The "extreme value distribution" model (Gumbel) was tested to estimate the probabilities of occurrence of monthly (May throught September) and yearly absolute minimum temperature and frost concerning 20 localities of the State of São Paulo, Brazil. The probability of the density function parameters was estimated for all localities during the studied periods. The model showed good agreement between observed and estimated probabilities.' Results allowed to identify and quantify areas with different levels of probability of frost occurrence. The highest probabilities of low temperature occurrence were during June-August, with values between 60 and 95% for the mountain areas and Southwest region of the State.
probabilities; frost; minimum temperature; Gumbel distribution