A influência de eventos políticos sobre a população rural usando o modelo VAR: Eventos da Romênia

Dumitru, Eduard Alexandru; Sterie, Maria Cristina; Dragomir, Nela

Eduard Alexandru Dumitru

conception and writing of the manuscript

critically revised the manuscript

approved the final version

Research Institute for Agriculture Economy and Rural Development, 61 Marasti Blvd, 011464, District 1, Bucharest, Romania.

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2199-7834

Maria Cristina Sterie

conception and writing of the manuscript

critically revised the manuscript

approved the final version

Research Institute for Agriculture Economy and Rural Development, 61 Marasti Blvd, 011464, District 1, Bucharest, Romania.

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5879-7284

Nela Dragomir ^*E-mail: nela.dragomir@usamv.ro. *Corresponding author.

conception and writing of the manuscript

critically revised the manuscript

approved the final version

University of Agronomic Sciences and Veterinary Medicine of Bucharest, 59 Marasti Blvd, District 1, Bucharest, Romania.

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6480-1208

E-mail: nela.dragomir@usamv.ro. ^*Corresponding author.

Editors: Rudi Weiblen (0000-0002-1737-9817) Janaína Brandão (0000-0002-3044-3473)

DECLARATION OF CONFLICT OF INTEREST

The authors declare no conflict of interest. The founding sponsors had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript, and in the decision to publish the results

AUTHORS’ CONTRIBUTIONS

All authors contributed equally for the conception and writing of the manuscript. All authors critically revised the manuscript and approved of the final version.

Figure 1 Chronology of the main events influencing the rural population. Source: Own processing after: STANCIU, 2019STANCIU, M. Economic and Social Policies to Combat Poverty in Romania in the Last Century. The Romanian Economy, A Century of Transformation (1918-2018), Proceedings of Espera, p.233-244. 2019. Available from: <Available from: https://www.peterlang.com/document/1050203 >. Accessed: Nov. 10, 2022.
https://www.peterlang.com/document/10502... ; MACK et al. 2018MACK, G.; FINTINERU, G. A. Do Rural Development Measures Improve Vitality of Rural Areas in Romania? AgroLife Sci. J., v.7, p.82-98. 2018. Available from: <Available from: https://agrolifejournal.usamv.ro/pdf/vol.VII_2/Art10.pdf >. Accessed: Nov. 10, 2022.
https://agrolifejournal.usamv.ro/pdf/vol... ; MIHAI & MINEA, 2021MIHAI, F. C.; MINEA, I. Sustainable Alternative Routes versus Linear Economy and Resources Degradation in Eastern Romania. Sustainability 13, n.19, p.10574. 2021. Available from: <Available from: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/19/10574 >. Accessed: Nov. 10, 2022.
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/19/105... ; RAZVANTA, 2020RAZVANTA, F. The role of European funds in developing and sustaining rural entrepreneurship in Romania. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, v.14, p.134-148. 2020. Available from: <Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X1630417X >. Accessed: Jul. 3, 2022.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar... ; DINU et al. 2020DINU, M. et al. Accessing European funds for agriculture and rural development in Romania for the 2014-2020 period. In Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Business Excellence (ICBE)-Business Revolution in the Digital Era, p.717-727. 2020. Available from: <Available from: https://doi.org/10.2478/picbe-2020-0068 >. Accessed: Jul. 3, 2022.
https://doi.org/10.2478/picbe-2020-0068... ; TOPLIŠEK et al. 2022TOPLIŠEK, A. et al. Path dependency and partisan interests: explaining COVID-19 social support programmes in EastCentral Europe. East European Politics, v.38, n.4, p.641-661,2022. Available from: <Available from: https://doi.org/10.1080/21599165.2022.2122046 >. Accessed: Nov. 10, 2022. doi: 10.1080/21599165.2022.2122046.
https://doi.org/10.1080/21599165.2022.21... ; POPOVICI et al. 2018POPOVICI, E. A. et al. Land concentration and land grabbing: Implications for the socio-economic development of rural communities in south-eastern Romania. Outlook on Agriculture, v.47, n.3. 2018. Available from: <Available from: https://doi.org/10.1177/0030727018781138 >. Accessed: Nov. 10, 2022.
https://doi.org/10.1177/0030727018781138... ; STERIE et al. 2022STERIE, M. C. et al. The Influence of Ukraine’s Foreign Grain Trade through Romania on Prices, Commodities 1, n.2, p.152-166. 2022. Available from: <Available from: https://doi.org/10.3390/commodities1020010 >. Accessed: Jan. 3, 2023.
https://doi.org/10.3390/commodities10200... ; CONSTANTIN et al. 2015CONSTANTIN, C. et al. Similarities and dissimilarities between the EU agricultural and rural development model and Romanian agriculture. Challenges and perspectives. Land Use Policy, v.44, p.169-176, 2015. Available from: <Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.08.009 >. Accessed: Jul. 3, 2022.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.201... ; IBĂNESCU et al. 2018IBĂNESCU, B. C. et al. The impact of tourism on sustainable development of rural areas: Evidence from Romania, Sustainability 2018, v.10, n.10, p.3529,2018. Available from: <Available from: https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103529 >. Accessed: Jan. 15, 2023.
https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103529... .

