Mitigating Aral Sea disaster aftermath: evaluating soil salinization trends and eco-friendly remediation in KarakalpakstanAbstract
The environmental disaster of the Aral Sea has revealed the Karakalpakstan Autonomous Republic soils to increasing salinity and large-scale degradation. A main contribution of this research is to propose a combined approach (field observation, remote sensing, and remedial experiments) to analyze trends of salinity and evaluate environmentally sound restoration techniques from 2019 to 2024. The results showed that the salinity of the soil (ECe) at 15 km away from the dry lake bed is 35.7 dS/m (±3.2), 4.8 times that of farmland areas distant from the dry lake bed (p<0.001). The dominant ionic constitution of Na+-Cl− (72% of the samples) and high exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP>25%) has reduced the permeability of soil. Seasonal monitoring confirmed the enhancement of summer surface salinity (mean ΔECe=12.7±2.3 dS/m) and salt accumulation at 30-60 cm depths as a long-term problem. The improvement phase saw cultivation of the native plant Tamarix ramosissima, with 92% survival at 28 dS/m, as the most effective method in 58% reduction of surface salinity through physiological means. Its combination with organic mulch (32% decrease in evaporation) and compost (2.3-fold increase in microbial activity) significantly improved soil health. Projections for the future warn of a 67% decrease in wheat production to be expected by 2030, assuming that trends continue, whereas modeling confirms nature-based solutions' effectiveness to stabilize salinity levels at values lower than 20 dS/m. This study specifically emphasizes the need to change wasteful historical practices to ecosystem-based restoration systems as the necessity of quick sustainability of Karakalpakstan.
Keywords:
salinization of the soil; restoration of ecosystems; Karakalpakstan; ecologically secure technologies
Resumo
O desastre ambiental do Mar de Aral expôs os solos da República Autônoma do Caracalpaquistão ao aumento da salinidade e à degradação em larga escala. Uma das principais contribuições desta pesquisa é propor uma abordagem combinada (observação de campo, sensoriamento remoto e experimentos de remediação) para analisar as tendências de salinidade e avaliar técnicas de restauração ambientalmente adequadas de 2019 a 2024. Os resultados mostraram que a salinidade do solo (ECe) a 15 km do leito seco do lago é de 35,7 dS/m (±3,2), 4,8 vezes superior à de áreas agrícolas distantes do leito seco do lago (p<0,001). A constituição iônica dominante de Na+-Cl− (72% das amostras) e a alta porcentagem de sódio trocável (ESP>25%) reduziram a permeabilidade do solo. O monitoramento sazonal confirmou o aumento da salinidade da superfície no verão (ΔECe médio = 12,7 ± 2,3 dS/m) e o acúmulo de sal a 30-60 cm de profundidade como um problema de longo prazo. Na fase de melhoramento, o cultivo da planta nativa Tamarix ramosissima, com 92% de sobrevivência a 28 dS/m, mostrou-se o método mais eficaz na redução de 58% da salinidade da superfície por meios fisiológicos. Sua combinação com cobertura morta orgânica (redução de 32% na evaporação) e composto (aumento de 2,3 vezes na atividade microbiana) melhorou significativamente a saúde do solo. As projeções para o futuro alertam para uma diminuição de 67% na produção de trigo até 2030, caso as tendências atuais se mantenham, enquanto a modelagem confirma a eficácia de soluções baseadas na natureza para estabilizar os níveis de salinidade em valores inferiores a 20 dS/m. Este estudo enfatiza a necessidade de mudar práticas históricas de desperdício para sistemas de restauração baseados em ecossistemas para garantir a sustentabilidade do Carapalpaquistão.
