Análisis de la Contribución Determinada a Nivel Nacional de Brasil y de Algunos Países del Norte y del Sur Global

Pacobello, Daniella Ribeiro; Benedicto, Samuel Carvalho De; Ferreira, Maurício Lamano; Silva Filho, Cândido Ferreira da; Longo, Regina Márcia

doi:10.1590/1809-4422asoc00561vu28L2OA

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Original Article • Ambient. soc. 28 • 2025 • https://doi.org/10.1590/1809-4422asoc00561vu28L2OA linkcopiar

Análisis de la Contribución Determinada a Nivel Nacional de Brasil y de Algunos Países del Norte y del Sur Global

Autoría SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Resumen

El objetivo de este estudio es analizar la Contribución Nacionalmente Determinada (CND) de Brasil, a partir de las CND de países del Norte Global (Alemania y Estados Unidos) y del Sur Global (China y Namibia). La investigación se caracteriza por su carácter aplicado, su enfoque cualitativo y su objetivo descriptivo. El estudio puso de manifiesto que los países en cuestión han adoptado diversas medidas para reducir las emisiones de GEI de aquí a 2030. Algunos adoptan más medidas en un sector determinado que otros debido a sus respectivas fuentes principales de emisiones. Los países del Norte Global son más audaces en sus propuestas. Brasil puede ser menos conservador a la hora de proponer objetivos, ya que existen varios campos para compensar las emisiones nacionales, por ejemplo, la restauración forestal. Si los compromisos asumidos en las respectivas iNDC de los países se cumplen al pie de la letra, estos logros podrían bastar para alcanzar la meta 13.2 del ODS 13.

Palabras-clave:
Calentamiento global; Fenómenos extremos; Cambio climático antropogénico; Políticas de mitigación; CND

Sectors	Summary of commitments
Industry	Reducing carbon emissions by 62%, by 2030, in comparison to 2005 levels. Requiring license for each CO₂ ton emitted by companies. These licenses are acquired through auctions.
Energy	Recording energy savings by 1.5%, by 2025, on a yearly basis. Increasing the renewable energy share in final energy consumption to 42.5%, by 2030. Achieving zero emission in buildings by 2050. Considering that: (i) fossil fuels currently account for more than 3/4 of EU GHG emissions; (ii) cooling and heating buildings account for 40% of all energy consumed in the EU.
Forests, agriculture and soil	Correct land and forest use, increasing carbon sinkholes by 15%, by 2030. Requiring companies to verify that products they sell have not contributed to forest degradation and/or deforestation, anywhere on the planet. Considering that: i) forests are natural carbon sinkholes and capture more carbon from the atmosphere than they release; ii) each year, forests belonging to the EU absorb approximately 7% of total GHG emissions.
Transport	Reducing CO₂ emissions per kilometer from new passenger cars, vans and trucks sold in the EU by 2030, by taking 2021 as reference year. Targets: new cars: mean reduction by 37.5%; new vans: mean reduction by 31%; new trucks: mean reduction by 30%.

Sectors	Summary of commitments
Industry	Supporting research, development, deployment and the commercialization of low- and zero-carbon processes and products. Developing and using hydrogen sources - from renewable energy, nuclear power and waste - to power up industrial facilities. Implementing the American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act to reduce the use of hydrofluorocarbons. Updating standards and investing in ruling out leaks from wells and mines, and across natural gas distribution infrastructures, in order to combat methane.
Energy	100% carbon pollution-free energy generation by 2035.
Forests, agriculture and soil	Supporting the scaling up of climate-smart agricultural practices, reforestation, rotational grazing and nutrient management. Forest management and protection. Wildfire prevention and restoration of fire-damaged areas. Supporting nature-based coastal resilience projects, including pre-disaster planning. Improving agricultural productivity through practices and technologies that reduce methane and N₂O emissions from agriculture. Implementing nutrient management techniques on agricultural lands.
Transport	Investing in transportation infrastructure to improve traffic flow. Encouraging the use of zero-emission personal vehicles, bicycles, trains and pedestrians to reduce the need for using vehicles. Supporting marine and aviation energy decarbonization; whereas the largest sources of emissions in the transportation sector in the U.S. are light vehicles (cars and light trucks), which are followed by heavy trucks, aircrafts, railroads and ships.

