. The average for 67 years was 22.70°C, with standard error 0.12°C. For April no component of regression was significant. The average was 20.42°C, with standard error 0.13°C. For July the regression equation was of first degree, y = 16.01 + 0.0140X. The average for 67 years was 16.49°C, with standard error of the mean 0.14°C. Finally, for October the regression equation was y = 20.55 - 0.0362x + 0.00078x², with a minimum of 20.13°C for 1912. The average was 20.52°C, with standard error of the mean equal to 0.14°C.

^IInstituto Agronômico do Estado, em Campinas

^IIE. S. A. "Luiz de Queiroz"

ABSTRACT

This paper deals with the study by orthogonal polynomials of trends in the mean annual and mean monthly temperatures (in degrees Centigrade) in Campinas (State of São Paulo, Brasil), from 1890 up to 1956.

Only 4 months were studied (January, April, July and October) taken as typical of their respective season.

For the annual averages both linear and quadratic components were significant, the regression equation being

y = 19.95 - 0.0219 x + 0.00057 x²,

where y is the temperature (in degrees Centigrade) and x is the number of years after 1889. Thus 1890 corresponds to x = 1, 1891, to x = 2, etc.

The equation shows a minimum for the year 1908, with a calculated mean y = 19.74. The expected means by the regression equation are given below.

Anual temperature means for Campinas (SP, Brasil) calculated by the regression equation

Year Annual mean (Degrees Centigrade)

1890 19.93

1900 10.78

1908 19.74 (minimum)

1010 19.75

1920 19.82

1930 20.01

1940 20.32

1950 20.74

1956 21.05

The mean for 67 years was 20.08°C with standard error of the mean 0.08°G.

For January the regression equation was

y = 23.08 - 0.0661 x + 0.00122 x²,

with a minimum of 22.19°C for 1916. The average for 67 years was 22.70°C, with standard error 0.12°C.

For April no component of regression was significant. The average was 20.42°C, with standard error 0.13°C.

For July the regression equation was of first degree,

y = 16.01 + 0.0140X.

The average for 67 years was 16.49°C, with standard error of the mean 0.14°C.

Finally, for October the regression equation was

y = 20.55 - 0.0362x + 0.00078x²,

with a minimum of 20.13°C for 1912.

The average was 20.52°C, with standard error of the mean equal to 0.14°C.

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Estudo sôbre as temperaturas médias em Campinas

Hernani Godoy^I; Izaias R. Nogueira^II; Frederico Pimentel Gomes^II

Datas de Publicação

• Publicação nesta coleção
  11 Set 2012
• Data do Fascículo
  1959