Impact of Climate Change on Human Infectious Diseases: Dengue

HIGHLIGHTS

Climate change affects human infectious disease via pathogen, host and transmission.

Go beyond the empirical observation of the association between climate and health effect.

Improve prediction of associated changes in infectious diseases at various scales.

Health impacts can be controlled by taking certain proactive measures.

Abstract

Climate is considered an important factor in the temporal and spatial distribution of vector-borne diseases. Dengue transmission involves many factors: although it is not yet fully understood, climate is a critical factor as it facilitates risk analysis of epidemics. This study analyzed the effect of seasonal factors and the relationship between climate variables and dengue risk in the municipality of Campo Grande, from 2008 to 2018. Generalized linear models with negative binomial and Poisson distribution were used. The most appropriate model was the one with "minimum temperature" and "precipitation", both lagged by one month, controlled by "year". In this model, a 1°C rise in the minimum temperature of one month led to an increase in dengue cases the following month, while a 10 mm increase in precipitation led to an increase in dengue cases the following month.

Keywords:
dengue; climate; temporal distribution