Does adaptive strategy for delayed seed dispersion affect extinction probability of a desert species? an assessment using the population viability analysis and glass house experiment

Canopy seed bank is an important adaptive evolutionary trait that provides various types of protection to the seeds. However, costing of such evolutionary trait on plant survival is largely unknown. Present investigation provided a new insight on the serotonious habit of Blepharis sindica associated with its endangerment status. Extinction probabilities of two available population of B. sindica were quantified using two types of census data, i.e., fruiting body number and actual population size. Population Viability Analysis (PVA) revealed that delayed seed release tendency (higher fruiting body number) was not synchronized with actual ground conditions (lower population size). PVA analysis based on actual population size indicated that both the available populations would vanish within 20 years. The mean time of extinction calculated from both type census data indicated its extinction within 48 years. For assessing the conservation criteria, a glass house experiment was carried out with different soil types and compositions. Pure sand and higher proportions of sand -silt were more suitable compared to clay; further, gravelly surface was the most unsuitable habitat for this species. Collection of the seeds from mature fruits/capsule and their sowing with moderate moisture availability with sandy soil could be recommended.

Blepharis sindica; Population Viability Analysis (PVA); Serotiny; Cumulative Probability of Extinction; Mean Extinction Time; Hydrate Mucilage