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Open-access Prediction of PaO2 from SpO2 values in critically ill invasively ventilated patients: rationale and protocol for a patient–level analysis of ERICC, LUNG SAFE, PRoVENT and PRoVENT–iMiC (PRoPERLy II)

ABSTRACT

Introduction:  In patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), mortality risk is typically assessed using the arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2) divided by the fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2), known as the PaO2/FiO2 ratio. Recently, the SpO2/FiO2 ratio, which uses peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2) instead of PaO2, has been suggested as a reasonable alternative when there is little access to arterial blood gas analyses. Additionally, equations that predict PaO2 from SpO2 values could offer another viable method for assessment.

Aim:  To evaluate the accuracy of methods for predicting PaO2 from SpO2 values and compare risk stratification based on measured versus predicted PaO2/FiO2 ratios using a large database that harmonizes the individual data of patients included in four observational studies.

Methods and analysis:  The individual data from four observational studies (‘Epidemiology of Respiratory Insufficiency in Critical Care study’ [ERICC], ‘Large Observational Study to Understand the Global Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Failure’ [LUNG SAFE], ‘PRactice of VENTilation in critically ill patients without ARDS’ [PRoVENT], and ‘PRactice of VENTilation in critically ill patients in Middle–income Countries’ [PRoVENT–iMiC]) were harmonized and pooled into a database named ‘PRoPERLy II’. The primary endpoint of this planned analysis will be the accuracy of currently available methods to predict PaO2 from SpO2 values. The secondary endpoint will be the accuracy of classification based on SpO2/FiO2 ratio and the predicted PaO2/FiO2 ratio.

Dissemination:  Our planned analysis addresses a clinically important research question by comparing different equations for predicting PaO2 from SpO2 values.

Keywords:
Critical illness; Critical care; Respiratory distress syndrome; Respiratory insufficiency; Respiration,artificial; Oxygen; Oxygen saturation; Partial pressure; Risk assessment

INTRODUCTION

For patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), mortality risk is commonly stratified by the ratio of the arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2) to the fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2), referred to as the PaO2/FiO2 ratio.(1) In centers where access to repeated arterial sampling is limited or unavailable, such as in resource–limited settings, alternative methods must be considered. Moreover, during pandemic outbreaks with high patient volumes, alternative approaches to repeated sampling could be necessary. This has prompted consideration of SpO2/FiO2 as an alternative to the PaO2/FiO2 ratio, where peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2) is a substitute for PaO2.(2) However, it remains uncertain whether risk stratification based on the SpO2/FiO2 ratio performs equivalently to that based on the PaO2/FiO2 ratio.

Another approach could be to predict PaO2 from SpO2 values, for which several equations have been suggested.(3-8) However, their use remains limited. Not all equations have been validated in invasively ventilated patients(7) or in adult patients,(9) and inaccuracies may occur, particularly at higher PaO2 values.(3-5,7) Newer equations for noninvasive respiratory support patients(7) and critically ill pediatric patients(9) have been suggested, but these equations also need validation in invasively ventilated patients and adult patients.

We have recently established a large database named PRoPERLy II. This database consists of harmonized and pooled individual patient data from four prospective, observational studies named the Epidemiology of Respiratory Insufficiency in Critical Care study (ERICC),(10) the Large Observational Study to Understand the Global Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Failure (LUNG SAFE),(11) the PRactice of VENTilation in critically ill patients without ARDS (PRoVENT),(12) and the PRactice of VENTilation in critically ill patients in Middle–income Countries (PRoVENT–iMiC).(13) Since these studies collected simultaneously obtained PaO2 and SpO2 values, along with the corresponding FiO2 at the time of collection, this database is well suited for validating various equations for calculating PaO2 from SpO2 values.

Here, we outline the structure of the PRoPERLy II database and present a detailed analysis plan for its initial analysis, focusing on the accuracy of several suggested methods for predicting PaO2. Our primary objective is to assess the accuracy of these equations. The secondary objective is to determine whether classifications based on predicted PaO2/FiO2 ratios create comparable mortality risk groups to those based on measured PaO2/FiO2 ratios. We hypothesize that the accuracies of the various equations will differ; however, they will result in similar stratification of patients into severity groups based on PaO2/FiO2 ratios.