Sectors	Summary of commitments
Industry	There were no commitments made.
Energy	Creating and maintaining policies in the energy sector. Including the cost of carbon in the fuel pricing system. Reviewing electricity auction structures for fairer competition. Driving invectives for efficient ethanol gains in flex-fuel engines. Increasing renewable energy shares in the energy matrix. Increasing the use of straw and sugarcane tops to be used as energy source in producing 2nd generation ethanol (which emits 15 times less carbon into the atmosphere than first generation ethanol) and in bioelectricity. Creating the National Biofuels Policy (RenovaBio), which is focused on encouraging the production and consumption of biofuels and reducing GHG. Considering that i) in 2020, renewable energy sources accounted for approximately 48.4% of total energy demand; ii) in electricity demand, sharing renewable energy was close to 84.8%;iii) RenovaBio reduced in 2021 by 66.9MtCO2 in the country.
Forests, agriculture and soil	Ruling out illegal deforestation in the Amazon by increasing resources directed to federal environmental agencies and establishing a more accurate forest monitoring system by the Ministry of Defense. Implementing the Brazilian Forest Code to restore and recovery forests with native species. Creating the National Green Growth Program, prioritizing green initiatives, reducing emissions, rational use of natural resources, and the conservation and protection of forests, to cooperate in creating green job positions.
Transport	Mitigating GHG emissions through the Sectoral Plan for Transportation and Urban Mobility (PSTM). Increase in transportation infrastructure freight due to efficient use of clean energy. Mitigating GHG emissions through the Motor Vehicle Pollution Control Program (Proconve).

Sectors	Summary of commitments
Industry	High-quality development of low-carbon green industry. Building a green manufacturing system. Optimizing industrial structure and expanding clean production. Whereas: The iron and steel industry has implemented high-quality reforms for ultra-low emissions.
Energy	Increased investments in clean energy, given its large solar capacity. Replacement of the coal-based export economy with clean energy. Maintaining world leadership in the production of electric vehicles. Considering that: i) in 2022, the installation of wind, hydroelectric and solar capacity grew significantly when compared to coal; ii) in 2022, solar and wind energy generation grew 21% compared to 2021 and 13.8% of total electricity consumption; iii) in 2022, energy from coal reduced from 65%-70% to 58.4%.
Forests, agriculture and soil	Creating favorable conditions for forests, grasslands, soil and oceans to play their role in carbon sequestration. Maintaining natural and artificial forest cover. Implementing the National Forest Fire Prevention Plan (2016-2025) with the aim of strengthening the prevention and control of forest disasters. Considering that: i) the forest cover area in 2020 was equivalent to 220 million hectares and in 2022 it increased by 23% and forest carbon storage reached close to 9.19 billion tons; ii) between 2016 and 2019 there was a sharp and continuous decline in the average annual number of forest fires.
Transport	Implementation of the Green Transportation Standard System, established in 2016, containing 221 standards covering energy conservation and carbon reduction, ecological protection, pollution control, resource recycling, testing and evaluation, and supervision. Expansion of online bicycle rental services, now available in more than 360 cities, with more than 300 million registered users. Promotion of clean and low-carbon urban traffic.

Sectors	Summary of commitment
Industry	Replacing 23% clinker by other diluents in cement production in order to reduce GHG intensity.
Energy	Driving energy technologies through Namibia’s National Renewable Energy Policy to reduce emissions and support cleaner practices. Replacing existing higher-emitting technologies by cleaner, lower-cost and more efficient technologies.
Forests, agriculture and soil	Reducing the rate of deforestation and clearing, because the country considers reforestation, agroforestry and urban forests essential for carbon and timber yield in light of best forest management practices. Restoring degraded savannah areas, reducing 2.3 MtCO2eq in emissions by 2030. Fighting invasive thorn bushes in the savannah area in the central regions of the country, which contribute to land degradation, to prevent the expansion of animal and plant biodiversity, land yield and hinder ecotourism. Considering that: i) 45 million hectares have been impacted by forest invasion; ii) by 2030, 15.000 hectares will be recovered due to national support and approximately 20.000 hectares due to international support.
Transport	Replacing inefficient fuels by cleaner and more economical forms, i.e., replacing hydrocarbons by electricity or hydrogen. Reducing energy consumption and costs for end users, and reducing carbon emissions. Regulating GHG emission standards for light-duty and transportation vehicles.

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[TFN1] Source: Eurocid (2024), NDC EU (2020) and European Parliament (2023).