Palavras-chave:
salinização do solo; restauração de ecossistemas; Caracalpaquistão; tecnologias ecologicamente seguras
1. Introduction
The Aral Sea ecological disaster, one of the biggest and most devastating marine disasters of the 20th century, has brought disastrous consequences to the huge territory surrounding it, particularly the Autonomous Republic of Karakalpakstan and Uzbekistan (Alieva et al., 2023). The unprecedented evaporation of this vast amount of water has not merely transformed the physical landscape of the region, but has triggered a series of eco-socio crises which are still putting local communities as well as the environment under great stresses. An understanding of the scale and severity of this tragedy provides an essential underpinning to any effort at recovery (Jin et al., 2023; Pouladi et al., 2024).
Among the many challenges that come with this crisis, soil salinization stands out as a direct and mounting threat to the economic lives and livelihoods of Karakalpakstan people. Once relatively fertile productive agricultural land is now losing productivity at a compounded rate due to intrusives from the dry lake bed and irresponsible use of the available water resources for irrigation (Khasanov et al., 2023). This consistent erosion of agricultural strength has seriously jeopardized the livelihoods and food security of thousands of rural households. Salinization is not just a method of reducing agricultural output, but also opens up a vicious cycle of degradation in ecology (Warui, 2024). Saline and alkaline soils destroy natural vegetation, which in turn leads to increased wind erosion and transfer of the storms of salt to distant areas. These storms not only threaten the respiratory health of humans and animals, but they also degrade the quality of water and land in the affected regions, expanding the scope of the crisis. This degradation of the ecosystem has made natural recovery of the region extremely difficult (Daba, 2025).
Although decades have passed since the peak of the Aral Sea crisis and there is a general familiarity with the problem of soil salinity in the area of Karakalpakstan, there are still significant discrepancies in our precise understanding of the current temporal and spatial tendencies of this process (Plotnikov et al., 2023; Neelima et al., 2024; Kambarov et al., 2024). Continuous monitoring and quantitative assessment of ongoing trends and intensities of soil salinization, especially in the context of climate change and upstream water resource management developments, is an undeniable fact. Without such timely and accurate data, designing any feasible and concrete solution to address this problem will significantly be handicapped (Wang et al., 2024; Nursalim, 2021; Htet et al., 2025). Therefore, it becomes essential to conduct thorough research that assesses objectively current trends in soil salinization within the Karakalpakstan region, and finding ecologically sustainable and friendly remediation solutions (Gofurov et al., 2023; Mohammed and Al-Gawhari, 2024). Not only is it crucial to gain such knowledge to help restore the degraded land and offer sustainable livelihoods to the local people, but also to serve as a model for sustainable land management for the rest of the arid and semi-arid regions of the world grappling with the same issues (Burkhanov et al., 2025; Samira et al., 2025). This research is a stepping stone towards reducing the human and environmental suffering caused by the Aral Sea disaster.
Several studies have analyzed the effect of the Aral Sea environmental disaster in the last three decades, most notably in Karakalpakstan. Earlier research primarily focused on the drying up process of the lake, the hydrological transformation in its feeding rivers, and its first-order socio-economic impacts (Touge et al., 2024). This underlying research established our understanding of the scope and pace of this man-made catastrophe and of its causality with the general policies of agricultural development in the 20th century (AghaKouchak et al., 2015). They clearly demonstrated that the canalization of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers to irrigate large cotton plantations was the main cause of collapse of this aquatic ecosystem. Step two dealt with intensification of the researchers' interest to the issue of land degradation, namely the mechanism of soil salinization on the former seashore of the Aral Sea. Field observations and laboratory investigations increasingly revealed the various salinization mechanisms of Karakalpakstan soils (Priyono et al., 2022; Micklin, 2014; Conrad et al., 2016; Ha Nguyen et al., 2024). These studies revealed that the rapid evaporation of brackish groundwater, salt transport of the dry lake bed by wind, and salt buildup as a result of irrigation with brackish water and inadequate drainage collectively led to the rapid degradation of agricultural land and pastureland quality. Scientific evidence clearly indicated a direct relationship between the reduction of the lake levels and the rise in the salinity of the downstream regions.
Concerning the impacts of salinity, research examined the harmful effects of the process on biodiversity, soil fertility, and human health. Experiments confirmed that high salinity levels not only significantly reduced the productivity of traditional crop and crop-related agricultural products, but also resulted in total annihilation of the natural vegetation cover and increased wind erosion (Malal et al., 2024; Shariati et al., 2013). Health research also registered high concurrence of salt storms with the occurrence of harmful particles and a high number of cases of respiratory and eye disease among people in the affected areas. The findings highlight the magnitude of the humanitarian crisis caused by land degradation in the region. When it comes to strategies against salinity, the literature had included a wide range of field experiments and experimental research (Li et al., 2025). Soil leaching and chemical amendments (e.g., gypsum) have been tested on a small scale with the traditional methods, but severe obstacles have been encountered regarding high water needs, high expense, negative environmental effects and the narrow sustainability of the outcome of these treatments (Pandian et al., 2024). In recent times, nature-based solutions with drought adaptation have received increasing attention. Emerging research is looking into stabilizing saline soils with halophytes to avoid wind erosion as well as even creating economic gains by growing salt-tolerant species (Muhammad et al., 2024; Inayat et al., 2023; Alrashedi et al., 2024).
Even though there is considerable progress in evaluating dimensions of the crisis as well as possible management options, there are still major knowledge gaps. Most of the previous research is point-based or limited to short time periods and are not followed by continuous and comprehensive monitoring of the trends in salinity change on large spatial and temporal scales. Furthermore, comparative and systematic evaluation of the long-term efficiency, economic effectiveness, and ecological viability of different restoration activities, particularly ecosystem-based actions, under Karachay-Kalpakstan conditions is scarce. Failures underlie the need for new research to define a more realistic assessment of the situation today and to assess in fact suitable and sustainable alternatives for restoration.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study area and sampling units
This study was conducted within the Karakalpakstan Autonomous Republic, northwestern Uzbekistan, along the dried-up bed of the Aral Sea. The study area was divided into five homogenous units based on the severity of salinity degradation, proximity to the ex-lake bed, and land use patterns. For each unit, a grid sample point network was designed with respect to topography and vegetation variations. 120 soil sampling points and 0-30 cm and 30-60 cm depths were selected in wet and dry seasons of the year to assess seasonally salinity variations.
2.2. Soil sample collection and analysis
Compositely prepared soil samples from every sampling point were collected in accordance with regular practice. The samples were moved to the laboratory, then air-dried and sieved through a 2-mm mesh. Salinity indicators, including saturated extract electrical conductivity (ECe) and exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP), were determined using reference methods. Further, the major dissolved ion content (Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, Cl−, SO42−, HCO3−) was determined with ion chromatography and titration. Soil hydrogen potential (pH) was also measured in a soil:water suspension ratio of 1:2.5.
2.3. Field monitoring and non-destructive measurements
In parallel with on-site direct sampling, an electromagnetic salinometer (EM38-MK2) was used to take non-destructive measurements of soil salinity at all sites and along the transect profiles. These measurements were used to construct surface and subsurface salinity zoning maps. Further, satellite monitoring using Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 images (for long-term temporal data) with focus on spectral indices of soil salinity and vegetation (e.g., NDSI and SI indices) was done from 2019 to 2024. Images were atmospherically and geometrically corrected with care.
2.4. Design and implementation of improvement experiments
There were three main methods that were experimentally used to evaluate environmentally friendly improvement strategies in areas with high salinity. First, planting of native salt-tolerant species such as Haloxylon aphyllum (Lemongrass) and Tamarix ramosissima (Tamarind) was carried out in specific designs and irrigation was supplied exclusively in the first year of crop establishment. Second, native plant residues such as straw and stubble were tossed on the surface as natural mulch to reduce water loss by evaporation and wind erosion. Thirdly, limited-use organic manures like compost sourced from the nearby agricultural waste were placed on the soil surface in a specific design. Plant growth attributes, alterations in soil EC and ESP, and vegetation cover values were checked at intervals in these field trials for two cropping seasons.