METHODS

Study design

PRoPERLy II is a harmonized and pooled database comprising individual data of patients included in four large, prospective, observational studies focusing on ventilation management in critically ill patients, including 773 patients from Brazil in ERICC,(10) 3,446 patients from 50 countries worldwide in LUNG SAFE,(11) 1,021 patients from 16 countries worldwide in PRoVENT,(12) and 1,315 patients from 10 Asian countries in PROVENT–iMiC(13) (Figure 1). PRoPERLy II thus contains data from a total of 6,555 invasively ventilated patients. Further information regarding the original studies can be found in the original publications. The creation of the pooled database, including the harmonization of collected data, required neither additional ethical approval nor individual patient informed consent. Each analysis of PRoPERLy II will follow the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) Statement.(14)

Figure 1
Flow of patients.

The databases of the 4 original studies were standardized, using case report forms and data dictionaries, and thereafter merged into the pooled database. The original studies met the following inclusion criteria, as reported in table 1.

Table 1
Summary table: inclusion and exclusion criteria across trials

ERICC included patients aged 18 years or older who received ventilatory support for at least 24 hours during the first 48 hours of intensive care unit (ICU) admission at participating ICUs. They excluded patients who underwent tracheostomy, patients admitted for routine uncomplicated postoperative care, patients who were readmitted, and patients with terminal conditions. ERICC enrolled patients over a 2-month period.

LUNG SAFE included patients aged 16 years or older who received invasive or noninvasive ventilation. LUNG SAFE excluded patients who never received invasive ventilation, patients whose electronic case report forms were not fully complete, those who did not develop acute hypoxic respiratory failure, and those without informed consent. LUNG SAFE enrolled patients during a 4-week period during the winter months.

PRoVENT included patients aged 18 years or older who received invasive ventilation. They excluded patients in whom ventilation was started before the study recruitment week, patients receiving only noninvasive ventilation, and patients who were transferred to the ICU from another hospital under mechanical ventilation. PRoVENT enrolled patients during a predefined 1-week period.

PRoVENT–iMiC included patients aged 18 years or older who started with invasive ventilation. They excluded patients who received only noninvasive ventilation, patients whose invasive ventilation started before the inclusion phase of the study, and patients transferred from another hospital while under ventilation. PRoVENT–iMiC enrolled patients during a 4-week period.

All patients included in PRoPERLy II were eligible for participation in an analysis in which we determined the accuracy of various equations for the prediction of PaO2 from SpO2. For this specific analysis, we will apply additional exclusion criteria: patients without reported SpO2 values and those whose SpO2 values were recorded more than 2 hours after their corresponding PaO2 values. Importantly, these exclusion criteria pertain only to this initial analysis and do not affect the overall dataset creation.

The dataset for PRoPERLy II was constructed to include all eligible patients who received invasive mechanical ventilation, regardless of whether they had a diagnosis of ARDS. Therefore, the complete dataset encompasses both patients with ARDS and those without ARDS, allowing for a comprehensive evaluation of the relationship between SpO2 and PaO2 values across a diverse patient population. This approach ensures that the analysis is robust and representative of the various underlying conditions leading to acute respiratory failure.

Data collected in the original studies

In the ERICC, LUNGSAFE, PROVENT, and PROVENT-iMiC studies, the following data were collected. The baseline and demographic variables included age, sex, actual body weight, height, body mass index (BMI), type of admission (medical, elective surgery, urgent surgery, or trauma), and comorbidities, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, neoplasia, neoplasia hematological, heart failure, and chronic liver failure.

The following disease severity score was collected: Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA). Additionally, for each patient, the main reason for invasive ventilation was reported.

For each patient, ventilation characteristics, including ventilation mode, positive end expiratory pressure (PEEP), tidal volume (VT), respiratory rate (RR), peak pressure (Ppeak) or plateau pressure (Pplat), inspired oxygen fraction (FiO2), blood gas analysis data when available (arterial pH, partial pressure of arterial blood oxygen tension (PaO2), and partial pressure of arterial blood carbon dioxide tension (PaCO2)), were collected on Day 1 and Day 2, as captured in the original studies.

Harmonization and merging

The reasons for invasive ventilation were harmonized and merged into PRoPERLy II, as shown in table 2. These included the predisposing condition according to the lung injury prediction score (LIPS) for several ARDS risk factors. The ventilation days were merged into ‘Day 1’ for the first day of ventilatory variables in patients receiving invasive mechanical ventilation in the ICU and ‘Day 2’ for the second day. Mortality was defined as any death, for all causes, occurring in the ‘ICU or in the hospital (Table 3).

Table 2
Data collected across the studies
Table 3
Outcomes across the studies

When one study collected a variable differently—for example, by categorizing patients on the Glasgow Coma Scale into groups such as < 7, between 8 and 12, and > 13—the same categorization method was adopted across all studies. During the polling operation, if a variable was not found in at least two datasets and data dictionaries, that variable was excluded.

