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Original Article • Ambient. soc. 21 • 2018 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1809-4422asoc0157r3vu18L1AO copiar

FLOODS AND SOCIAL VULNERABILITY: STUDY ON THE XINGU RIVER IN ALTAMIRA / PA

Autoría SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Resumen

El objetivo de esta investigación fue clasificar la vulnerabilidad social en Altamira-PA, considerando la ocurrencia de las inundaciones estacionales y el escenario futuro de estabilización del nivel de agua en la cuota de inundaciones. Para determinar el Índice de Vulnerabilidad Social se utilizaron datos de cuota proporcionados por ANA y variables socioeconómicas del IBGE. Los resultados indican una vulnerabilidad de moderada a baja, que no refleja el entorno socio - espacial de la zona, que se repite la superación de nivel de alerta 6 metros durante la inundación del río Xingu. La planta hidroeléctrica de Belo Monte regulará para mantener el nivel de las inundaciones, lo que implica la demanda de planificación urbana que reduce los pasivos generados por tanto el mantenimiento de las zonas húmedas, como la amplia reorganización de las personas, y por estudios de evaluación de la influencia y los efectos de eventos extremos en la región.

Palabras Clave:
Eventos extremos; Inundación; Belo Monte.

Municipalities	2009	2014	2020	2025	2030
Altamira	98.750	128.846	123.958	128.996	134.239
Anapu	20.421	25.753	25.194	26.218	27.284
Brasil Novo	19.754	24.519	24.177	25.159	26.182
Medicilândia	23.682	25.222	26.921	28.015	29.154
Pacajá	41.953	44.681	47.691	49.629	51.647
Placas	19.592	20.866	22.272	23.177	24.119
Porto de Moz	28.091	29.918	31.933	33.231	34.582
Senador José Porfírio	14.434	18.102	17.758	18.480	19.231
Uruará	59.881	63.775	68.071	70.838	73.717
Vitória Xingu	9.664	43.207	26.817	27.907	29.041
Total	336.222	424.889	414.791	431.650	449.195

ANPPAS - Revista Ambiente e Sociedade Anppas / Revista Ambiente e Sociedade - São Paulo - SP - Brazil
E-mail: revistaambienteesociedade@gmail.com

Acompanhe os números deste periódico no seu leitor de RSS

[TFN1] Source: PARÁ (2010).

(a) Variables used for the construction of the Social Vulnerability Index.
Variables	Acronym	Definition	Importance
Total population	PT	Proportion (%) of the total population of the State that corresponds to the population of the municipality.	The decision to locate populations in areas susceptible to threats increases the vulnerability of society (KATAYAMA, 1993).
Children population	PIN	Proportion (%) of the total population corresponding to children between 0 and 4 years.	Children are usually among the first victims in periods of disaster because of their high dependency on the family. The effects of disasters range from physical (e.g. loss of life and injury) to psychological panic and the uncertainties associated with evacuation (UNDRO, 1992).
Old population	PID	Proportion (%) of the total population, corresponding to people over 60 years.	Older people suffer when their homes must be evacuated and present difficult to recover from the loss of their belongings and other economies (QUARENTELLI, 1994).
Level of Education	E	Proportion (%) of the total population, which has less than 4 years of study.	People who have not yet completed the first stage of elementary education in Brazil, the old primary course of four years, called the first cycle of elementary education and regulated by the Law of and bases of Education in 1996.
Level of Poverty	P	Proportion (%) of population, corresponding to heads of households with incomes less than two minimum salary.	Poverty is closely related to social marginalization and lack of access to resources, making this population group the main target of the impacts of disasters and climate change (SZLAFSZTEIN, 1995).
(b) Classification of vulnerability according to the grouping of social variables.
Vulnerability	Classification	Total population	Children population	Old population	Level of education	Level of poverty
Low	1	Until 10%	Until 10%	Until 10%	Until 30%	Until 30%
Moderate	2	10% to 20%	10% to 20%	10% to 20%	30% to 50%	30% to 50%
High	3	Greater than 20%	Greater than 20%	Greater than 20%	Greater than 50%	Greater than 50%
(c) Classification of vulnerability according to its degree of social vulnerability.
Classification Vulnerability		Calculated Value of IVS			Final IVS
Low		Between 1 e 1,7			1
Moderate		Between 1,8 e 2,3			2
High		Between 2,4 e 3			3

(a) Defined values for the indicators considered
Variables	1991/1996		2000		2010
	%		%		%
PT	1,43		1,21		1,30
PIN	11,81		12,00		9,30
PID	4,23		5,19		6,70
E	37,72		47,43		25,57
P	34,68		76,04		83,45
GINI	0,59		0,58		0,57
(b) Statistical tests applied, according to the group of indicators (i) per year
Groups	_^i91/96		_{ⁱ²⁰⁰⁰}		_{ⁱ²⁰¹⁰}
_^R2	0,96		0,98		0,98
Test-t	2,19		1,87		1,62
p (( = 0,05)	0,08		0,12		0,16
F (p< 0,0001)	14.61
(c) Level of Vulnerability of the population of the municipality of Altamira according to five socioeconomic variables, and IVS calculated for the years considered.
Variables	1991/1996		2000		2010
	%	Vulnerability classification	%	Vulnerability classification	%	Vulnerability classification
PT	1,43	1	1,21	1	1,30	1
PIN	11,81	2	12,00	2	9,30	1
PID	4,23	1	5,19	1	6,70	1
E	37,72	2	47,43	2	25,57	1
P	34,68	2	76,04	3	83,45	3
IVS		1.6 (Low)		1.8 (Moderate)		1.4 (Low)
(d) Population variation of Altamira and its relation with the total population of the state of Pará
Years	1991¹	1996¹	2000¹	2007²	2010¹	2014²	2020²
Relation (a/b) %	1,46	1,43	1,21	1,31	1,30	1,60	1,44
Population - Altamira(a)	72.408	78.782	77.439	92.105	99.075	128.846	123.958
Total population -Pará (b)	4.950.060	5.510.849	6.386.876	7.031.660	7.638.340	8.073.924	8.628.901