Variable	Abbreviation	------------------------Definition------------------------	----------------------Rationale--------------------
Average monthly wage in agriculture ($)	AMWA	Net nominal earnings are obtained by subtracting from gross nominal earnings the employees' compulsory social contributions (social insurance and health insurance contributions payable by employees) and the corresponding tax.	Although, agriculture is the main activity in rural areas, the majority of jobs are seasonal, impacting on the income stability of the population. Incomes are also considerably lower than in other sectors of employment (TUDOR et al. 2022TUDOR, V. C. et al. Labour implications on agricultural production in Romania. Sustainability 2022, v.14, n.14. 8549, 2022. Available from: <Available from: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/14/8549 >. Accessed: Jan. 10, 2023. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/14/854... ).
Number of departures from rural areas	NDRA	Persons who have changed their place of residence within a certain period of time by moving to another locality.	It is considered to be a major factor in the depopulation of rural areas, caused by political decisions (fall of the communist regime, EU accession) and low living standards (DUMITRU et al. 2021DUMITRU, E. A. et al. Sustainable Development of the Rural Areas from Romania: Development of a Digital Tool to Generate Adapted Solutions at Local Level. Sustainability 13, v.21. 11921, 2021. Available from: <Available from: https://doi.org/10.3390/su132111921 >. Accessed: Nov. 10, 2022. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132111921... ).
Number of employees in agriculture	NEA	Represents the average number of employees comprising persons employed under a fixed-term or indefinite contract of employment/employment relationship (including seasonal workers, manager or administrator) whose contract of employment/employment relationship has not been suspended during the reference period and who work in agriculture, forestry and fishing.	In rural areas of Romania, the main occupation of the inhabitants is focused on agricultural activities (TUDOR et al. 2022TUDOR, V. C. et al. Labour implications on agricultural production in Romania. Sustainability 2022, v.14, n.14. 8549, 2022. Available from: <Available from: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/14/8549 >. Accessed: Jan. 10, 2023. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/14/854... ).
Rural population	RP	Represents all people with Romanian citizenship, foreigners and non-citizens, who have their usual residence in Romania and who live in rural areas.	The rural population is the main component of the countryside. Maintaining the rural-urban balance is necessary in order not to disrupt food security, the environment and urban agglomeration (TUDOR et al. 2022TUDOR, V. C. et al. Labour implications on agricultural production in Romania. Sustainability 2022, v.14, n.14. 8549, 2022. Available from: <Available from: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/14/8549 >. Accessed: Jan. 10, 2023. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/14/854... ; DUMITRU et al. 2021DUMITRU, E. A. et al. Sustainable Development of the Rural Areas from Romania: Development of a Digital Tool to Generate Adapted Solutions at Local Level. Sustainability 13, v.21. 11921, 2021. Available from: <Available from: https://doi.org/10.3390/su132111921 >. Accessed: Nov. 10, 2022. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132111921... ).