Analysis plan

We will assess the accuracy of the following four proposed equations for correctly estimating PaO2 and stratifying patient severity based on PaO2/FiO2 ratio: Rice et al.;(8) Pandariphande et al.;(6) Severinghaus et al.,(15) Ellis (3) and Gadrey et al.,(7) and Sauthier et al. (Table 4).(9)

Table 4
Summary table of equations

Calculations and definitions

VT is expressed in mL/kg predicted body weight (PBW), where PBW is calculated as follows:

[Eq. 1] in males, PBW = 50 + 0.91 * ( height ( cm ) 152.4 ( cm ) )
[Eq. 2] in females, PBW = 45.5 + 0.91 * ( height ( cm ) 152.4 ( cm ) )

For RR, expressed in breath/min, we use the total RR as reported in the original studies.

The dynamic driving pressure (ΔP) is expressed in cm H2O and is calculated as follows:

[Eq. 3] Δ P = Pplat ( cmH 2 O ) PEEP ( cmH 2 O ) ( in volume-controlled ventilation )
[Eq. 4] Δ P = Ppeak ( cmH 2 O ) PEEP ( cmH 2 O ) ( in pressure-controlled ventilation )

The dynamic compliance respiratory system (CRS), expressed in ml/cm H2O, is calculated as follows:

[Eq. 5] C RS = V T ( ml ) / Δ P ( cmH 2 O )

The dynamic mechanical power (MP) is expressed in J/min and is calculated as follows:

[Eq. 6] MP = 0.098 * V T * RR * ( Pmax 0.5 * Δ P )

Endpoints

The primary endpoint is the accuracy of currently available methods to predict PaO2 from SpO2 values. The secondary endpoint is the accuracy of classification based on SpO2/FiO2 ratio and the predicted PaO2/FiO2 ratio.

Sample size

No formal sample size calculation was performed. The sample size for this initial analysis of PRoPERLy II was based on the number of available patients in the pooled database. In anticipation of a 60% dropout rate due to the application of exclusion criteria for this analysis, we expect to include at least 2,500 patients. The number of missing data points will be reported in a specific table in the supplement, and no imputation will be used.

Statistical analysis plan

We will use simultaneously obtained PaO2 and SpO2 values, along with the corresponding FiO2, if the timeframe does not exceed 2 hours. We will fit each estimation method to the data to obtain a predicted PaO2 and predicted PaO2/FiO2 ratios using these estimated values. All the models will be validated with 500 bootstrap repetitions to improve the robustness of the effect estimates and control for overfitting. PaO2 will be measured via arterial blood gas (ABG) analysis. The accuracy of the predicted PaO2 will be assessed via the root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage of error (MAPE) of the derived models. ARDS severity will be classified according to the Berlin criteria cutoff (ordinal score) by Somers´ Dxy rank correlation. The accuracy of the predictions will be further evaluated with the Diebold–Mariano t–test. Moreover, calibration plots and intraclass correlation coefficient will be reports as recommended.(16)

Additionally, precision error, bias, and limits of agreement will be assessed with Bland–Altman analysis, where the reference method is the measured PaO2. The threshold of acceptable bias and precision (defined as the difference between the upper and lower LoAs) was preestablished at 19 to account for the variability of ABG measurements.(17) The precision error will be calculated as follows: 1.96 × standard deviation (SD) of the bias of the methods × 100%.(18) The normality distribution of the differences will be checked with quantile–quantile (QQ) plots and histograms. If the normality assumption is not fulfilled, logarithmic data transformation will be performed. Proportional bias will be assessed by fitting an ordinary linear regression in Bland–Altman plots.(19) If repeated measures are obtained from patients, confidence intervals for LoA will be adjusted as recommended.(20) Trending ability will be assessed in addition to accuracy analysis. We use the four-quadrant plot, polar plot, and clinical concordance plot methods to test the magnitude and directionality of the change.(21)

The amount of fixed and proportional bias will also be assessed with orthogonal (Deming) regression. Orthogonal regression is a variant of least products regression analysis and allows for both the y and the x values to be attended by random errors. It depends on minimizing the sum of the products of the deviations of both the x and y values from the estimated regression line. Orthogonal regression requires no judgment on whether the y or x variables provide ‘true’ or ‘benchmark’ values. If the scatter increases with the level of y (and x), then weighted least products (WLP) Passing–Bablok regression analysis will be used.(22)

After obtaining the best method of predicting PaO2 among those tested, we will plot a table of predicted PaO2 values according to the administered FiO2 and measured SpO2 to provide a rapid and easy assessment method.

The accuracy of each estimation in stratifying ARDS severity as defined by the Berlin criteria(1) with respect to the measured PaO2/FiO2 ratio by Somers’ Dxy rank correlation, a generalization of the receiver operating characteristic area for ordinal variables. Dxy will be calculated after correction for overfitting by cross-validation.

We will perform a sensitivity analysis of the accuracy by analyzing only values below an SpO2 of 98%. As a secondary sensitivity analysis, we will reanalyze the data with SpO2 values ≤ 96% excluded, recalculating correlations with PaO2 to examine the effect of removing these higher saturation levels. In addition, we will perform the following subgroup analysis to assess the effects of the following parameters on the accuracy of the different methods:

  1. pH, i.e., < 7.35, 7.35 to 7.45, or > 7.45;

  2. PEEP, i.e., < 10 cmH2O and high PEEP, i.e., > 10cmH2O

DISCUSSION

This will be the first analysis of PRoPERLy II, a pooled database that harmonizes and merges individual patient data from critically ill patients included in four previously conducted global studies of invasive ventilation. The primary objective of this initial analysis was to assess the accuracy of the currently available methods for predicting PaO2 from SpO2 values. The secondary objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of the classification of ARDS severity by using predicted PaO2/FiO2 ratios compared with measured PaO2/FiO2 ratios in various patient categories.

This analysis addresses a clinically important research question by comparing different equations for predicting PaO2 from SpO2 values. This investigation is crucial, as accurate prediction of PaO2 from SpO2 can inform clinical decisions, such as oxygen therapy management and even respiratory support strategies. By evaluating various prediction equations, this study aims to identify the most reliable method for noninvasively estimating arterial oxygenation status, particularly in settings where direct arterial blood gas measurements may be limited or impractical.

The initial analysis of PRoPERLy II may confirm whether the SpO2/FiO2 ratios constitute a reasonable alternative in settings with little access to arterial blood gas analyses, potentially aiding inclusion in observational studies, facilitating risk stratification, and enabling timely enrollment in randomized clinical trials.

This study is based on data from the PRoPERLy II dataset, which has certain limitations. The four parent studies were conducted independently and in different years, potentially introducing variability in data collection methods, patient populations, and clinical practices. Additionally, we lacked access to variables such as shock status (i.e., use of vasopressors), skin color, and distal perfusion quality, as these variables were not collected in the original studies; this limits our ability to assess certain factors that may influence SpO2 measurement accuracy. This specific analysis has additional limitations. Indeed, while previous findings show(7) acceptable SpO2 and PaO2 pairing with measures taken up to 30 minutes apart, reducing the timeframe to under 30 minutes was not feasible with the data available from the original studies. As a post hoc analysis of previously collected observational data, the findings can be interpreted only as hypothesis–generating and need to be confirmed through prospective studies to establish causality. Despite these limitations, this analysis provides valuable insights that could guide future research and clinical practice. The application of robust statistical methods, including multivariable models, ensures the reliability and validity of the results. By strictly adhering to a predefined statistical analysis plan, the study minimizes the risk of deviations from the initial research hypotheses, thereby maintaining the integrity and credibility of the analysis. The strengths of the analysis derive partially from the extensive PRoPERLy II database, which enables sophisticated and comprehensive analyses, enhancing the statistical power and reliability of the findings. Additionally, the inclusion of global participation, encompassing data from various types of hospitals in both resource-rich and resource-limited settings, increases the generalizability of the results.

Notably, after this initial analysis of PRoPERLy II, the database will be available for additional analysis. For this purpose, interested investigators will have to provide a detailed analysis plan, containing a testable hypothesis, clearly described endpoints and an analysis plan. After approval, investigators will be provided with a mock database that will allow them to write an analysis script in R. PROVE network investigators will then run the script on the PRoPERLy II database and provide the investigators with the results. Any publication from an additional analysis must follow the rules for publication denoted by the PROVE network.(23)

  • Registry:
    PRoPERLy II and the initial analysis described here (NCT06589427) and the original studies (ERICC, NCT01268410; LUNG SAFE, NCT02010073; PRoVENT, NCT01868321; and PRoVENT–iMiC, NCT03188770) are all registered at clinicaltrials.gov.
  • Publisher's note

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Publication Dates

  • Publication in this collection
    24 Mar 2025
  • Date of issue
    2025

History

  • Received
    31 Aug 2024
  • Accepted
    23 Dec 2024
  • Corrected
    05 Aug 2025
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