2.5. Data analysis
Soil salinity readings were zoned using geostatistical methods (kriging) in ArcGIS Pro software. Time tendencies in the dynamics of salinity change were investigated with comparison of time series of satellite data and field measurements. Statistical comparison of means between units and between correction methods was conducted using one-way ANOVA and Tukey's HSD tests with SPSS software. Relationship between environmental conditions and soil salinity was also investigated using correlation analysis and PCA. All sampling procedures and field experiments were performed under ethical regulations and after obtaining necessary permits from the local competent authorities.
3. Results
3.1. Spatiotemporal salinity distribution
It quantitatively measured intense salinity gradients radiating from the dry Aral Sea bottom. Table 1 substantiates that within 15 km of the former shoreline, average topsoil ECe was 35.7 dS/m (±3.2 SE) – above the hypersaline threshold (>16 dS/m) and 4.8 times greater than in distal agricultural regions (p<0.001, F=87.3). Salt crust cover decreased in a negative logarithmic relationship with vegetation density (r=-0.89), bearing testimony to aeolian transport being the dominant degradation vector.
3.2. Seasonal dynamics
Table 2 captures significant intra-annual ECe fluctuations, with surface salinity (0-30 cm) peaking during arid summer months (July-Sept mean: 28.9 dS/m) and partial leaching during spring irrigation (Apr-Jun mean: 16.2 dS/m). Subsoil horizons (30-60 cm) maintained consistently elevated ECe (>22 dS/m year-round), indicating ineffective leaching and progressive salt accumulation.
3.3. Geochemical characterization
Ionic dominance patterns revealed Na+-Cl− assemblages in 72% of hypersaline samples, with carbonate enrichment at 40-60 cm depths. Table 3 demonstrates that ESP consistently exceeded the sodic soil threshold (15%) across all zones, reaching critical levels (>25%) near the former shoreline. This sodicity directly correlated with reduced hydraulic conductivity (r=-0.76).
3.4. Halophyte-based remediation
Table 4 contrasts the performance of native species under extreme salinity. Tamarix ramosissima demonstrated superior survival (92%) and salt accumulation capacity (18.3 mg/g foliar Cl−) compared to Haloxylon aphyllum (78% survival, 14.1 mg/g Cl−). Both species reduced surface ECe by 40-60% within 18 months through phytoextraction and canopy-induced microclimate modification.
3.5. Organic amendment performance
Table 5 quantifies treatment effects on soil health. Organic mulch reduced evaporative salt concentration by 32% relative to controls, while compost integration enhanced microbial biomass (FDA hydrolysis: 2.3-fold increase) and reduced ESP by 19%. Treatment efficacy exhibited strong dependency on groundwater salinity (r=-0.82 for compost performance vs. groundwater EC).
3.6. Remote sensing validation
Table 6 establishes Sentinel-2's NDSI as the optimal spectral index for regional salinity mapping (R2=0.84, RMSE=3.1 dS/m), outperforming traditional indices like SI (R2=0.67). Time-series analysis confirmed a 17.3% annual expansion of severely saline lands (ECe>16 dS/m), with newly affected areas concentrated in southeastern agricultural zones.
3.7. Projected salinization trajectories
Table 7 models topsoil ECe escalation under climate scenarios, predicting 41-67% yield loss for wheat by 2030 without intervention. Halophyte-based systems demonstrated significant buffering capacity, maintaining ECe <20 dS/m even under RCP4.5 projections, highlighting their potential as critical adaptation infrastructure.
4. Discussion
Findings of this study provide a bleak picture of the growth of soil salinization in Karakalpakstan. Statistical information reveals that the salts' concentration in soils of the former Aral Sea bed (ECe > 35 dS/m) is far above the natural and agricultural ecosystem's tolerance level (p<0.001). This condition not only confirms the previous research regarding salt storm involvement in lake bed salts transportation (r=-0.89), but it also introduces a new mechanism: the gradual accumulation of salt in the lower soil horizons (30-60 cm) even in seemingly intensified areas. Our findings affirm that conventional leaching methods have only a temporary effect and in the long run exacerbate the problem by transporting salt into lower horizons.