	-----------AMWA----------	-----------NDRA-----------	------------NEA------------	--------------RP-------------
Mean	241.346438	147.9274	185.7114	9787.111
Median	210.395158	149.144	97.637	9896.426
Maximum	608.134634	185.642	608.753	10596.63
Minimum	53.8211297	103.955	66.634	8730.078
Std. Dev.	172.586977	18.99028	168.1501	651.6334
Skewness	0.52906702	-0.07769	1.474147	-0.14138
Kurtosis	2.06521312	3.06976	3.683689	1.41039
Jarque-Bera	2.57490415	0.037467	11.83149	3.367137
Probability	0.27597304	0.981441	0.002697	0.18571
Sum	7481.73957	4585.748	5757.054	303400.4
Sum Sq. Dev.	893587.943	10818.92	848233.4	12738782
Observations	31	31	31	31

Lag	--------LogL--------	---------LR--------	--------FPE-------	--------AIC-------	---------SC--------	--------HQ--------
0	-609.874	NA	6.58e+14	45.47218	45.66416	45.52927
1	-461.399	241.9600	3.67e+10	35.65919	36.61907^*	35.94461
2	-437.264	32.17982	2.19e+10	35.05661	36.78439	35.57037
3	-424.644	13.08750	3.59e+10	35.30697	37.80266	36.04907
4	-387.612	27.43064^*	1.30e+10^*	33.74909^*	37.01268	34.71953^*

Root	-------------------------------------------------------------Modulus-------------------------------------------------------------
0.812809 - 0.458801i	0.9333571796887468
0.812809 + 0.458801i	0.9333571796887468
0.893202 - 0.053606i	0.8948094032942269
0.893202 + 0.053606i	0.8948094032942269
-0.039333 - 0.875438i	0.876320928074878
-0.039333 + 0.875438i	0.876320928074878
0.462538 - 0.729168i	0.8634968044121081
0.462538 + 0.729168i	0.8634968044121081
-0.653721 - 0.559212i	0.860272275877136
-0.653721 + 0.559212i	0.860272275877136
-0.381090 - 0.768489i	0.8577904348624961
-0.381090 + 0.768489i	0.8577904348624961
0.669784 - 0.311058i	0.7384902766628394
0.669784 + 0.311058i	0.7384902766628394
-0.648210 - 0.223742i	0.6857383170227114
-0.648210 + 0.223742i	0.6857383170227114

------------------------------------------------------Null hypothes is: No serial correlation at lag h------------------------------------------------------
Lag	LRE^* stat	df	Prob.	Rao F-stat	df	Prob.
1	37.99737	16	0.001	5.266709	(16, 9.8)	0.005
2	20.02304	16	0.219	1.404561	(16, 9.8)	0.299
3	12.85995	16	0.682	0.704415	(16, 9.8)	0.742
4	15.33573	16	0.500	0.913505	(16, 9.8)	0.579

-----------------------------------------------------------------Dependent variable: AMWA----------------------------------------------------------------
Excluded	Chi-s q	df	Prob.
NDRA	13.81108	4	0.0322
NEA	13.51380	4	0.0458
RP	14.00944	4	0.0047
All	42.33431	12	0.0247
-----------------------------------------------------------------Dependent variable: NDRA-----------------------------------------------------------------			0.0247
Excluded	Chi-s q	df	Prob.
AMWA	11.68644	4	0.0432
NEA	13.76754	4	0.0081
RP	15.37304	4	0.0511
All	24.87188	12	0.0154
-------------------------------------------------------------------Dependent variable: NEA------------------------------------------------------------------			0.0154
Excluded	Chi-s q	df	Prob.
AMWA	14.464198	4	0.0468
NDRA	14.335599	4	0.0625
RP	15.997485	4	0.0199
All	45.797282	12	0.0430
-------------------------------------------------------------------Dependent variable: RP--------------------------------------------------------------------			0.0430
Excluded	Chi-s q	df	Prob.
AMWA	16.852243	4	0.0439
NDRA	13.788274	4	0.0354
NEA	14.206503	4	0.0788
All	45.87702	12	0.0036

