A Theory of Hegemonic Stability in South American Regionalism? Evidence from the Case of Brazil in UNASUR and Venezuela in ALBA

Alvarez, María Victoria

doi:10.1590/S0102-8529.2019430100003

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Research Articles • Contexto int. 43 (1) • Jan/Apr 2021 • https://doi.org/10.1590/S0102-8529.2019430100003 copy

A Theory of Hegemonic Stability in South American Regionalism? Evidence from the Case of Brazil in UNASUR and Venezuela in ALBA

Uma Teoria de Estabilidade Hegemônica para o Regionalismo Sul-Americano? Evidências do Caso do Brasil na UNASUL e da Venezuela na ALBA

Authorship SCIMAGO INSTITUTIONS RANKINGS

Abstract

Both Brazil and Venezuela structured their foreign policy agendas in the early 21st century on the projection of their respective leadership in regional schemes such as UNASUR and ALBA, respectively, following an intermediate hegemonic strategy. The loss of dynamism of these post-hegemonic initiatives problematizes the relationship between regional governance and the role of regional powers. ALBA is a scheme contingent on the political cycle and political voluntarism intrinsic in Venezuela’s leadership. The bloc has lost members and relevance in recent years. As for UNASUR, most of its member states have withdrawn from the bloc and it is currently not operating. In short, post-hegemonic proposals lose dynamism and support once the leadership that promoted them weakens. A certain ‘hegemonic stability theory’ contextualized to South America with regard to the leadership of Brazil and Venezuela in recent years seems to be fulfilled: the decline in power of these countries helps to account for political reversals and changes in regional governance.

Keywords
South American regionalism; UNASUR; ALBA; intermediate hegemony; Brazil; Venezuela.

Regional Power Characteristics	Brazil	Venezuela
Willingness and role/perception	?	✓
Power of exclusion	✓	✓
Acceptance	?	✓
Resources	✓	✓
Material resources	✓	?
Ideational resources	?	✓
Activities and results	✓	✓
Structuration regional governance	✓	✓
Sufficient ✓– Insufficient X – Fluctuant?

Country*	Area (km2)	Total Population (in millions, 2005 est.)	Total Population (in millions, 2019 est.)	GDP (2005 in millions, US$, 2010)	GDP (2017 in millions, US$, 2010)
Brazil	*8,511,965*	*186.13*	*211.05*	*891,634*	*2,055,512*
*Venezuela*	*916,445*	*26.43*	*28.52*	*145,514*	*255,093*
*Argentina*	*2,780,400*	*38.89*	*44.78*	*200,622*	*637,486*
*Bolivia*	*1,098,581*	*9.23*	*11.51*	*9,549*	*37,509*
*Chile*	*756,626*	*16.18*	*18.95*	*122,965*	*277,081*
*Colombia*	*1,141,748*	*42.65*	*50.34*	*146,566*	*309,191*
*Ecuador*	*283,560*	*13.83*	*17.37*	*41,507*	*104,296*
*Paraguay*	*406,752*	*5.82*	*7.04*	*8,735*	*29,435*
*Peru*	*1,285,216*	*27.87*	*32.51*	*76,080*	*211,403*
*Uruguay*	*177,414*	*3.32*	*3.46*	*17,363*	*59,180*

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[1] María Victoria Alvarez is an Associate Professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations of the National University of Rosario (UNR) in Argentina, the Director of the Study Group on the European Union at the UNR and the Academic Coordinator of a Jean Monnet Project (Erasmus+ Programme). She has been a Visiting Scholar at the Universidade Federal do Paraná (Brazil), the Jean Monnet EU Centre of Excellence–University of Pittsburgh (USA) and at the Laboratory for Interdisciplinary Evaluation of Public Policies, Sciences Po–Paris (France). Her research areas of interest include European Union politics and institutions, Euroscepticism, EU-Latin America relations, Latin American regionalism, and comparative regionalism. Her latest publications include ‘“Stranger Things”: The Future of Latin American Regionalism’ (Conjuntura Austral, September 2020).