The result of soil ionic composition (Table 3) reveals the dominance of the sodium-chloride trend in 72% of the samples, accompanied by high exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP>25%). This condition has two important effects: first, reduced soil permeability and existence of hard crust that prevents natural leaching of salts, and secondly, ionic toxicity in plants. In an irony, while in cultivated soil irrigation decreases temporary surface salinity (ΔECe=12.7±2.3 dS/m), it causes loading of salt at 30-60 cm depth (p=0.013). This finding depicts a primary flaw in the drainage system of the region.
On a remedial scale, field observations validate the spectacular superiority of nature-based over conventional measures. The ability of indigenous plants such as Tamarix ramosissima to grow under severe salinity (92% survival at ECe=28 dS/m) not only has the potential to stabilize deteriorated soils, but also contributes significantly towards the active mitigation of soil salinity through physiological means such as excretion of salt through leaf stomata (58% reduction in surface ECe). Merging these varieties with composted organic mulches (32% evaporation reduction) and native compost (2.3 times microbial activity increase) restores biogeochemical cycles. The findings are consistent with new studies in arid regions of the world, but the novelty of the present study is the proof that this mixture works under the extremely high salinity conditions of Karakalpakstan.
Future projections warn that perpetuating the trend could lower wheat yields by up to 67% by 2030. However, as per our modeling, application of integrated systems of halophytes and organic amendments should maintain soil salinity at a more stable level (ECe<20 dS/m). The idea here is that such measures will succeed if they can adapt to climate change and variability in groundwater salinity (r=-0.82).
5. Conclusions
This study, revealing dynamic and multi-layered salinization patterns in Karakalpakstan, paints a grim picture of the worsening environmental crisis following the Aral Sea tragedy. The unequivocal findings show that soil salinity not only evolved into critical levels in the former coastal areas, but is rapidly advancing to more distant agricultural areas through complex mechanisms, including salt migration by dust storms and slow accumulation in the subsoil. Careful field observation and laboratory tests have established that old soil improvement methods such as leaching, while lowering surface salinity in the short term, in the long term lead to salt movement into deeper parts of the soil, aggravating the condition in lower layers, in the process over-exploiting existing water resources. This inefficacy arises when the prevailing ionic make-up of soils (sodium-chloride) with high exchangeable sodium percentage, dissolves soil particles and reduces soil permeability.
On the contrary, nature-based solutions developed in this study have encouraging prospects. The high capability of native species such as Tamarix ramosissima to resist extremely high salinity (92% stability at ECe=28 dS/m) and physiological reduction of soil salt capability qualify these species as an effective and sustainable method of stabilizing degraded land. Combining this technique with the use of local organic mulches and composts made from farm wastes revived natural processes in the soil and increased microbial action by 2.3 fold, reducing surface salinity by 32–58%. This combined method is not only technically more efficient, but more economic in model and more adaptive to the situation in the region, using local resources and avoiding external dependence.
Model projection estimates that, by continuing current trends, as much as 67 percent of the productivity of wheat crops could be lost by 2030. However, simulations clearly show that wider application of systems founded on saline flora and organic amendments can maintain salinity indices at a more sustainable level. Achieving this vision requires the establishment of an integrated system of combined monitoring (ground and remote sensing) for following salinity trends, a fundamental redefinition of irrigation norms suited to subsurface salinity trends, and the derivation of extension programs for cultivating economically valuable tolerant varieties. Lastly, conservation of Karakalpakstan's lands is more than an environmental necessity; it is a requirement that cannot be refused for social and livelihood sustainability of indigenous local communities, and its consequences can be a model to other deserts of the world on the verge of undergoing the same crisis.
Data Availability Statement
Data available on request from the authors
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Edited by
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Editor:
Takako Matsumura Tundisi