------------------------------------------------------------------------Variance Decomposition of AMWA-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Period	S.E.	AMWA	NDRA	NEA	RP
1	30.3397	100.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
2	47.2142	98.7340	0.4481	0.7279	0.0899
3	58.4620	94.0746	2.8846	2.0972	0.9436
4	67.1888	91.7171	3.7781	3.2678	1.2369
5	74.1349	90.6074	4.0764	3.7139	1.6023
6	80.4417	89.8589	4.2007	4.0572	1.8831
7	86.2082	89.2791	4.3381	4.2435	2.1393
8	91.5907	88.9155	4.4326	4.3298	2.3221
9	96.6293	88.7314	4.4968	4.3196	2.4521
10	101.3903	88.6901	4.5299	4.2481	2.5319
-----------------------------------------------------------------------Variance Decomposition of NDRA----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Period	S.E.	AMWA	NDRA	NEA	RP
1	14.0053	7.8193	92.1807	0.0000	0.0000
2	15.9233	6.6896	82.0914	4.2271	6.9919
3	16.7819	7.7757	76.2170	9.1006	6.9066
4	17.0270	8.4678	74.5860	9.4890	7.4572
5	17.2733	10.0520	72.6462	9.8644	7.4375
6	17.4675	11.3588	71.3117	9.8746	7.4549
7	17.6448	12.7394	70.0481	9.8403	7.3722
8	17.7936	13.9577	69.0013	9.7419	7.2991
9	17.9315	15.1201	68.0253	9.6376	7.2170
10	18.0579	16.1827	67.1431	9.5309	7.1432
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------Variance Decomposition of NEA----------------------------------------------------------------------
Period	S.E.	AMWA	NDRA	NEA	RP
1	15.1151	2.6938	10.6022	86.7040	0.0000
2	20.2396	1.5943	6.5266	85.7474	6.1317
3	26.4219	1.0059	5.2901	83.9254	9.7785
4	31.8185	0.7777	6.1921	80.3099	12.7204
5	36.0737	0.9045	6.9446	78.1187	14.0323
6	39.1951	1.2348	7.6448	76.3011	14.8192
7	41.4550	1.7700	8.1866	74.8978	15.1456
8	43.0562	2.4086	8.6158	73.7124	15.2632
9	44.1907	3.1079	8.9218	72.7208	15.2496
10	45.0001	3.8119	9.1341	71.8725	15.1816
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------Variance Decomposition of RP---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Period	S.E.	AMWA	NDRA	NEA	RP
1	27.8151	15.2148	17.0083	8.4421	59.3348
2	58.8941	37.6582	4.6312	18.5998	39.1108
3	89.9299	45.4742	4.1773	18.6417	31.7068
4	118.1691	53.1448	5.1121	16.6270	25.1162
5	142.6453	60.0412	5.6140	13.8152	20.5295
6	164.5351	66.0019	5.6803	11.3533	16.9646
7	184.1924	70.7444	5.5628	9.4002	14.2927
8	202.0079	74.4577	5.3429	7.9284	12.2710
9	218.2264	77.3342	5.0967	6.8284	10.7406
10	233.1122	79.5812	4.8587	5.9962	9.5640

[1] E-mail: nela.dragomir@usamv.ro. ^*Corresponding author.

Brasil

Brasil

A influência de eventos políticos sobre a população rural usando o modelo VAR: Eventos da Romênia

RESUMO: