Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the incidence of occupational accidents among beneficiaries of the National Institute of Social Security in Brazil: an interrupted time series study

Impacto da pandemia de COVID-19 na incidência de acidentes do trabalho entre segurados do Regime Geral de Previdência Social no Brasil: estudo de série temporal interrompida

Impacto de la pandemia de COVID-19 en la incidencia de accidentes de trabajo entre los asegurados del Régimen General de Seguridad Social en Brasil: Estudio de series de tiempo interrumpido

Abstract

The scope of this study was to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the incidence of occupational accidents among beneficiaries of the National Institute of Social Security in Brazil. It was an interrupted time series study, using data on occupational accidents registered by the National Institute of Social Security from 2015 to 2020. The analysis used the Prais-Winsten generalized linear regression model. The results revealed an immediate reduction (β1=-0.02, p<0.05) and a change in trend (β2=-4.46, p<0.05) in the incidence rate of occupational accidents per 10,000 employment links in Brazil and all its macro-regions when the Public Health emergency was declared due to SARS-CoV-2. In the months following the declaration of the Public Health Emergency of National Importance due to COVID-19, the incidence increased (β3=0.49, p<0.05), approaching the levels observed before the pandemic. The average monthly number of accidents decreased from 11.53 to 9.08 per 10,000 employment links after the declaration of the COVID-19 emergency. These findings indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic has modified the trend and magnitude of the incidence rate of occupational accidents in Brazil.

Key words:
Occupational health; Occupational accidents; Interrupted time series analysis; COVID-19