Punctuated Equilibrium Theory and the Dynamics of Change in Brazil’s Federal Budget (2000-2021)

Abstract

The primary goal of this article is to examine the dynamics of changes in expenditure allocation in Brazil’s federal budget over the past two decades, highlighting periods of incrementalism and punctuation based on the theoretical and methodological assumptions of Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET). To achieve this, a database of the approved federal budget from 2000 to 2021 was created, with budget classifications coded into 21 policy domains following the methodology of the Comparative Agendas Project (CAP). Descriptive analyses of the federal government’s expenditures and budget changes were conducted across 21 domains, along with the calculation of the L-Kurtosis indicator to assess the distribution of budget changes and identify their types. The results show that Brazil’s trajectory of budget changes is characterized by punctuations, as indicated by an L-Kurtosis value of 0.657. This pattern stems from a reform agenda initiated in 2003 to expand social policies, which began to reverse after 2015 due to a political, economic, and institutional crisis. Despite the rigidity of Brazil’s budget and institutional constraints, political preferences also play a significant role in shaping government priorities and driving budget changes.

Punctuated equilibrium theory; public budget; policy change; political institutions; government agenda